It’s now up. Maybe it’s “old news” by now, but the chances of the eurozone holding together have never looked smaller, even since two or three days ago. It’s clear, if anyone had doubts in the first place (I didn’t), that no eurobond and no major package of truly committal aid will be forthcoming. The next question is, when Greece goes, how strong a pledge do the remaining nations receive for EU/German aid? “Not so strong” is my current prediction, in which case we will work our way through a few dominoes, for better or worse. In that case, I wonder if Spain and Portugal would do better to leave with Greece or shortly thereafter. I don’t imagine that the treatment of “the Greek precedent” will make anyone have a warm and fuzzy feeling about the process of transition.
Don’t forget to note the remarks about Ireland on p.2.