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If I'm reading the Spanish article correctly, it's not that the number of foreclosed homes will triple, but the number of foreclosed homes for sale will triple. Apparently the previous accounting rules encouraged the banks to hold on to foreclosed homes while waiting for the value to recover, and the new rules discourage that. I'm not 100% that I trust my interpretation, though, since it would usually make sense for the bank to avoid foreclosing if they could still get some money out of the lender, if they're not going to be turning around and selling it.

Why does anyone still listen to Taleb?

It's kind of sad that after reading #4 I think that there are probably still people out there that sees that piece as listing additional VICES perpetrated by organized crime.

Taleb is a maroon.

I have to think Taleb can't be entirely serious here. He's doing the same thing everyone does with predictions: filtering the future through his personal view of the world. He wants a future of anti-fragility and this is what that looks like, I guess. To me, it looks a bit too "Snow Crash" for my liking.

And I really hope he's wrong on this one.

I like Taleb generally, but feel that he must have now jumped the shark.

Love the 'Snow Crash' reference. Taleb seems to be imbibing little too much of his own Kool-Aid.

I think 2036 could be a lot like now, only China will be the new U.S., India will be the new Germany, and the U.S. will be the new Japan (maybe UK)...

Taleb jumped no shark. He never got that far.

I agree with Niederhoffer's statement on Taleb: "He learned nothing."

Teleb has an eccentric view of risk and risk management. Rather than think of the recent crisis as a "black swan" event, it might be more useful to think of it as serial professional malpractice. For example, falling home prices have recent historic precedent Who can forget the S&L crisis of the '80s? Only those who willfully refuse to remember. Santayana wins again.

Nevertheless, the idea that long term survival requires one be "black swan" resistant has merit if one stops focusing on the black swan per se. If one focuses on the shock rather than the trigger, you have a chance to make a system more resistant by establishing your boundaries. It's basic systems engineering.

This is not rocket science, but it is used by rocket science.

Bring the Irish horses here. The Irish have FANTASTIC horses!

Bill N, from what I recall Taleb has not described recent events as a "black swan". The 1987 stock market crash is his favorite example. Scott Sumner might agree with him on that. I agree though that it is rather hard to take some of his stuff seriously. If you want some good critiques of him you can try Eric Falkenstein.

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