Betting markets in everything

by on November 19, 2010 at 10:47 am in Economics | Permalink

There is a royal wedding on its way and so Arrow-Hahn-Debreu have been put on notice:

Here is the fill list of what is currently on offer for the big wedding:

– Colour of the Queen’s hat (Ladbrokes offer a best price 4/1 on blue)

– Location of the wedding (Westminster Abbey is the hot favourite across all bookies, with Betfair offering the best price of 1/10)

– Month of the wedding (May is the current market leader, 2/1 with Ladbrokes)

– Bouquet specials (a lovely market this one, with just Victor Chandler offering 1/6 that it will be caught or 7/2 that it will be dropped at the key moment, Ricky Ponting style!)

– Best man (Harry the clear favourite, 1/20 with Betfred and Ladbrokes)

– Kate to say ‘Obey’ in her vows (5/6 yes and no with Stan James, so it could go either way)

The favored locale for the honeymoon is Kenya and for the "royal stag do," Scotland.  There are more bets at the first link and for the pointer I thank Chris F. Masse.

1 Owe Jessen November 19, 2010 at 7:17 am

One more interesting tidbit: Apperently there has been insider trading in the market for the engagement of William:

2 Yancey Ward November 19, 2010 at 8:24 am

I bet I don't care about the wedding.

3 jmo November 19, 2010 at 9:22 am

The British establishment is starting to take hits in public opinion over being insensitive to the problems associated with the Great Recession (cf the reacton today to Lord Young's remarks).

750 million people watched the wedding of Charles and Diana back in 1981. I'd assume the audience for this wedding will be well north of a billion. An all day commercial for British tourism that's seen by more a billion people? That's worth doing right.

4 jmo November 19, 2010 at 9:54 am

@jmo: Did 750 million really watch the Charles/Diana wedding? Often these worldwide ratings statistics are bogus (counting every person who could potentially watch the wedding not every person who actually did, same thing happens with the Super Bowl or the World Cup ratings).

If they are using the same methodology, then we can estimate the value of the media exposure. If a 30 second superbowl ad is $2.6 million, then the marketing boost from a lavish royal wedding is likely to offer good value for money.

I'm not in marketing but I'd expect that many British brands would pick up a boost from the wedding as well. Mini, Rolls Royce, Burberry, Jaguar, Land Rover, British Airways, etc.

5 dank November 19, 2010 at 11:56 am

Ricky Ponting style? Herschel Gibbs' was more notorious.

6 Tim November 19, 2010 at 3:11 pm

The (related) market I find most surprising, on Paddy Power, is for the next crowned monarch:

Prince William shorter than Prince Charles?

7 Mike Robb November 20, 2010 at 2:00 am

@ Tim – that is a very good spot. Surely there is no way that William will be the next monarch unless something tragic and unknown happens to Charles before the Queen dies? Assuming good health, there is very little chance Charles would not be King, even if only for a short time.

8 David November 22, 2010 at 6:28 am

@ Richard, 2 and 3 won't happen (there is no 'they', and kings tend to believe in succession in accordance with tradition [i.e., it's a job for life] because if you question any aspect of it you end up questioning the whole thing). So the price reflects 1 alone. It may well be fair on that basis, given the relative lifespans of Windsor men and women.

9 Amy November 25, 2010 at 6:01 am

I initially found it interesting that you should know who Ricky Ponting is, Tyler. And then I realized that you were probably just copying-and-pasting it from the VC site?

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