Thursday assorted links

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#4 "One of the many benefits of being your own boss is that you can use your business as a platform to raise awareness about social issues". This reminds me that night clubs usually charge less for women. I wonder what social issue is being raised there... Also, I hope these owners are also only hiring women to do all the work, including any construction, electricity, cooking, accounting, etc. Finally, I hope they have a very liberal policy on maternity leave (no need to worry about fathers I guess).

"Also, I hope these owners are also only hiring women to do all the work, including any construction, electricity, cooking, accounting, etc"

Camille Paglia made a very good point about this some time ago that the practical world is not female, it's male. http://ideas.time.com/2013/12/16/its-a-mans-world-and-it-always-will-be/

Dudes make the world go round.

Sure, I was being ironic. I would be curious to see what is the economic impact this targeted pricing has on that business. Men are probably a much larger percent of customers they care about, so I see this as a very impractical strategy. Unless they make it up on publicity, which is possible I guess.

... it was mostly a publicity stunt. That female restaurant owner said she wasn't gonna kick any men out (deny service) if they declined to pay her "Man Tax"

Not to mention it would breach Australian law to charge a person more based upon there gender.

Although when it comes to employment, the laws provide an exception to anti-descrimination legislation stating that being a woman can be a legitimate job requirement. Not so for men, but who would want those jobs anyway!

"Dudes make the world go round."

No, it takes two to Tango.

But the sexes aren't identical. No matter what the Deniers may claim.

American society's fabric has collapsed. People bowl alone, people tango alone.

Melbourne is in America now? Well blow me down....

What part of Brazil is Melbourne in?

I was talking about the "it takes two to Tango" idea. It is not true anymore in America. The country is hopelessly divided by hatred.

Last two to Tango in Paris?

No, because it is a immoral movie, the Brazilian government did not allow in Brazil's movie theatres because Brazilians got morals and would never watch such a movie,

I would be very interested to see an economic simulation of what would happen if even 30% of men worldwide went on "strike". Economically vanished so to speak. I would like this economic model to take into account spool up of both female labor force and capabilities to fill in for these jobs taking into account current statistics. Female scabs so to speak.

Shit would get just as crazy if 30% of women went on "strike". Relax.

...."Melbourne is in America now? Well blow me down…."

Well if people speak mainly Spanish in Brazil , I don't see why America can't be down under.

You are pathetic.

Pathetic is honestly the best word to describe you.

"Shit would get just as crazy if 30% of women went on “strike”. Relax."

Why does everything always have to be equal with you people? Obviously men occupy the positions that make the physical world work and it isn't sexist to be honest about it should it come up (as it has here).

"You people" LOL

Just noting that you whiny manosphere types think only men do anything of worth. Women are different but just as important to a functioning society (and don't even get me started on the plot of "Lysistrata").

This guy was getting all pouty about the surcharge at this café, "what if all us boys took our ball and went home, huh?". I just wanted to note that women are people too. Different, but just as much people as larger, more physical men.

The alt-right are such snowflakes, I swear to god.

It is ridiculous how American society is falling apart: Man against woman, Jew against Gentile, Black against White, Catholic against Protestant, straight against gay, trinitarian against unitarian, poor against rich.

Yes I agree that statement is ridiculous, Thiago, just as it's ridiculous to say Brazil is anything other than a third world toilet.

Brazil is great.

"Giant by thine own nature,

Thou art beautiful, thou art strong, a fearless colossus,

And thy future mirrors that greatness.

Adored Land

Amongst a thousand others

Art thou, Brazil,

O beloved homeland!"

Meanwhile one just needs to read America's press to get a feel of the Divided States of America.

"Different, but just as much people as larger, more physical men."

Hear that faint sound? That's me having a mind-blown moment.

Re: the Lysistrata strategy

I held out on my wife once, for a few days. She didn't notice. Sigh. Perhaps I should have married a Brazilian woman...

As French thinker Auguste Comte (who influenced Brazil's adoption of the republic model) pointed out, marriage is mostly for the moral betterment of the couple, not for satisfying lust.

don't worry about the maternity leave, none of them will ever be getting pregnant. I sincerely hope their plumber charges them an additional 18% when he comes to fix their drain.

The social injustice is that today she's squandering her money, but her husband's.

I wonder at brave feminists that burst into tears at "the drop of a hat."

It's not only plumbers. It's SOP for auto mechanics, electricians, carpenters, appliance salesmen (women buy more extended warranties), etc.

Money quote from a European woman acquaintance, "American women are stupid."

Becuse the do not have maternal leave and generous benefits?

Meanwhile, here's a restaurant which offers a discount based on bra size.

http://www.bbc.com/news/amp/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-40851224

Now there's some fabric I could get behind.

#5 The man makes some very good points, can any here who is bullish on Tesla refute them? I think the corporate governance issues are significant are under discuss because Musk gets a free pass too often.

I wonder how many of these same arguments could have been made about Apple and Ipod/Iphone.

Not so many.

The big difference that trumps all others is that Apple was profitable for much of its existence. The iPod was a huge success before the iPhone.

Another big difference is that the Apple's product failures (Newton, Lisa) were merely ahead of their time. While batteries will get marginally cheaper, there is nothing like Moore's law in the electric car world.

Apple outsources to a mature manufacturing concerns, and does not need to raise money to build factories. Tesla relies entirely on a one-off factory bought at a fire sale, and the sourcing/manufacturing problem is core to Tesla's business, not to Apples.

I don't think Jobs ever made Apple buy his cousin's failed company. Except when they bought NeXT. :)

It does not matter whether Tesla as a company survives long-term or not, whether they are acquired or not, at whatever valuation. Their tech is real and unlikely to disappear. If they contribute to the spark that lights the fire of a new mode a transportation, that is all that matters.

There is nothing innovative about batteries and electric motors. That tech has been around forever, just like solar cells. It's just that big batteries are really expensive and so the vehicles are not cost competitive unless you get subsidies and regulatory breaks, and make your brand a status symbol. The minute the batteries become cost competitive, literally any car company could do the same thing.

Self-driving is new, but Tesla doesn't have the lock on that either, and everybody is getting into the game.

"The minute the batteries become cost competitive, literally any car company could do the same thing."

I think you are correct, but not any car company did do it. Tesla seems to have executed and delivered an innovative car while the major car companies were plodding along with incremental improvements.

Granted, I still won't touch Tesla's stock with it's extremely high price, but it's churlish to deny the company and the man credit for the successes that they've made.

+1

I am not sure I buy the argument about the Tesla stock being extremely highly priced. It is extremely risky, to be sure. However, if this is truly an automotive revolution the potential reward is also huge.

"I am not sure I buy the argument about the Tesla stock being extremely highly priced. It is extremely risky, to be sure. "

Yes, I think you are correct, but aren't those both correlating factors. The stock is extremely risky at the given price. But, if the price were 10% of it's current ask, it wouldn't be nearly as risky.

Actually the Tesla stock story is more about distributed electrical generation and batteries (remember they are now merged with Solar City). If Musk can somehow get solar to take the next step for homes and businesses, not just cars, the stock is actually very cheap. It's sort of like Amazon years ago when they sold books and CDs, they were expensive as hell then if that's all they were going to be doing.

JWatts, Of course, if it were cheaper it would be less risky. My point is that it may well be correctly priced or maybe even under-priced given the potential. If it goes down to zero with probability 1/2 and goes up by 10x with probability 1/2, you have a very positive expected return.

"JWatts, Of course, if it were cheaper it would be less risky. "

mb, my point was that saying a stock is too expensive and saying a stock is too risky are pretty much saying the same thing, since for a well traded stock they are generally heavily correlated.

I'm probably guilty of some poor terminology. When I talk about a stock being high priced, I'm implicitly saying that the stock is priced high compared to it's future likely return. IE, I expect that there is a substantial chance that the current stock evaluation won't provide a competitive return. I'm not actually referring to the nominal share price.

For example, I don't consider a Berkshire Hathaway A class share to have an extremely price, even though it's nominal price is 740 times the price of a Tesla share.

JWatts, of course, I agree that risk and how "expensive" the stock is are combined in the stock price. Still, I think they are distinct notions. For me risk is the probability of losing money. For a stock like Tesla it is quite high, since a serious mistake can potentially bankrupt the company. The "expensiveness" (for me) is the expected return. For Tesla it depends on your model, but can can be very large if the revolution is really happening and their execution is flawless with some reasonable probability.

Thus Tesla could be risky and inexpensive at the same time. I am not saying it is necessarily, just pointing out that this view is defensible.

JWatts, What is your definition of success?

You 27 year-olds were in diapers during the dot.com bubble. You should read about it.

He was certainly and hugely successful in gathering to himself several billions of dollars from uneconomical, unoriginal concepts and billions in taxpayer subsidies. One more "successful" man I think is Algore who did even better grifting with even more stinking, steaming bullshit: AGW.

Of course, you geniuses still can't wrap your gray matter around how Trump got elected. How can you be trust yourselves with this analysis?

"There is nothing innovative about batteries and electric motors. That tech has been around forever, just like solar cells."

There have been tremendous changes in batteries and solar cells. It was only 20 years ago that GM leased EV1 vehicles. They had lead-acid batteries in Gen I and NiMh batteries in Gen II. Even Gen II had a energy density of only 59 Wh/kg, compared to the best modern batteries at close to 300 Wh/kg.

More recently, the price of Li-Ion batteries (about 1/4th of a modern Li Ion battery) was reportedly cut approximately in half from 2014 to 2016:

https://thinkprogress.org/chart-of-the-month-driven-by-tesla-battery-prices-cut-in-half-since-2014-718752a30a42/

That's astounding change. (No internal combustion engine declined in price by 50% in two years!) And If anything, the price declines and technical improvements in solar cells have been even more dramatic.From 1977 to 2013, the price of photovoltaics declined by approximately a factor of 100.

Funny how people sometimes forget this point. Of course, it isn't always true. For example, the computer industry still hasn't recovered after Commodore Int. went bankrupt in 1994.

That is NOT at all what matters if the question is to decide whether to invest in the company at a given price.

"If they contribute to the spark that lights the fire of a new mode a transportation, that is all that matters."

Probably not to someone who has a significant amount of money invested in Tesla. :-)

@Brian: MySpace's story can be described with the very same words. So, is Tesla a MySpace or a Facebook?

#6

Location Location Location

HuNu it was better to be born in Beverly Hills than in the Sudan

We're so lucky to have Harvard professors explain the world

5. Cowen rejected Lucas and nobody noticed. Ghate holds onto the idea that investors are (or should be) motivated by economic fundamentals. Some fantasies are hard to let go. I recall the difficulty getting over Santa Klaus. The Republican establishment hasn't come to grips with the fantasy that Trump is qualified to be president, even though it's obvious he is a dangerous ignoramus. Investors haven't come to grips with the fantasy that Tesla is a real car company that will produce and sell millions of cars while generating enormous profits. Trump and Musk are showmen, which is all it takes to achieve success in a world that prefers fantasy over reality.

And the space rockets must be a figment of Musk's imagination, sort of like Santa Klaus? No success there, I suppose.

Profits = success, any other definition of success is not relevant.

"Some fantasies are hard to let go."

Shiller pinpointed the stock bubble in July 2013 too! S&P has earned 60% since...

http://www.newsmax.com/finance/InvestingAnalysis/Shiller-stock-market-bubble/2013/07/31/id/517991/

+60

A daft reading of Shiller, for daft people who will never read Chiller.

Nope, he's right. Schiller's CAPE model has been saying stocks are way too high for the last 6-7 years. If you'd listened, you'd be a lot poorer now.

Show me one place where Chiller made that guarantee about CAPE.

I swear this phone does slow Shiller to Chiller swaps after I proofread.

The opposite perhaps?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robert-shiller-interprets-what-the-cape-ratio-says-about-the-market-today-102737135.html

Did you read my link? Shiller has been hinting about bubbles for years. It's a bit silly to hint at a bubble in 2013, come back in 2015 (40% later) and hint again, and come back in 2017 (after another 20% increase) and hint yet again.

Play the game long enough, and sometimes he'll be right. And morons on the Internet will run around talking about how prescient the guy was cuz he was calling this shit way back in 2013.

The Republican establishment hasn’t come to grips with the fantasy that Trump is qualified to be president, even though it’s obvious he is a dangerous ignoramus.

Your kind turned the presidency over to a tyro who'd spent nearly 80% of his political career in the Illinois legislature, practiced law for less than 4 years, and collected a salary from the University of Chicago for 12 years without ever producing 1 scholarly paper (and teaching boutique electives). Areas of public policy wherein he was an acknowledged maven are listed below:

1.
2.
3.
4.

I'm afraid the 'unqualified' complaint is closed to partisan Democrats for a generation or two or three.

Qualifications here mean temperament, intelligence, character, probity. Even if you set aside comparisons of their resumes, where you can make a case against either man, Obama completely dominates in the qualifications that truly matter. Again, your hypocrisy is galactic sized. If Trump were a Dem, I doubt you would be so kind to him.

This has to be one of the stupidest comments you've made on this website. And I haven't even read that many.

Bottom line: Any newly minted lawyer, and most law students know more about how the government should be ran than Trump did on his first day in office. The most Freshman representative in Congress has more practical political experience. Even the biggest flunky from the Bush cabinet would be better qualified than our current President by a country mile.

Trying to sandbag Obama's accomplishments, when he had meaningful experience in public office coming in, managed to bring the country back from the worst economic crisis in 70 years, and actually passed meaningful legislation, only makes the flunky you're apologizing for look even worse.

Not to mention that Trump continues to act like he knows 'All the best words'. One thing he still has in common with Republicans is the dismissing of people with experience and expertise, lest they use real arguments to disagree with them.

when he had meaningful experience in public office coming in,

lol

managed to bring the country back from the worst economic crisis in 70 years

lol

and actually passed meaningful legislation

Well, I can't deny that Obamacare was meaninful, but the problem is that it's actively harmful and bad. Not much of an achievement to point to.

But he did create global peace!

Anyone can "lol" an assertion, but it's not an argument. Wrong again, Careless.

In other words, Obama entered the White House with 20 years of experience as an elected official.

Your trash talking about Obama's career as a practicing lawyer and his lack of academic publications smack of hypocrisy.

I can put my house on the market for $350 million too. That doesn't mean it's a meaningful market indicator.

That gives me an idea. Sometime in probably the next 3 years or so, I will be the executor of my (currently alive, but quite elderly) mother's estate, which consists mostly of 2 acres of prime Silicon Valley real estate. To attract free publicity, I should put it on the market for $1 billion or some equally absurd value. Act now, and I'll knock $100 million off the price!

You don't want to look desperate to sell.

Okay, no "Act now" offers. I was just thinking in terms of something silly that gets a mention in the San Jose Mercury-News or maybe local TV news.

Exactly. The Playboy mansion listed for 200M and sold for 100M.

#6

Time, time, time

It was better to be born after 1967 than before for the coming Great Age Reversal!

#1 and it's not even on the ocean front. Not worth it.

#1: Ross Douthat isn't the only one trolling Unz for ideas.

4. Just say you are identifying as female when you pay, if they don't give you the feminism discount accuse them of being anti-gender-fluidity!

For the win!

#2) Unions have been hacking the system to cause surge wages for ages. Apparently, the Uber surge pricing often lasts less than 5 minutes. Like many cartels, without an enforcement mechanism, the temptation to cheat can end up breaking them.

"2. Are Uber drivers hacking the system to cause surge pricing?"

The drivers are all agreeing to log out at a certain time in order create a temporary shortage of vehicles and have the surge pricing kick in. First, most people wouldn't consider that to be "hacking the system". Second, it's a self correcting problem. The drivers who log back in first (defect) will get the benefit of the surge pricing and those that wait too long will only get normal pricing and will have lost the revenue from the time they were out. It's a temporary Cartel, so it will only be as good as the Cartel can enforce behavior.

Gaming the system.
It depends on how many drivers are online at a given time and place. Under the right circumstances, there might be only few drivers around and they could potentially share the profits by taking turns collecting the surge price, especially if they are in communication via online chat groups, etc. You might have a group of a few drivers who regularly work the 3AM shift, who know there's only going to be 1-2 drivers around to take that rare ride from remote suburbia to the airport to catch an early flight.

#1 brings to mind the Biltmore in N.C. If I remember correctly, it's estimated to have cost $1B in today's dollars to build. 138,000 sq. ft. of living space, and originally sat on 125,000 acres of land.

#5 Is there a bigger current bubble than the hype behind American love for TSLA driving its price up? Just like the FrontPoint Partners in the Big Short did with visiting Florida homes, you should just cite some of the criticisms to a TSLA fanboy and wait for the load of hot air to unleash on you. A no brainer for such discussions: Features after features, already present (for years) in other vehicles and neglect of poor optics, poor quality and sheer impracticality (eg batteries getting cheaper isn't enough, what about environmental impact of them, charging times, charging cycles, weight, physical size...).

#4 Alledgely the decor of the said cafe. https://www.reddit.com/r/melbourne/comments/6rk00i/men_and_women_can_cringe_equally_seeing_this/

Anyone want a cup of hot tea with a tea bag?

They also have interesting fridge magnets for sale. Just page forward from the above article. Might be NSFW.

Sexism = saying statistically more men than women may be interested in computer science.

Progressivism = discriminating against all men.

#2. YES. I realized this last winter when I was trying to pre-schedule a 3AM ride to the airport.
The uber drivers I talked to in uber formus basically said that there is no real-prescheduling , the app simply sends out a request for a driver at the scheduled time. A lot of drivers said that at times like 3AM, they might just reject a request or log out until surge pricing kicked in because they might be the only driver around.

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