Monday assorted links


What do betting markets say about whether a deal will still be on the table/relevant when the referendum is held?

No idea but I'm kicking myself for not putting some money on the yes vote when the referendum was first announced.Odds have really swung fast to favor of a yes vote

It's pretty wild. I was looking at the odds yesterday (Sunday) evening, and it was fairly close (implying something like ~55% odds of a Yes vote). I have no idea what has happened since then to swing the odds so wildly.

The EU will allow Tsipras to crawl back to the table if the vote goes against him. One can wonder, however, what might happen if the Syriza starts to realize the Yes vote is going to win. Lots of popcorn to be consumed in the next week.

"They found that in several types of car crashes, male-to-male accidents are underrepresented and female-to-female crashes are overrepresented, suggesting that our perceptions of fellow motorists are critical."

It would be thoughtcrime to conclude that female-to-female crashes are overrepresented because females are inferior drivers, so it must be "our perceptions of fellow motors" that are to blame.

Without further context, your indignity is unjustified. There are 4 types of accidents (male = m; female =f):
(m - m),
(m - f),
(f - m),
(f - f)

If males were better drives, and the academics were simply this over with some PC, you might expect that all male at fault (m-m, m-f) accidents were under represented. The article does not specify this. If male at fault accidents occur at statistically different rates between (m - m) and (m - f) drivers, then the authors may be able to develop a reasonable hypothesis to test.
That is not to say there aren't differences between male and female drivers, but your indignity comes a bit prematurely, I believe.

"Without further context, your indignity is unjustified.."

So, you don't know anything, but you're upset that he stated an opinion different than yours. You probably could have made the same point with less pseudo-math.

I've already been through the data. so I'm not guessing.

3. Maybe Americans get uneasy when Germans boss other countries around?

Also, the sympathy doesn't cost Americans any $$. Unlike other Europeans.

This is the answer. It's easy to be objective and rational about a choice when the outcome doesn't affect you. Humans only have problems making good choices when it's *our* choices we have to make.

But aside from that general case, I think there might also be a more specific case in that Europeans seem to be far more willing to be openly hostile to foreigners, which mixes badly when the guys holding the purse strings and the guys who need the money are separated by national boundaries. It's an easy dividing line for in-group/out-group psychology, PLUS there's money involved.

+1 to Rahul's comment.

A huge -1 to your comment Nick: "It’s easy to be objective and rational about a choice when the outcome doesn’t affect you." Telling the Europeans that they should spend their resources indefinitely and that is the rational choice is unbelievably pretentious/egotistical. Who are you to tell them that their well considered decision on how to spend their resources is irrational?

Also, nice work on the thinly veiled racism charge. Good job. Anything other slurs you wish to submit?

Finally, have you personally given to the Greek charity?

Rahul's answer is also the first one I thought of and is #2 on the list at MoneyIllusion. The other six answers also seem pretty reasonable to me. The world is complicated and multicausal.

... except for answer #3, which is just ***cking stupid.

I'll add a less important reason:

From my anecdotal experience it seems more acceptable in Europe to hate "outsiders" than in America.

That's interesting.

I'm Australian, and my national vanity was tickled when some Iranians gushed about how much more welcome they felt in Oz than in Europe. My priors were that Australia, NZ, Canda, US and to a lesser degree other English-speaking countries are more welcoming that continental Europe.

Now I live in Germany, and I have no complaints about the reception. It's true that they are more formal and self-concious around foreigners. Germans are more likely than Australians to ask me silly, unprovoked questions about India; but they are terribly nice about it.

About India?

If I didn't Sri Lankan, even I would think I think I looked Indian. That's not something I would say of most Sri Lankans, though I expect not many Germans would make the distinction.

Bah! Comment editing!

I meant to say "If I didn't know I was Sri Lankan". Here my identity being defined by birth and ancestry. Where as "I am Australian" refers to my citizenship and preferred cricket team.

Do you reckon that the poms will whip the ozzies this time around ?
My anecdotal evidence shows that in Europe (france/germany/ italy) ones ethnicity matters more than ones passport. not so much in oz.

That depends on which country, and even in which region... Try Poland vs Portugal vs Germany ... very different ways of welcoming outsiders...

74% chance of a YES outcome is not the same as predicting that 74% of Greeks will vote YES.

I don't think that was ever implied.

Fairly certain Tyler meant:

5. Betting markets say 74% [chance] Greeks will accept the Eurogroup deal on the referendum.

and not

5. Betting markets say 74% [of] Greeks will accept the Eurogroup deal on the referendum.

Good. Because that is not what the link says.

Anon beat me to it.

It means that people with 74% Greek genetic makeup will vote YES with 100% certainly.

74% of every Greek citizen will vote YES

And on #4, you should be looking at the CDS, not the actual rates. The CDS popped significantly, though it is still well below where it was at the height of the crisis in 2011-12. Also, spreads between the periphery and the Bund are up significantly more.

3. It's an easy way to rack up points against austerity in America, even though it's far more complex than that.

Also, Americans do not feel the insult of having been lied to, in order to enter our monetary union.

Let's not be naive...Who lied to who? They (EU burocrats) KNOW very well what they are/were doing....

Call me simplistic but if someone is so distracted by whatever object is infront of them that they drive their car into said distracting object they simply should not have a license. I would cut a young driver say with under a year -- or perhaps even 18 months -- experience) some slack here but after that the brake reaction has to be automatic and instinctual not some action that requires deliberate, conscious thought. And this is from one who thinks diving is, in fact, an *activity* and not a passive experience for the person behind the wheel.

#3 What Americans? All the right leaning sites I visit jeer at the Greeks. A lot of quoting of Thatcher on other people's money.

Its left leaning pundits following Krugman's lead I would think.

"5. Betting markets say 74% Greeks will accept the Eurogroup deal on the referendum."

This seems at odds with another report:

"William Hill have closed their market on whether Greece will leave the Eurozone before 2016. 'In such a volatile situation in which events can move very quickly it is very difficult to be confident that our odds are accurate.The only option people have been wanting to back for the past couple of days is that Grexit will happen this year and as we can no longer hope to balance our market so we have decided to pull the plug' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe. ...

CLOSING GREXIT 2015 ODDS......2/9 NOT to happen; 3/1 to happen."

Greeks taking it up the ass, who saw that one coming?

Never heard of anyone sliding on interest rates. But I guess if they are low enough they could be a hazard.

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