Assorted links

1. Globalizing hobbits?

2. The future of the Republican Party?

3. Should there be a European Monetary Fund?

4. Jonathan Gruber's new estimates for how much the tax exclusion of health insurance matters.

5. Sri Lankan beggar.

6. Curling win probability table (for baseball here).


Re:#2, I don't think so. People typically become more conservative as they age. So even if the GOP has lost the young, it will get some of them back later on. The real question is, what is the combined effect of changes within generations, together with changes in the age distribution, e.g., fewer young, more old. The net effect is ambiguous.

All the GOP has to do is the right thing. That is make Medicare and SS not ponzi schemes, or pay-as-you-go if you prefer. Then the young will not expect them as they get old and they can walk the cat back into the bag.

We are helping my in-laws with their retirement decisions and my wife(!) mentioned how interesting it is that SS is a big part of their retirement whereas in our planning SS doesn't even factor.

Ryan - How do you know the problem is with the game itself, and not just the teams on which the data was constructed? If a lot of the matches on which the data were constructed were between a very weak team and a very strong team, the win percentages for a given advantage could be exaggerated.

What percentage has read Rothbard now versus 20 years ago?

When it gets to 5% revolution will be at hand. R and D will be meaningless.

At this point mobile phone penetration in Sri Lanka is quite high, but mobile phones have always been a status symbol there. In the late 1990s there was a thriving market in fake mobile phones. If you couldn't afford a real one you could buy a cheap lookalike and walk down the street pretending to have an important conversation.

Re:#2, I don't think so. People typically become more conservative as they age.

True. On the other hand, this doesn't necessarily translate into a majority of any given cohort voting for the GOP. Here is the 2008 election broken down by age:

Obama McCain %age of voters
18-24 66 32 10
25-29 66 31 8
30-39 54 44 18
40-49 49 49 21
50-64 50 49 27
65+ 45 53 16

The 65+ category went for McCain but not by a huge margin. And remember that McCain was treated by GOP insiders as a liberal in all but name before he got the GOP nomination. Even the victories that the GOP does win among retirees are contingent on fielding candidates who will not question SS or Medicare.

Assuming the economics of the present do not utterly destroy the future, I do not understand how the leadership of the GOP does not see the necessity to proactively shape the future of the party with the left leaning younger generation of today. A socially liberal, fiscally conservative party line could very well prove to be a juggernaut (think Guiliani style Manhattan Republican).

As a third party ideal has repeatedly failed, the party embracing this aesthetic right now will plant the seeds necessary to hold sway over what will very soon become the voting majority.

Under the auspices of a hypothesis that the evolution of social values will put an end to the crippling need for Republicans (most notably in the South)to pander to the fringes who vote based on a single tenet (read Abortion), a clear cut platform with strong and simple ideals could emerge.

I was rambling, and will stop - because I was just forced to listen to Barney Frank and Maxine Waters in that order. And though I can't put my finger on the specifics of why it seems telling, someone has left the big screen on behind Bernanke in the hearing room, and it says, "Black Screen".

Comments for this post are closed