How will the price-specie flow mechanism operate in Cyprus?

by on March 18, 2013 at 7:53 am in Economics, Uncategorized | Permalink

If you imagine Cyprus as a closed system, the levy is deflationary.  Prices will fall, and for the purposes of argument, let’s say they fall ten percent (just a number).

That deflation likely will crush the economy, but many individuals will find the real value of their bank balance intact, at least when it comes to spending in the home market.  In this regard much of the incidence of the levy is quite indirect.  The most obvious effect is that purchasing power command over imports falls immediately.

From the first-order static effects alone, it is not clear that the chosen program hurts the poor more than would exchange rate depreciation under a floating rate system.  That too lowers the command of bank balances over imports.

To the extent Cypriot bank deposits are proportional to wealth (a debatable proposition, and at sufficiently high levels of wealth the surplus may all go abroad), the initial levy is actually progressive in its impact, at least relative to taxes on income.  Wealth inequality is usually much more pronounced than is income inequality, so a linear tax on a proxy for wealth will be more progressive, perhaps considerably more progressive.

Many of the most regressive effects will come from the second-order economic devastation, unemployment, and so on.

Of course Cyprus is not a closed system.  Still, I would think in the short run and probably in the medium run too, foreign money and foreign labor and tourists are now somewhat afraid to enter Cyprus, thus there will be a persistence of the deflation.  The deflation should be strongest on the side of the non-tradeables.  Exporters are likely to do better than workers in the service sectors.  The ongoing negative income effects, from the secondary consequences of the levy, will muddy predictions.

Since the levy has been a surprise, I do not see a “Ricardian” argument that the value of the bailout offsets the deflationary pressures.  The bailout had been expected anyway, plus much of its value is reaped by parties other than Cypriot consumers.  Nonetheless the “transfer” is running in two directions here, and not just one.

There are many tricks and traps in the analysis, and numerous other angles to consider.  These issues were debated a good deal in the 1920s (see Jacob Viner, the section on the transfer problem), and also by Mill and Torrens in the 19th century.

1 joshua March 18, 2013 at 8:10 am

Wiki says Cyprus imports are 4x exports.

2 Roy March 18, 2013 at 8:12 am

But Cyprus is not a closed system, it is a very unclosed system.

3 Hugh March 18, 2013 at 8:50 am

“To the extent Cypriot bank deposits are proportional to wealth………….”

I lived through a similar levy in Italy, albeit with a far lower %age charge. The levy is anything but fair. Almost certainly some poor widow sold an apartment last week, and the proceeds are still on her account waiting to buy a smaller property. She will be lumped together with the Russians/oligarchs/money-launderers are taxed accordingly.

4 Insight March 18, 2013 at 9:41 pm

If (hypothetically) the levy is deflationary as Tyler suggests, then her new apartment will cost about 10% less than her previous one, leaving her in the same net position, or better.

5 Maurice de Sully March 19, 2013 at 2:43 pm

She would have received that 10%savings had she simply put her money under the mattress. She is disadvantaged for having made the deposit.

One who is contemplating putting his or her money in a bank just got a look at a potential “downside” of that decision that may change their willingness to deposit. Is that such a great idea on (OK… near) a continent that is full of struggling banks? It looks like we will get to see.

6 londenio March 18, 2013 at 8:51 am

Update: Banks closed until Friday.
What is the rational explanation of people getting angry at Germany/Merkel?

7 DocMerlin March 18, 2013 at 2:21 pm

“What is the rational explanation of people getting angry at Germany/Merkel”

Its not like they live in a democracy (the EU is extremely undemocratic) and anger at their own government would do any good, so they look for an outsider scapegoat to preserve local cohesion.

8 ThomasH March 18, 2013 at 8:59 am

If the effect s deflationary, it would seem that tourists would be more willing to go to Cyprus. Will they think that their cridit cards will not be accepted?

9 Mark Thorson March 18, 2013 at 9:19 am

Will currency controls prevent leaving the country with any money? Assuming they don’t just seize it on arrival at the airport, of course.

10 Tim Lee March 18, 2013 at 9:39 am

What makes you think there will be capital flight? The levy has been enforced, I highly doubt there will be a future Cypriot levy, I can’t see too many Russians withdrawing their money now

11 Mark Thorson March 18, 2013 at 11:08 am

I was referring to tourism. If you can’t leave with the money you brought in, you wouldn’t want to go there. They might not be confiscating cash from tourists now, but a government that would take money out of people’s bank accounts might do anything. They probably wouldn’t hold tourists for ransom, but then again . . .

12 JWatts March 18, 2013 at 3:54 pm

I highly doubt there will be a future Cypriot levy, I can’t see too many Russians withdrawing their money now

I think a depositor would have to be an idiot to take the chance there won’t be a future levy.

13 mavery March 18, 2013 at 4:19 pm

The relevant question is where the next levy is likely to be. If the Russians had their money in Cyprus, presumably it was because they didn’t want it in Russia. Presumably they still don’t. Is a levy now more likely in Cyprus or in the next most convenient place for them to store it? Is the loss in convenience worth the increase in potential risk?

That at least is the rational way to look at it. I would tend to think a lot of folks will pull their funds out of spite if nothing else.

14 londenio March 18, 2013 at 9:56 am

I think if you have your money in a shoebox under your bed, you can do whatever you want. Bank deposits are frozen.

15 Jmo March 18, 2013 at 8:09 pm
16 gregor Hansen March 18, 2013 at 9:26 am

I feel rather silly asking this but can someone explain why this would be deflationary? Would the tax mean the credit multiplier goes in reverse?

17 Pete March 19, 2013 at 8:07 pm

Don’t feel silly… it would have been nice if Cowen had connected the dots better. Here’s my explanation: The bank levy reduces wealth, which leads to a decrease in consumption (negative wealth effect). The fall in consumption leads to inventory levels piling up, which causes firms to cut prices and/or reduce output to reduce the unintended inventory accumulation. The falling prices = deflation!

18 Bill March 18, 2013 at 10:22 am

When a government purchases bank stock, or makes a capital infusion in a bank to keep it from going under, and then later initiates austerity because the government “debt” is now too high, wealth holders benefit at the expense of taxpayers and those who paid in taxes believing they would receive the benefits they were promised before the government purchase of bank debt, bank stock, or support for bank debt write off.

Not as progressive as the Cyprus model, which taxes wealthholders to protect the banks and smaller depositors.

I hope the Cyprus model works. Now, if we could just follow the Swiss model and have investment bankers face clawback or receive their compensation in shares of the banks illiquid bad debt, we might line up incentives in both the banking and investment banking sectors.

19 Bernie Madoff March 18, 2013 at 11:37 am

Bill, the ‘moral consequences’ of where the bail out (or bail in) comes from should be secondary in nature to the likely economic effects this will cause.

I fear the consequences of this bail in will only threaten to accelerate future bank runs. The next time rumors start to circulate about trouble at a financial institution in the Eurozone depositors will factor in the risk they too will face a deposit levy as part of a workout. The rational response is to pull deposits out as fast as possible.

The bank levy has set a very dangerous precedent

20 JWatts March 18, 2013 at 3:58 pm

The rational response is to pull deposits out as fast as possible.

The banks are paying very low returns. It would seem to be irrational to keep any money in a suspect banking system beyond short term needs. How much would it cost to have cash placed into a Safety deposit box?

21 Jmo March 18, 2013 at 8:10 pm
22 mw March 18, 2013 at 12:13 pm

Fair enough. Even Krugman accepted that inflationary losses were greater on depositors in Iceland than this tax, assuming it’s somehow really the end. But as you point out I think everyone’s much more concerned about the lack of a devaluation to prevent devastating unemployment.

23 Ian March 18, 2013 at 2:15 pm

“That deflation likely will crush the economy, but many individuals will find the real value of their bank balance intact, at least when it comes to spending in the home market.”

Why would the real value of their bank balance remain the same if the government just extracted 10%? That makes zero sense. Did you mean the nominal value will remain the same as countervailing deflation makes the purchasing power about equal to pre-levy value?

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25 Doug M March 19, 2013 at 11:59 am

The Cyprus bailout raises two questions for me.

Why does Cyprus need its own banks. Can’t Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse and JPMorgan provide all of the banking services that the Cypriots need?

If they don’t need their own banks, then why not let the local banks fail? Because too many Cypriots have their assets at these local banks and failure would create a money vacuum. So, my second question, why does the government of Cyprus feel the need to bail out anyone byond the depostis of its citizens?

Screw the foreign depositors. If they want insured deposits they shouldn’t be looking to Cyprus for higher yields.

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For more information or to book the car. It’s well worth taking a cable car to the client’s resort.

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