Monday assorted links


4. The juice is pretty good; nothing special about the burgers though. Traffic at the bottom of Décarie Boulevard is awful these days, so I won't be going back any time soon.

I had not heard of orange julep before, but even just the name invokes thoughts of the Orange Julius chain. The wikipedia article suggests but does not definitively state that orange juleps were inspired by orange julius.

I'm not sure how widespread Orange Julius was. It started in LA according to wikipedia and I've only seen it on the west coast, and it seems rarer now than it was decades ago.

I don't know who came up with the idea of blended juice drinks, made to order in a fast food format, but Orange Julius may have been the first popularizer of the idea, almost 100 years ago according to wikipedia.

Wikipedia says Orange Julius began in 1926 and the Gibeau Orange Julep in 1932, so probably the ideas arose independently. Both are currently present in Montréal.

The recipe sounds the same. I whipped up Orange Julius in high school for a dollar seventy an hour. Orange or Pineapple Juice or frozen Strawberries, plus Crashed Ice, plus Orange Julius Powder, in a blender. I was told that the powder was just dry milk and a raw egg was used until that was considered a health risk. So then the powder became both milk and egg.

On the manager's last day the recipe also included Bacardi Rum, for staff.

I worked in a mall between jobs once. I think I made $3.15 an hour. There was an Orange Julius and the punks would buy the eggs and use the whites to spike their Mohawks. I always thought it would be kinda rancid to wake up next to one of those guys.

Orange Julius was definitely here on the east coast. At least in New York.

Orange Julius was acquired by Diary Queen, so they aren't building any more stand alone Orange Julius's, but you can get them at any Dairy Queen.

Sometimes, you have to wonder if Prof. Cowen evens bothers to read the abstract, or if it is just a sly way of seeing if anyone is paying attention- Because this is hilarious - 'We find robust evidence that access to legal SSM significantly increased marriage take-up among men and women in SSH.' Maybe the follow up research can explain that low rate of marriage take up in SSH before legal SSM was available.

Um, people in same sex households got married all the time before SSM was legal. SSH households are formed by heterosexuals too, and gay people have always had the option of marrying a member of the opposite sex.

>gay people have always had the option of marrying a member of the opposite sex.

Why would they want to?

'and gay people have always had the option of marrying a member of the opposite sex'

And now, straight people have the option of marrying a member of the same sex. Something they could not do legally before.

1. This is a little confusing. Williamson is saying that it isn't the slope of the yield curve (or even an inverted yield curve) that matters (as a predictor of a recession ahead), but instead a quick rise in the short rate: "Recessions tend to happen when the short rate goes up a lot, and that's driven by monetary policy. . . . Typically, when the real interest rate moves from trough to peak by a large amount, a recession happens." Even if the flattening of the yield curve doesn't portend a recession ahead, nevertheless those who support further interest rate hikes have the burden of proof: "But, given the current state of the economy, I think the onus should be on members of the FOMC who want further hikes to justify them, not the other way around." "Don't fear the inverted yield curve" might be construed as reason for further rate hikes (because the inverted yield curve of itself does not predict a recession ahead).

2 + 3 " We also find that legal SSM was associated with significant increases in health insurance, access to care, and utilization for men in SSH."

" Black men select a similar number of preventives in the ex-ante stage, but are much more likely to select every preventive service, particularly invasive services, once meeting with a doctor who is the same race. "

If only health care utilization was correlated with positive health outcomes. Unfortunately, these studies suggest that gays and blacks are not immune to the negative impacts on health outcomes and mortality induced by Obamacare payment mechanisms that discourage needed rehospitalizations and acceptance of diabetics as clients by medical practices.

Actually, CMS discourages early discharges by denying reimbursement for readmissions. CMS doesn't preclude readmissions; indeed, the hospital has no choice but to readmit the patient. Rather, CMS gives the hospital an economic incentive not to send patients home before they are ready to be discharged. Or stated another way, CMS provides an economic incentive for hospitals to maximize patient care rather than profits.

2. Marriage, whether SSM or OSM, improves one's health if for no other reasons than it (1) reduces the number of sex partners and (2) increases health awareness due to the nagging spouse (who encourages, by nagging, the other to get a physical, go to the doctor when sick, etc.). If a man doesn't have a nagging spouse, I'm not sure the big oaf would ever go see a doctor.

3. More black doctors would mean increased use of health care by black men, longer lives for black men (meaning even more health care), and an even larger share for health care in the national economy. I suspect that there's a fair number of Americans who believe that would not be an improvement.

>I suspect that there's a fair number of Americans who believe that would not be an improvement.

Please name three. Good grief.

#3 says that blacks have the lowest life expectancy of any racial group in the USA but Amerinds seem to be lower.

Nevertheless there are good reasons for AA when excessive licensing is in place.
Also I'd say when hiring police.

Now that is weird. Come on dude. If you are going to impersonate me at least do the cuckold thing. I, and I am sure this has nothing to do with cuckolding at all, kind of like that.

It has everything to do with cuckoldry. Most things do.

#1. Kind of meandering, but good conclusion: " But, given the current state of the economy, I think the onus should be on members of the FOMC who want further hikes to justify them, not the other way around."

Monetary conditions are getting tight, according to Lars Christensen. If there is any more tightening to be done, why not start selling off some of the Fed's longer-dated portfolio rather than increasing the FFR more? That would alleviate the risk of an inverted yield curve.

But the Fed should also end the 1.95% IOER subsidy it currently provides on voluntary reserves. Enough is enough- banks need to get back to making money the old-fashioned way.

Fed selling of QE securities likely will raise long rates. The admitted purpose was to keep low LT rates.

I think (I'm not an academic, or anything meaningful) that tracking/following slope of the yield curve is like reading a thermometer. What does it tell us? I think a flattening or inverted curve reflects the market's views on slower, future GDP growth/economic activity (flight to safety) and/or lower future inflation. If that is the case, a slow-down/recession seems more likely: the last seven were preceded by flat/inverted yield curves. Ergo, analyzing a flat or inverted yield curve may cause the FOMC to delay further rate increases.

Another item comes to my alleged mind. What does the flat curve do to the "carry trade" and bank profits? Just thinking out loud.

Is the Fed pulling away the juice? Comparing late June 2018 to similar 2017 date: reserves and excess reserves are down 11% (to $2 trillion and $1.9 trillion, respectively); the monetary base is down 3% (to $3.8 trillion). Fed-owned UST securities (that's how it's reported in Barron's) down 3% to $4.1 trillion.

Meanwhile, prior to December 2015 and for years, the prime rate was 3.25%. It has steadily been raised risen to 5% last month, which day-to-day rate is equivalent to the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage: last I saw was 4.66% in May. Just saying.

The observations of difference in flat yield curves of 1995 and 1998 that did not lead to recessions are useful.

As Williamson explains, the 1995 and 1998 events were driven by falling long-term rates, not increasing short-term rates. Since 1990, the 3-month yield has exceeded the 10-year yield only twice: late 2000 and 2007. In both cases, the inversion was due to the Fed increasing short-term rates, and in both cases, we got recessions.

Can someone show how improved communication between doctor patient leads to an improvement of 16 deaths per 100,000? That's about a 10% improvement, which seems high.

+1. I'm a little suspicious that these results haven't been examined very critically and have been rushed to put out as an argument for why *even medical science shows affirmative action is required to protect black lives*, particularly in light of the Trump Administration's rescission of the Obama admin's guidance on affirmative action and the DOJ's investigation of Harvard's admissions program. Even prestigious medical journals have done stuff like this before on issues both left and right.

And even if the results are bulletproof, what are the implications? Affirmative action for black medical school applicants? That black men should specifically be encouraged to request black doctors at a hospital or healthcare facility? Or that black men's prejudice against non-black doctors impedes their communication, and therefore damages their health? Will research be done on whether this same effect occurs for Asian, white, or Hispanic patients when interacting with doctors of the same racial or ethnic background? Will the same assumptions about communication be applied there if these same effects appear?

I don't know how much more affirmative action we could direct at black applicants to medical school. 65% of black applicants with the weakest MCAT and weakest GPAs are accepted into medical school compared to 9% of white applicants and 8% of Asian applicants in the same cohort.

In fact, black applicants with the weakest scores were about as likely to be accepted into medical school as Asian applicants with the highest test scores.

Which is surely evidence that medical education is largely pointless and just signalling. What makes for a good doctor? I doubt anyone has asked but I really doubt it is a high SAT. Or anything else to do with tests. Most GP work is so routine these days a good AI could do it.

The lowest scoring group of doctors can produce a 16% improvement! If true that is a very important finding. I suggest we would be no worse off if Med school selected by lottery from everyone in college.

If the patient does not do the preventative, testing, treatment, follow up or follow through on the doc's recommendations, then more sht can happen. As a white doc, I have never noticed my black patients not following through more often than my white. If anything my guess would have been more compliance. This study suggests otherwise.

That is a very generous interpretation of what they are implying. You don't think that their intent is to say people like you are racist and don't care if your Black patients die? At least not as much as a Black doctor would.

You are also blaming the victim. Maybe they do not comply because they do not trust? Because they expect White doctors to be racist. Your fault again I am afraid.

Either way I am willing to come around to a simple solution - not segregation because that would be wrong. But Malcolm X supported Separation. Which is different. Because. So Black patients should go to Black doctors in Black hospitals. 16% improvement is not nothing.

Raised in the South by negro maids, I might be a reverse racist.

The simple solution is about like you say and what was done when I was in training. And that was to train more black docs if they promised to practice in the ghetto.

it is said that pre 1970s there was a brothel upstairs in the back (of the julep, not the yield curve)

Here's a truly awe-inspiring wingsuit video: It's quite chilling as well in that it notes that many of the flyers filmed are now dead.

There are bold wingsuit flyers and dead wingsuit flyers. The transition is fairly rapid.

It used to be said that there were old fliers and there were bold fliers but there were damn few old bold fliers.

These days flying is pretty much the definition of boredom. Until, in very rare circumstances, it isn't. The status of pilots is probably dropping as a result as the computers do virtually everything. Will the same be true of wing suit flying? Will automation make it boring and hence most wing suit fliers will live to be old or will they get their technique right until there is nothing bold left to do?

#3 Having black doctors means black people who go to those doctors have better health outcomes.

If this is true then we need more segregation, white doctors for white people and black doctors for black people. Among other services where people trust those more like themselves.

Publicly stated conclusions will all be one-sided of course, more people of color good, fewer white people also good.

Yes #3 is an anti-diversity finding.

Regarding inverted yield curves, it is curious that nobody mentions the periods of time in recent years when we had non-monotonic ones. This usually involved having two-year notes at negative nominal interest rates, with 90-day bills barely above zero. Of course these periods were not ones of high short term rates, which Williamson is probably correct in claiming those are what trigger recessions, not the shape of the curve itself so much.

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