Friday assorted links


#3 Utter nonsense. Even if there were a reliable way to read the average person's emotions, Trump is by definition very far from the average person. Winning the United States presidential election is also so far beyond what normal humans experience that we have no idea what to expect.

Not mention the obvious opportunity to cherry pick photos of Trump's face. Although this is such low-hanging fruit that I assume there's some b.s. hedge against it buried in some paragraph.

"Even if there were a way to read the average person's emotions..."

If I had to guess, I would say irritable.

Now defensive. Then irritable again.

You think people who can send rovers to Mars cannot figure out how to read even just a few salient indicators for estimating these things?

Disturbingly scientific, to the extent that certainly constitutes a major threat to freedom.

I think Trump was pretty beat after the nonstop push at the end of the campaign. He also knew that the swamp is deep and wide and the world was a mess. Note that he didn't do a victory tour but went right to work.

I can't believe TC finds this noteworthy- but then as a longtime reader, what do I expect?

No victory tour ?

That was over a month later and seems to have been pretty short - your link only notes one city.

Because Tyler was so sad that Trump won, he assumes others were too --
including Trump himself. And Tyler is clearly not over it.

I would pay absolutely anything for video of the few hours it took for Hillary to progress through: Realizing she might lose this Unprecedentedly Historic Election, realize she was going to lose it, and then officially losing it. Absolutely anything. Come on, staffers, there is money to made here...

Maybe he was worried about promises he'd made to foreign nations.

There is little evidence of Trump being particularly busy by Presidential standards.

Remember Tommy Carcetti's face when he won his upset bid for Mayor of Baltimore in Season 4 of The Wire? It wasn't unrestrained joy.

Trump, above all things, wants to be famous.

President of the United States in this era [and with all the controversy] raises his fame to space. For decades after he dies, people will discuss and argue about Trump.

Why would he be sad about being not merely a famous person, but the most talked about person on the world?

Why are those athletes so sad? They just won the big championship game and now hey are all crying and hugging each other. I conclude that they want to say "hi mom" but that their mothers are dead, making them sad and causing them to cry. I'll post some pictures of crying at funerals vs. crying after winning big games in a future post.


Trumps sadness stems from the fact that his election means he's now between a rock and a hard place. The Russians have those pee tapes, so the us agencies allow him no deep intelligence access. The same is true for other executive functions. Why do you think he doesn't go to intel meetings?

Its an open secret but terrible conundrum for our nation. Unless video imitation technology gets good enough to offer the prez plausible deniability, he's headed for impeachment (probably on unrelated minor charges, the truth would be to hurtful).

Sho yeah

He peed on someone? Why would anyone care about that? Is that in the top 100 most embarrassing things he has done?

Agreed. I rewatched Trump's victory speech right after the win was official. He's definitely not giggling and smiling. I agree that the faces found look sad or strained, but Trump looks and feels 100% into what he is doing. Trump put a lot of effort and passion into his campaign, his heart is absolutely in what he's doing. And my heart is in what Trump is doing. So far, things have turned out well, I hope that continues.

Maybe I'm just in a bad mood but I find "studies" like #1 and #3 completely wasteful. Same thing with the "super powers" study mentioned a few posts ago. Maybe we are too rich and we don't even understand the difference between real knowledge and entertainment...

If we can comvince bees to sting people where it hurts the least, it all will have been worth it.

What hurts most and how to gauge emotions? Both of which may be used to control people?

The public should be aware of what progress is made in such knowledge. I fear it would lead them to a form of fear that would lead most to just stick their head firmly in the sand.

Trump's number one campaign supporters is a hedge fund manager with psychometric profiles on 200 million Americans. Relevant.


1. A yellow jacket sting feels like being shot with a 22 caliber pistol. We have yellow jackets in the low country, the hatching season coming up shortly. The thing about yellow jackets is that they nest in the ground, so it's not unusual to accidentally step on the nest, which unleashes a sortie of angry bees. Not one bee sting but dozens. It's most unpleasant. I keep a supply of Benadryl handy just in case of an allergic reaction.

3. At one time I thought Trump ran for president as a hail mary to avoid his creditors, but it now appears he ran for president so he and his wife can live apart. They seem to loathe each other.

Have you been shot by a 22?

I haven't. Although I have been stung a bunch.

I was going to ask if anyone knew of similar studies for wasp stings.

I have been stung, on the back of my palm (resulting in immediate swelling), and I would compare it to being hit by a catapult (had that experience as a kid.)

Well, I've been stung many times by hornets and especially yellow jackets, and shot by a pellet gun. The gun in question fired metal pellets at approx. 400 fps.

A .22 short can have a muzzle velocity of 1000 fps. A .22 long might have a muzzle velocity of 1600+ fps. Anecdotally a pellet will break through the skin of a person but a .22 round can, depending, pass through. It is just so much bigger, faster and more damaging. Some hitmen (hit people?) kill their targets with a .22 double tap to the forehead.

(Related: there was a Pittsburgh artist who had himself shot in the arm by a friend with a .22.)

I do not believe for a second that being shot with a .22 can compare to a wasp sting. Nor should anyone else with a iota of sense. What kind of fools do you take us for Rayward?

Some of the readers of this blog don't seem to understand the South. We are a gun toting, hard drinking bunch, even the yellow jackets carry guns. They are small insects and only carry the 22 caliber, but it has a nasty punch.

Genuine lol.

Was you ever bit by a dead bee?

Kudos. Your comments are more readable than the typical liberal gibberish exhibited herein.

With all the ticking time-bombs the Bushes, Clintons and Obama inflicted on America and the World, how could a normal human being be happy to become president?

Plus, Trump cannot be as utterly depressed as are Crooked Hillary and millions of liberal losers (redundant).

Using the scientific method we could determine if that hurts worse than a yellow jacket sting. Someone could bust a .223 cal. round up your ass. Added benefit: it could help with your Trump Derangement Disorder as the round hits you between the eyes. FYI that Benadryl won't help with gun shot wounds.

Has a week passed yet without Trump telling multiple flagrant and obvious total lies that he refuses to admit to?
Except for the particularly threatening remarks, most of what you say is repackaged propaganda parrotted many many millions of times in particular before the election.

3. Part of the problem with this analysis is a lack of comparison with other winning candidates. Here is one picture of Bill Clinton on election night 1996:

Notice that his family also seems to express their joy more openly than he does.

# 1 Haven't see it here before? Or were those reports from civilians? If it were, do experts and laymen agree about which body part hurts the most? Do knowing lots of things about bees change pain perception? I have a terrible bee problem, but I have always been stung at hardened places such as arms and forearms.
# 2 Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!
# 3 Which kind of people elect this kind of person?
#4 I have nothing of value to add to the conversation here.
#5 "NASA detained a 75-year-old woman selling a tiny moon rock. An appeals court says she can sue"
Giving NASA the power to hunt and detain American citizens in American territory probably was a bad idea. Doesn't the Posse Comitatus Act forbid this?
# 6 "Ariely, who is a happy user of Shortwhale, says that this additional information has been a boon because he normally would receive a high volume of email but little in the way of useful context." Some blogs are like that. Remember when this was an economics blog?
#7 Oh, God! Well, my cryogenically preserved future EM self will buy it at the used books bin at some American garage sale for 5 yuans.

5. No, Posse Comitatus prevents using our federal military for law enforcement purposes.

These FLEOs are with the Office of the Inspector General, and nearly every government agency has them. They investigate crimes within the purview of their agency operations but also act as Internal Affairs for the agency, investigating fraud and crime by employees. These OIG offices are usually very small.

Then, they are like the sections the Brazilian regime kept working at umiversities and state corpoations between 1964 and 1985 to jail dissidents.

#3 fits the most sensible narratives. And in related news Ivanka Trump has an upcoming official visit to Germany.

It's Princess Ivanka Trump. Please address her appropriately.

Good point, it's still a few more years before she's President-Elect.


Wonder what role Chelsea would have played in the Clinton administration.

There is no precedent for packing the White House with kids and son-in-laws. Therefore I have no expectation that anyone else would have done the same.

Besides, Hillary had a deep bench of professional staff. No need for kids to bail her out.

>Hillary had a deep bench of professional staff. No need for kids to bail her out.

Fat lot of good that did her.

I doubt she needs to be "bailed out" while watching Matlock reruns these days.


According to "Shattered", which I have only glanced at in a bookstore and read excerpts from on the internet, Hillary blamed her staff for losing to Obama in 08 and she blamed her staff for losing to Trump this past election.

Either she's wrong, in which case she has bad judgement re: people she (mostly) appointed, or she's right that they were incompetent, in which case why did she (help to) choose them?

Another school of thought is that Hillary was just a crap candidate.

The most fascinating revelation from the book is that Bill Clinton and other highly ranked,trusted HRC supporters contrived to have anti-Hillary Democrats undermined or defeated, during the Obama years, as she was positioned for her presidential run.

"Hillary had a deep bench of professional staff"

Just like O's. lol.

The most interesting thing about this little thread is the jump from the reality of the Trump presidency to "things we don't like about Hillary."

Those things do not improve the situation. They don't excuse Republicans, who had a whole list of saner and more prepared choices.

#5 Moon rock sale sting.

Not only do corporations treat people badly (airlines e.g.) but governments do too.

#3: My lay opinion is that Trump never expected to win, and has been going through something akin to the five stages of grief since he got inaugurated. He seems to be in the bargaining stage at this point.

You know, that is an absolutely perfect description..... of yourself.

...but what am I?

Ha! Take that! BURN.

I pre-ordered Dan Ariely's Irrational Game maybe a year an a half ago.

The amount of emails I received with updates on every last inane detail of the production process was incredible.

Myabe he was just lashing out

What did you expect?

#5 NASA Thugs

....WhoNu that NASA had its very own "special agent" police force that could assault & detain peaceful, law-abiding Americans anywhere in the country ?

We just don't have enough Federal cops to support robust space exploration.

Moon-Rock collecting was absolutely unnecessary & outrageously expensive
Apollo Program " " " " "
NASA is " " " "

What if she had been selling some pot she grew in her backyard?

"Norma Cheren was scheduled to have an operation on her hip this week.

Instead, the 79-year-old southeast Atlanta woman sits in the Fulton County jail after police say they discovered more than 9 pounds of marijuana in her home last week."

"STONEWALL, Okla. - An 83-year-old woman stunned everyone in town, including authorities, after police were tipped off she was selling drugs out of her house in Stonewall in Pontotoc County.

A lot of things come up to this quaint little white and yellow house.

Bird feeders attract birds, and according to police, something else was attracting quite the crowd.

"They found several pounds of marijuana," Vincent said. "They found a little .22 pistol."

Authorities say it was high-grade marijuana, and some of it was individually wrapped for distribution.

"Nice!" One neighbor said. "She's a little ole bitty lady."

Maxwell was charged three counts of unlawful distribution of CDS within 2,000 feet of a school, two counts of unlawful use of a telecommunication device to facilitate a felony and one count of possession of firearm in the commission of a felony."

"Margaret Holcomb, an 81-year-old woman from Amherst, Mass., grew a single marijuana plant in her garden, tucked away behind the raspberries. She used it to ease the ailments of old age: glaucoma, arthritis and the occasional sleepless night.

So on the afternoon of Sept. 21, a team of Massachusetts State Police and Massachusetts National Guard troops sent a helicopter, several vehicles, and a handful of troopers to Holcomb's house to chop down the plant and haul it away in a pickup truck.

This summer, a task force consisting of National Guard troops and state troopers used a helicopter to aid in seizing four marijuana plants from 81-year-old former cancer patient Paul Jackson on Martha's Vineyard, according to the Martha's Vineyard Times. Like Margaret Holcomb, Jackson didn't have a medical marijuana license.

"I figured what I was growing was such a small amount, what the hell was the big deal?" Jackson told the newspaper.

In 2014, marijuana eradicators in Georgia raided a retiree's garden after mistaking okra for marijuana."

Note, the new Attorney General has attacked Obama and Holder for failing to crack down on pot growers, sellers, and users.

5. "At no point was she informed that all lunar material is the property of the federal government and that possession was a crime, the court said."

For someone 75 years old, that hardly an excuse because illegal trading in moon rocks has been in the national news many times.

And it hasn't been considered a defense for, say kids picked up by immigration for deportation who had grown up in the US since age 3 thinking they were fully American just like everyone else.

"One grabbed the paperweight from Davis’ hand. Another clutched Cilley by the back of his neck and held his arm behind his back in a bent-over position, the court said."

Well, that happens to black people all the time, so what's the problem?

"Conley contended that as a government agent he was clearly immune from liability."

Well, that position seems to be Trump's when it comes to border agents who have killed Mexicans in Mexico, or who grab US citizens and hold them for days to be deported.

Why should a white woman deserve better treatment than non-white men?

Why should a white woman get more sympathy for violating a law of Congress than a non-white man growing some pot in his backyard for family and friends to enjoy?

Well for a start the legal protections of citizens are greater than those of non-citizens. You may not like this, but law enforcement does have a greater legal burden when dealing with citizens; it is the job of the legislature or the people themselves through a constitutional convention to change that rule. Legally, she is entitled to different burdens due to her citizenship.

When it comes to restraint, that comes down to legally recognized differences in threat. A 70 year old man with no prior interaction with law enforcement who happens to be seated indoors is not a threat to law enforcement and almost certainly can be restrained without an arm lock. If you suspect him to be armed, then you should have him place his hands on his head, frisk him, and then let him stand or sit. He was neither a flight nor safety risk that would warrant restraint; the vast majority of young men (regardless of race) who are restrained are vastly more likely to be flight and safety risks.

Lastly, there is difference between enforcing a policy decided on high and how you choose to enforce it. Unless Obama had a declared policy of using physical force to subdue all suspects dealing in contraband moon rocks then this agent made a decision about what level of force and detainment to use. When following orders the bar is much higher for what is considered lawful conduct for the agent on the ground. When exercising your own judgment you bear more responsibility.

But hey, well established legal precedent should not get in the way of a good screed.

You cannot reason with Mulp. It's all the fault of reaganomics and besides, hey, look at that shiny irrelevant thing over there!

They shouldn't get any better treatment than black youths, but they did. The 9th circuit just opened the door to hundreds of Bivens and section 1983 claims.

Bivens claims are generally disfavored by conservative justices on the USSC. This case could be a vehicle toward rolling back constitutional tort claims. The court has already limited existing Bivens claims to the precise fact patterns of previous cases.

I think this case poses a substantial threat to qualified immunity that will stifle the actions of law enforcement officers if allowed to stand.

"a substantial threat to qualified immunity"

Let us hope! QI is an abomination.

"that will stifle the actions of law enforcement officers"

Good cops do not need QI. Its just a license to abuse.

Ignorance of the law is no excuse for [non LEO] regular people. Why should cops get a free bite of the apple?

QI is not an abomination. It only ensures that people do not get sued for doing their jobs.

The Q means QUALIFIED. A citizen can still sue a police officer who violates their rights, provided that the deprivation is CLEARLY ESTABLISHED in law. This is not the same as KNOWING the law. A police officer might be ignorant of clearly established law and will still be liable. By definition, if they abuse your rights they CAN be held liable.

I didn't read anything among the facts that was remarkable or unusual.

3. Buncombe.

The man is exhausted. He's trying to appear, and possibly is, very humbled and choked up with emotion. Both of these photos look like he is pleased, to me.

His mouth is upturned in a weak smile, but this is USUAL for Trump. Take a look at his RBF on his official photo. It is canonical in interrogation, lie detection, and profiling to measure observations against a baseline. The article doesn't even attempt to view a baseline except against OTHER PEOPLE in DIFFERENT SITUATIONS.

Very poor analysis, and the disclaimer in the first sentence betrays their true intentions. A polished presenter never leads off with an apology or an excuse.

I at first thought he was a little sad that he had not won by as much as he expected. As was I that day - not a huge Trump fan - but his opponent was so worrisome in so many ways, mainly ways that would do her no good, that I could not but feel saddened that she had triumphed even in beautiful places like New York, home of my youth, and New Jersey (Heaven on Earth in so many ways, and not heaven on earth in so many other ways). Ceteris paribus and all that. But I think your analysis is better than mine, Willitts, I have too good an opinion of the common sense of others, and that has often led me wrong. I voted for Trump too and I was sad that so many people voted for someone who clearly did not like them. Well it is just as much our country as theirs, isn't it - it is not like their stories are more important than the stories of those who are close to us and whom we love. So it is no big deal if my analysis of these people is wrong.

If you are interested in the history of that day, Michael Savage had an interesting afternoon interview with Trump on election day, during a half hour when the prediction markets were about to take what we mathematicians call an inflection point. He sounded sad. I don't think many people should research this in any detail, of course: Much better to spend your time rereading Shakespeare, or walking in the woods and fields near one's home: but I am just trying to help out those with an unusual level of interest in political history.

5. I cannot agree with the 9th Circuit panel's opinion that the plaintiff raised genuine issues of material fact.

When officers "grabbed" the neck of Davis' husband and bent him forward, this is a necessary and usual action to subdue a seated suspect. The fact that he was elderly is unavailing and received far too much credit from the panel.

Many suspects wet their pants during an arrest. Two hours in such condition is certainly uncomfortable, but not at all dangerous. Empathy for her condition is no excuse for stripping an officer of qualified immunity. The whole purpose of such immunity is to not blunt necessary and effective actions by law enforcement for their own safety and that of others.

Davis voluntarily underwent interrogation, thus prolonging her own detention. Voluntariness isn't usually a defense, but in this case the voluntariness contributed directly to the length of her detention which was a basis for the unreasonableness.

None of the things that the court said the officers "knew" is dispositive. Just because she told them these things doesn't mean they had an assurance of the truth of it. Lots of perps lie. But now, perps will have a greater incentive to lie because those facts will contribute toward suing the police officers.

I can recall several other Bivens' claims and 1983 actions that were far more uncomfortable than this where the 7th Circuit upheld qualified immunity.

Judges probably have vicarious sympathy for people who wet their pants. I've heard of several judges who wear diapers under their robes. Court is not a comfortable way to spend your day.

That said, this decision only permits Davis to prosecute her claim. It doesn't guarantee she will prevail. The officers will now have to defend against the suit. This is a dark day for law enforcement in the 9th. I wouldn't be surprised if the USSC grants cert.

"The whole purpose of such immunity is to not blunt necessary and effective actions by law enforcement for their own safety and that of others."

The case involves an elderly couple accused of a while collar crime that is petty and obscure enough that federal prosecutors didn't pursue it. What was the public safety justification for the arrest and detention? Law enforcement should be encouraged to make use of a summons or voluntary surrender in petty cases.

4. Here is a book written by a distant relative of mine who is particularly interesting. Basically, much of the East Bay got jump started by the 1906 quake. There are Victorian houses on Alameda Island that were built when Victoria was still queen.

#6. This author does seem to have ends and means backwards. Do you really need an app..... Why not just open your email inbox once or twice per workday?

I get about 40-50 emails per workday, and check my email (sender and subject lines only) at 7am and 4pm (some days I also check after lunch). Of the 40-50 emails, maybe 5 will get opened, and I will respond to 1 or 2 (on my train commute home). The remaining emails enter the black hole that is my inbox, and my life only gets better because I have such a black hole (coworkers learn that only emails of high importance get any response, so they eventually stop writing). If coworkers have something urgent, they can find me. Of course, not all workers are accessible in person, and many people have jobs where checking your email actually puts bread on the table (e.g. sales reps), but I would guess for the majority, email should trend towards the optional.

If I write 10 emails per week, I spend about 2 minutes per, or 20 minutes per week (a figure I can live with). When we all look back on our individual lives, nobody will care (or reminisce) about emails sent or received.

amendment: "nobody will care (or reminisce) about emails CORRECTLY sent or received".

The blunders will continue to be celebrated.

OT: Contrary to popular belief, students from Singapore, Korea, China and Hong Kong are slightly less competitive than those in US, much less anxious and performed better as well. The competition in Costa Rica is actually higher than those from East Asia.

The most complacent with least competitiveness and anxiety are those from Netherlands. If US is complacent, what about the rest of the world?

#6 - Emails - use filters and folders, set notifications only for important folders.

A really great email app for Android called Newton will let you do that. It is not free however....

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