Saturday assorted links


4: Eh? This was too esoteric for me. The link leads to images of the Hotel Brosundet in Norway.

Yup. Beautiful hotel, though, I asked my wife and kids if they want to spend a week there. No idea what TC was talking about, of course.

If you click on link, it goes to, lowest price is 129, a very low equilibriaum price.

In truth, there is no such thing as an equilibrium price, since hotels often charge different prices for the same room!

It is true, but Trivago ( ) helps me to find the best deals.


I've been living in Colorado Springs for less than a year, but this year we've had some half-dozen cases of pedestrians striding into I-25 traffic in order to get struck by something hurtling up or down the road (18-wheelers look to be a popular choice--at least one fellow killed outright, another only seriously injured, a couple of others got into the median but couldn't decide on northbound or southbound lanes for an exit). I don't follow local news closely and still I've heard of these incidents.

Deer pose their own challenges to vehicular traffic here without aspiring suicides clogging up the roadways. Plenty of high-altitude jumping off spots to choose from, by comparison.

Such is life (and death) in America.

If you compared the U.S. homicide rate of only descendants of European origin (about 70% of the population) our homicide rate is the lowest in the world beating peaceful Canada and Japan. So what could possibly cause the relatively high homicide rate... Hmmmmm. Can't quite put my finger on it...

Do you have a link? I know it's low but lower than Japan?? Can't be

Brookings released a report on gun deaths broken down by race, sex, and suicide/homicide.

Firearm deaths among black men is 34/100k. For white men it is 17/100k. For women those numbers are 4/100k and 3/100k.

The overall firearm death rates are 19 and 10/100k. For blacks the homicide/suicide split is 82/14. For whites it is 19/77. So the firearm homicide rate for blacks is 16/100k and for whites is 2/100k. I don’t remember if they broke out non-Hispanic whites. If not, then 2/100k is a bit of an overestimate.

I thought this was comparable to Western Europe, but higher than Japan. But I don’t recall the numbers.

I suspect state and local laws have more of an effect on the suicide rate than homicide rate. Most guns used in homicides are obtained illegally, so high levels of guns in circulation, states with lax laws, and the ease of transporting guns across state lines means that local laws won’t matter much. Many suicides are impulsive, so limiting immediate access to firearms will likely reduce their use in suicides. This may explain why we see state level effects on suicide and not homicide and National effects on homicide.

That works out to homicide rates of 28/100k and 3/100k for black men and white men respectively.

So what could possibly cause the relatively high homicide rate... Hmmmmm. Can't quite put my finger on it.

Socioeconomic status?

By comparing white only rates with European rates you are eliminating a relatively poor segment of the US population from the comparison. Maybe (well, actually) you should the same with the European population.

Among other things.

I would argue that there are more poor Americans of European descent than there are of African descent. The problem does not seem to be Socioeconomic status.

Sorry about the HTML.

So even though there are far more white people in poverty and even though your argument is that somehow it is the poverty that causes blacks to commit 10 times the number of violent crimes. And when confronted with the illogic of your argument somehow none of that matters because of "percentages". Is that really your position???

My position is that since you can't understand a simple argument you are not worth talking to.

Go drink beer with your racist buddies.

2: Brazil is the country of the future...and always will be.

#2 Those "news" are fake, every bit as much as the news about how everyone would die at the Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games in 2016. There is no frightenedness, no leaderlessness or shocking pessimism. Quite the opposite, Brazilians have showed themseves time after time as levelheaded, generous, optimist and loyal people.

The Army was request only to provide protection and transport to key supplies. Brazil endured a 11-day transport strike and the cutting of fuel, food, medicine and hospital oxygen lines with remarkable calm and restraint. It was our Blitz. There was no violence. No skirmishes between Armed Forces and civilians. Quite the opposite, even strikers confraternized with the Armed Forces. The situation is under the most perfect control. There was no breakdown of public order. There were no Fergusons, no Tiananmen Squares, no Little Rocks, no Trials of Tears, no Bataan Death Marchs, no Dresdens, no Watts Riots. All in all, the State of the Nation is good, better than it has been in decades.

It is sad to see that, in the US, very well educated and very sophisticated cosmopolitan people have no sense of how much Brazil has progressed and how well things are going. These include people with PhDs in economics familiar with Davos for a regular economic meeting. Brazil is implementing economic reforms at neckbreaking speed. After four years of market correction (due to misrule by the last Administration), GDP is growing again, employment rate is rising, foreign investments are returning. It is morning in Brazil again.

Brazil's military is needed just to try to keep public order, though not being strong, courageous, and competent like the military under the late, great Pinochet, it amounts to little more than security theater.

It's no wonder that Brazilians want to tear down and rebuild every institution every generation because every institution built is inevitably corrupt, incompetent, and feckless, but what they fail to realize is that such is the metaphysical essence of Brazil, so it will be a sad, never-ending cycle of the same.

"Brazil's military is needed just to try to keep public order."

No, it is not. Brazil is not like America, where the President must call the Army to allow Black children to study!

It is not like America, where the National Guard must be called to restrain open rebellion of the exploited ones!

"though not being strong, courageous, and competent like the military under the late, great Pinochet, it amounts to little more than security theater."
It is a lie. Brazil has the strongest Armed Forces in South America. We, almost alone, defeated the tyrant López, who inted to be South America's Napelon and conquer Brazil.

A response that epitomizes the feckless essence of Brazil. Even the North Koreans are better at agitprop.

There is no fecklesness in Brazil whatsoever. Brazilians are as good in agitprop as anyone else. Probably better. The point is, we, morally speeking, have the higher ground.

Try again and at least aspire to raise Brazil to the level of mediocrity.

There is a lot of exageration. Evidently, Brazil is not perfect, but, all things considered, is very good. As famous Brazilian writer Afonso Celso pointed out in his book Por Que Me Ufano do Meu País (Why I am Proud of My Country), in Brazil, there isn't the racial hatred that, I say, fuels and poisons American politics. No Ku Klux Klans, no segregationism, no high-pressure hoses, no lynching. No Watt Riots, no Los Angeles Riots. No sense of despair, no opioid crisis. Brazil has the biggest affirmative action program in the history of the world. Brazil houses and feeds thousands of Venezuelan refugees.

The biggest and oldest AA program of the modern era is found in India, the world's biggest democracy, and yet you were just trashing India. Of course AA is a ridiculous policy, which makes it perfectly suited for Brazil.

Yes, Venezuela is one of the few places in Latin America that is more of a nightmare than Brazil is, so it's not surprising that Venezuelans are willing to take their chances in Brazil.

"The biggest and oldest AA program of the modern era is found in India."

Brazil nas the largest centralized affirmative action system in the world, with spots at universities and public jobs for Blacks, Native-Brazilians, poor people and disabled people.

"the world's biggest demoracy,"
India is not a democracy. It has no free press and Christians are hunted down by Modi's regime. Brazil is the second biggest democracy in the world, right after the USA.

"and yet you were just trashing India."
The country which has all the trappings and inneficiencies of light socialism and affirmative action, but allegdly has no social nets because letting old poor people is "virtuous" (and cheaper)? At least, I never helped the Pakistanis to butcher Indians and Bangladesh the way Americans did!!

"Of course AA is a ridiculous policy, which makes it perfectly suited for Brazil."Mo, it is not. It is part of our large-scale plans of social reforms.

"Yes, Venezuela is one of the few places in Latin America that is more of a nightmare than Brazil is, so it's not surprising that Venezuelans are willing to take their chances in Brazil."

Actually, Brazil is a rising power. President Temer has warned a group of investors that Brazil is advancing fast. Brazil has the fourth biggest HDI of South America and, ny far, the biggest economy. Brazilians can look forward to the future with hope and satisfaction.

Uttar Pradesh's population is equal to the total population of Brazil. More to the point, a centralized policy only makes a bad policy worse, which why the ever incompetent Brazilian government would adopt it.

As TC and others have pointed out, India among the BRICS has the most potential. Go long on India! By contrast, Brazil with its rampant corruption (making a mockery of Brazil being labeled a "democracy"), crime, poverty, and essential fecklessness is at the back of the pack with S. Africa (quite apt given Brazil's aforementioned social apartheid). Go short on Brazil!

Yet, Brazil is the rising star of South America. India is the Congo bordering Red China. Corruption is rare and Brazil and harshly punished. There are a former president, former governos and Congressmen behing bars. Meanwhile, Trump's solemn promises of draining the swamp were lies!!!!

I would have thought Brazil had the third highest HDI. Chile and Uruguay are higher, but who's third? Argentina? Seems unlikely after decades of chaos.

Chile, of course, is #1. Argentina was listed as #2 as of 2015. And Venezuela was #4. Only after Venezuela went into a tailspin did Brazil surpass it. Brazil is pathetic.

Yet, Brazil is number 4. And rising fast as American-backed Argentina colapses.

Brazil looks less awful only when others fail completely.

No, Brazil is strong anyway. As President Temer told a group of foreign invesrors, Brazil is advancing fast.

Advancing fast even more below the mean.

It is notnwhat he meant at all! He means Brazil is progressing fast as he implements he economic reforms. Happy days are here again.

But the Straussian interpretation of what he really means is that Brazil is going to hell in a handbasket. Short sell now!

1- Interesting. I don't think homicides include accidental deaths. Does anyone know how many people die from accidental gun injuries?

'Accidental' is a loaded term with regard to firearms. The CDC reports about 1000 accidental or negligent gun deaths per year. Although about a quarter of those are inditerminate.

Note that gun enthusiasts are quite harsh toward gun accidents and deaths - and are often at odds with Elmer Fudd type casual users' idiotic excuses. While no fans of gun control at all, enthusiasts support severe legal beat downs for those - including cops - who have gun 'accidents'.

My familiarity with guns started in my teens/1960's with heavy emphasis on safety. I am a Second Amendment fundamentalist. Gun safety is not accident, it's education, training and constant hard work.

Recently, an FBI agent accidently shot someone when his weapon fell out while he was dancing at a club. Wild West cowboys were big into gun safety. With their revolvers (Colt .45) they kept the next cylinder empty of a bullet so the gun would not discharge if it fell out of the holster.

Tragic: 40 years ago a friend was a federal law enforcement agent, One of his partner's three-year-old died b/c he left his loaded weapon within reach of the child who got up from bed before anyone else.
My conclusion LE and others don't get the safety training they vitally need.

#1 Why don't MR and SSC just make it official and merge into one site already? Slate Starginal Revolution or something.

Scott Alexander does a great job but I don't know about this one. Almost any discussion re guns in America is clouded because there's two vastly different gun cultures: the law-abiding owner and the criminal user.

And suicide stats themselves pose so many demographic oddities

I'm unsure what that account's point is.

It is ridiculous that as soon as gun control is even implicitely alluded to, some people just straight-up ignore pure data and its correlation, which is NOT to be discussed.

1. Just a fast glance, but the second highest suicide rate is called low? Because with guns it "should be" higher?

Hard to tell if it's 2nd or 3rd but it's certainly no outlier the way homicides are

The higher suicide rate in Japan is partly due to the elderly committing suicide at the near end of life rather than accept serious pain in the last few months of life.

Have a link to more on that? Given demographics, sure, median suicide age will definitely be higher there, how can we tell this is driving it?

5. No Trump Hotel in Singapore? I suspect Trump's son in law is negotiating a hotel licensing agreement. The clever young man that he is, I further suspect he is negotiating a hotel licensing agreement for a Trump-Kim Hotel. A win, win. Problem is that Trump always screws his business partners, Kim might not take it well, and the Great Summit may turn into the Great Nuclear War.

We are crazy for wanting/letting Trump talk with Kim about nukes, we are rolling nuclear dice.

5). ANSWER: Office 39

They make great methamphetamine, too. Jared as Royal Taster?

#4. No the equilibration continues.

Before this case, the most politic thing for the adminstrators to do was to implement the crazy standards symmetrically. This case shows that this can make them ridiculous.

The safe strategy going forward is to pre-judge which who can and can't be the villain and then justify every particular case from that "common-sense" point of view.

Boring set of links today. We need more politics on this blog. Something mean about Trump or Democrats to really fire things up. More confrontation, more competition, less mealy mouth academic papers about equilibrium please. Conflict is a fact of life, let's not pretend that we are such genteel creatures when deep down we possess animal spirits. To Alex and Tyler, get mean!

I disagree that that we need conflict, we need deliberation, but it is precisely the political environment which pushes that off the page.

Why wouldn't Alex and Tyler comment on trade deliberations? Because they are too crazy for deliberative discussion. Fiscal policy, same. Treaties and game theory, same.

Thus we have a preposterous siloing, in which the experts post position discussing issue don't, because it's gotten too crazy. The people with no expertise yuck it up with literal authority.

I need to watch my voice acquisition more carefully.

"Thus we have a preposterous siloing, in which the experts [in a] position [to] discuss an issue don't, because it's gotten too crazy. "

I think Kim just wanted to see if we would pay for his digs. Nobody would be dumb enough to fall for that....we're not sending Carter are we?

Perhaps North Korea is so poor they cannot afford a decent hotel in Singapore these days?

NorKor isn't poor

Thag, Brazil is the most wonderful country there is or ever was are ever will be! Brazilians are like Gods!!.....

Now shut up!!!

"Now shut up!!!"
So that is it. Anti-Brazilian propaganda, no matter how slanderous and vicious must gounanswered. Otherwise, people may find out Brazilians are human beings and deserve decent treatment. "Shut up, Jew! Enter the gas chamber, Jew!" Anti-Brazilianism is outpr generation's antisemitism.

"Brazilians are like Gods!!...."

Or, as the Bard of Avon said, "How noble in reason, how infinite in faculty! In form and moving how express and admirable! In action how like an angel, in apprehension how like a god! The beauty of the world."

Shakespeare didn't know any Brazilians.

We probably will never know. Anyway, it is clear he had in mind a kind of person very similar to what we call Brazilians nowadays.

3. Econ-o-tats.

Clearly you need a Laffer Curve with a voodoo icon.

And a simple but elegant: J. Galt?


if having to pick a gal, of whom was to give me attention, queen elizabeth, would very much be in my radar

nice long stretch she's had, in a very graceful manner, . . .

the man is super, bad ass, he's hitting on the queen

4) if only there was an existing system used to prosecute crimes we could fall back on in the absence of the services provided by Title-IX administrators...

1. Is a gun-free America really our goal? Could we not start simpler with better background checks, merging outdated databases, waiting periods, recording ammunition purchases, empowering the ATF to modernize. I just worry we are putting to much energy into an unrealistic goal.

Suicide is typically an impulsive act. If you do not own a firearm or have a history of mental illness/domestic violence that prevents a quick purchase which delays a spur of the moment decision. Suicide by other means requires real commitment because if you do it wrong you may end up alive but debilitated in some manner.

Homocide and suicide drive the conversation on guns because death is so shocking to our sensibilities, but nonfatal shootings are the elephant in the room. Women shot by their partner, young men shot by rivals, misfires or accidents. We need to use a big data approach to help pinpoint how gun ownership impacts all gun violence. Then we can talk about more restrictive policies.

Most Americans are moderates and don't want a gun-free America any more than they want a free speech-free America or anything else directly countermanded by the Constitution. But additional restrictions on gun ownership and use make perfect sense. I hope that is the direction we are going.

Muslims and white men are by far the groups with the largest numbers of mass shootings and acts of terror. Trump is working his Muslim ban through the courts but someone needs to remind him to institute a white man ban if he's serious about stopping terrorism and gun violence.

White men are actually underrepresented in mass shootings. Asians are overrepresented, and Hispanics are underrepresented.

1. I was surprised to the the US has a higher suicide rate than Australia. I definitely expected it to be much lower. US culture never struck me as one that would have a high suicide rate while in Australia our real national anthem is about a hobo who kills himself after the police discover he's stuffed a sheep into his tucker bag.

It's just a song. The American national anthem is about a war but we're not particularly warlike.

Well that's good to hear.

#2 - we dug our own graves. I don't see much hope for Brazil, either, mostly because there's a general consensus on bad policies involving the general public, the elites and our ruling class.

Corruption is not that much of an issue. We've simply run out of money.

We still have plenty of money. We have large valiuta reserves, among the biggest in the world and bigger than we ever had. We have the eighth biggest economy the world has ever seen, with a diversified and sophisticate industrial basis. The capital allocation mistakes have been purged by the market correction and the economy is rebounding.

#5: Mexico?

Many Brazilians have moved in to the Atlanta area over the past decade. The Brazilians I've met are wonderful people and their food is delicious.

But their Spanish is atrocious.

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