The rate of gdp growth will soon decline again

Yes, comments will be reactivated, and some already are on the newly written posts.  All will be back on once we work through the backlog of posts written during the “comments off” period.  There is no conspiratorial explanation for the change and return, nor was anything measured either before or after.  I simply got sick of reading your comments and wanted a week or so off.  I had that break, plus I was traveling a good deal during that period and needed the extra time.  Welcome back, oh wise ones!


" I simply got sick of reading your comments and wanted a week or so off."

That was your first mistake, Tyler. :)

Tyler reads 200 books per year, posts 2,000 blog posts per year, each with 100 comments on average and he still reads then! I might estimate that Tyler reads on average 25 million words per year, so that's 70,000 words per day which is about 200 pages. Not impossible but still incredible considering how much he writes.

And an apparently more recent mistake, because on reddit, Prof. Cowen wrote this - 'I only remove overt obscenity, libel, and racism when I spot them. I don't spend that much time looking at the comments section, would rather write more posts. I say just ignore them.'

Of course, there is undoubtedly a Straussian reading involving how credible the author of that remark is. Much like the credibility of this statement - 'nor was anything measured either before or after.' Ben Brophy is earning a nice salary, and it would likely be considered dereliction of his duties to not be measuring what is going on - after all, there was a strategic reason for the reason MR site redesign.

You obviously have an axe to grind. My question is, why don't you walk away from this and live your life? Start your own blog?

Do you really feel you are changing minds here?

Holding grudges is normal, but yours has a stalker vibe that is troublesome. Plenty of people in the world that I hate for things far worse than anything that happened to you, and I don't troll their social media sites.

The stalker vibe is troublesome, certainly, but the real problem with this type of commenter is the low quality of their comments. For example I get the feeling he thinks that removing specific comments and turning off the comments for a period are equivalent things.

You (and I'm guessing TC) wouldn't mind a hostile commenter if they were good, but I assume that (or would model the situation as one in which) any worthwhile hostile commenter has much better things to do with their time.

I don't see why people get worked up over what Prior writes. He's a good provocative poster (aka troll). He has an ax to grind, but so what?

I laughed when I saw that comment. But I also laughed when William Shatner said directly to me, in-person, "get a life" so I'm an odd little duck.

We know Tyler has little interaction with the comments because several times someone has answered his question directly in the comments and he doesn't realize for a few weeks. (I'm thinking of the Kevin Drum lead-crime link, where Kevin's answer was linked in the comments and our host only followed up much much later in a new post.)

Even at his voracious reading level, he may not bother because he feels the average comment here to have way lower intellectual content than the other stuff he reads.

His fast reading speed may explain him skipping comment sections. Comments are also endless -- if he reads a book, at the last page he's done, but comments here can stay open for weeks so it's never finished. Context-switching to keep on reading new comments (especially without a tool to mark new posts) could cost him the time to read a whole 'nother book.

This is an instant classic from Tyler, I'd put it up there with his 2008 election day post.

Of course the GDP will decline. The left will trash the economy to give voters a reason to change the makeup of congress and the administration. If you remember back to 2005-2008 Chuck Schumer and the rest of the Dems were working overtime to trash the economy and they succeeded giving us the most corrupt president; Obama, in history.

LOL way to miss the point. But also, your trolling is really unimpressive. The crowd here is way too smart for you, junebug.

There was a small plus to turning off, msgkings, disappeared.

So, do you guys think that guy who always posts about Brazil is real or not?

Does it matter? His meaningless reflexive grandstanding is much more fun than the various Obama Hillary and Trump bots.

Sounds like you are new, so:

In probably the most hilarious MR comment ever, Thiago accidentally outed himself. He made it very clear that he believed that Spanish was the primary language of Brazil.

I can't tell you how funny this was. He disappeared for awhile, and then was clearly posting under other names. But after a few months he was back as Thiago.

He's insane, and probably dangerous. But definitely not Brazilian.

Stop being stupid!! I misplaced the words "Portuguese" and "Spanish" in one sentence. For your argument to evin begin to make any sense, I would have to have thought that only one South American country speaks Spanish. That would be even more unexpected from a non-Brazilian (say, an American or an European, not to mention any Latin American) than thinking that Brazilians speak Spanish.

No, you kept repeating it and didn't understand why everyone was laughing at you

It is not true!! You are incredibly stupid if you think the idea there is only one Spanish-speaking country in South Americamis wven credible.

Grande Thiago, você brasileiro ou não? Cê é de que parte do território nacional? A população de americanos que pensam que falamos espanhol no Brasil é muito baixo no início do século XXI. Agora nos anos 80 todo americano perguntava: "So do you speak Spanish?" A otografia do seu nome é interessante: por que o "h"?

I think he's named himself after a soccer player who spells his name the same way.

Because my mother wanted it. "Thiago" is an accepted alternative to "Tiago" in Brazil. Simple like that. Haven't you ever heard of Brazilain poet Thiago de Mello?

TR 'lives' there:

Of course he is real. Only a real Brazilian could be that arrogant.

Not true. Famous British diplomat Hugh Gurney said (in a secret report, so he was not just being "diplomatic") that Brazilians are intelligent and tolerant.

He's just a guy posing as as dumb chauvinist just for laughs, right?

No. I am not a chauvinist. I am a patriot. Americans just can not tell the differece because, as famous Soviet leader Nikita Sergeyevich Khruschev pointed out, they do not love their country, they just love their cars and fridges.

And he was cruelly mistaken about how well that pithy line would play with his people, who wanted to love their cars and fridges too. And listen to jazz for some reason.

I honestly didn't think you read comments that often. In any case, that is good news! The comments section is one of the big pluses of MR!

This was my first reaction. Internet commenting suddenly gains some stakes when others read it, let alone Tyler. I was content just shouting into the void!

I didn't think so either, I rarely comment here bc I doubt many people see it and a couple times I did was pretty thoughtlessly. If Tyler actually reads most of them I might post more often.

We know he reads the comments because he pulls out good ones and makes posts out of them.

That said, the comments are garbage now. Keep them turned off until you can fix them. SSC has way more comments and Scott makes it work. A simple registration system would solve it.

The forging of other's names really messes things up.

His comment reading is very occasional. He has pulled out some for highlighting, but missed highly-referenced answers to directly posed questions in others.

no said Washington and lee graduates can't write ad copy. they cannot golf, however, and your stammer isn't what it used to be. It's declined and thus you have in a way failed your father. Cocaine's a hell of a drug. And people do it your office. And that one time you smoked a blunt in cabo is fine.

Ditto. A clear case of projecting our own behavior onto others.

I skim through every comment, and skim faster by known trolls. I expected Tyler to do the same. I forgot what a quick reader he is.

For me the comments speak more than the actual article. For example, the post on octonions. I was thoroughly impressed, awed, and interested by that lady's unorthodox line of research. It was a link on the comments that helped me to realize (or at least see a counterpoint) that her work wasn't merely unorthodox but likely quackery. I simply didn't know enough about the topic to judge her work critically. I still don't. The critic could be an arrogant prick with a closed mind. But at least now I know there is controversy.

So you think we should teach the ocfonion controversy!?

Agree with Willitts: the intellectual value of the median comment might be low (although I'd miss the cast of characters on some level), but the reaction of the comments section as a whole is a valuable frame.

Really? I find the comments section here to be surprisingly low quality. It's the same weirdly obsessive people posting constantly without adding much information. I pop in sometimes to see reactions to stuff though, so in that sense it's nice that they're back.

>The rate of gdp growth will soon decline again

After 8 years of total economic stagnation, I think it's important to immediately point out that now that GDP is taking off.... it won't last forever.

I mean, assuming you voted for the old drunk lady, like Tyler did.

Forgive us gender-neutral parental figure for we have transgressed against you.

Thank you Tyler. Thee are some posts that I look forward to reading the comments, and many I do not. My sympathy.

He got tired of reading our comments? (Muffled sob, angry tearing down of TC poster on my wall...) Why, hardly anyone has called him a fascist, knee-jerk reactionary, or Trump bot in the last couple of weeks or so. Ok, last ten days. Ok, last week, when the comments were off.

PS I think Putin is behind the comment shutdown.

Honestly I liked the comments off. Maybe make this a periodic thing?

Honestly curious, if you don't like the comments, what is so hard about not clicking on them. You can read the posts and just pretend they all have zero comments. You are one of many to post this and it's really bizarre if you think about it.

Because the comments used to be great to read, and then folks like you came along. I've been chasing that dragon.

I'll ignore the petty slander. But again, why not pretend they are still off?

@msgkings - It's not slander if it's true says the law.

Double burn! Man my ego is getting tons of stroking in this thread.

I think you misunderstand the meaning of subterranean. Captain Nemo was a great man no doubt. Yet he was mysterious. The trucks might be better where you are but your memoirs are more important than your memories. Erase them. They are not important. Memories are preposterous halos of bygone relics. Dinosaurs had memories and how are they doing in today's world of homing détente. Your blue suede shoes are not as blue as your eyes your a fat man in disguise and they know and laugh at you in front of your face. Your eyes are laughing at your nose in front of your face. Your surface level, man. Keep chompin at the it. class of 1980, Bryant college forever.

I agree with msgkings, though I admit I view the comments, and these days the content too, as a not-that-pleasurable "guilty pleasure" along the lines of minesweeper.

look I never made it to the account manager level. people persons are truly yours. your fortunate son and don't forget that one time you shook that old pr roomates hand down in what we'll pretend is nolita, that narrow lane south of wall street that curves like hank dorians oyster bar, that's better than grand central, that roommate has a kid now and he cannot afford it, but the handshake well it was a handshake was it not and so congratulations, man!

A question of will? The comments tend to be caustic, pithy, and entertaining in a junk food kind of way. Even if you eat them when they're out, you might hope your party host doesn't put out a bowl of salted nuts.

I suppose that could be it. Just seems so easy to NOT click something. Do these same people click all the banner ads they see too?

Salted nuts are junk food??

Nah. But I seem to remember the salted nuts bits used as an old econ example of people behaving irrationally, so I went with it.

The only reason comments are enabled now is because Tyler has implemented a system that disables bad comments.

The system looks like it needs some work...

let's be honest... the true value of blogs like this one, is the community that is represented in the comments. interesting topics. and huge contribution to the discussion from the community.

I stopped reading Calculated Risk when it was clear that the commenters placed snark above substance and that a cult of communists had taken over. Not "communists" as in "progressive" but as in real communists. They would gang up on any dissenting opinion.

The comments here are much more informative, intelligent, and balanced. I'm frequently in awe of the knowledge and experience of commenters here. As for the dullards, they are easy to ignore.

Re: GDP, how much of the recent growth is pulling in purchases of goods believed to soon be affected by tariffs?

Should be discussed: inflation adjustment of capital gains, that is Huge!!!

Exports accounted for 1.12 percentage points, or 30% of the 4.1% surge in 2nd Q RGDP.

But remember the BEA only had one month of actual trade data and they guesstimated the other two months of trade data. So we are quite likely to see very large revisions to GDP over the next few months. Especially if the May jump in agricultural exports borrowed from the future to avoid new tariffs.

Tyler and Alex - could we consider getting a moderator for the comments? I would be less hesitant to introduce people to this blog if the usual suspects weren’t calling each other cucks in the comments on every second post.

Agreed -- lots of interesting ideas marred by many of the comments. Why not get a grad student to read comments before they are posted?

Agreed -- I'd send more people to this site if I didn't have to warn them of the depressing cesspit that is the comments section. Moderation -- simply at the level of "is this comment an obscene rant?" -- would be great.

I guarantee there are GMUs student who could be hired for this job at a decent rate. Even that might exceed the attention our host wishes to pay to the comments.

At a slighter high rate of pay, a student could create a registration system. I'm not trying to discourage that, but there is the possibility of creating security problems if the student doesn't know what they are doing, although with a little planning any damage could be contained to the blog.

Agreed. Just add a small amount of moderation to weed out the cuck guy and obvious spam but continue to allow most all other posts.

Ah the old how do we reconcile Harvard cononudrum. Give us your weak and poor and tidy. Let us be kept. Let us laugh at evil as sway in our cotton dresses and wear hoop rings around our nose and spit. yes we at Harvard spit on campus. They do not know. They do not know us. They do not know normal, wormhole, swimming in Normandy and gay science and shit. we spit in our corona bottle and when we think about john Steinbeck do we not swim? Do we not have jack of hearts? Is blackjack not a bird? is a jackdaw not a bird? no one at mit, those revolutionaries, or brandeis, those writers, or bu, those Argonauts, none of them know the line, to walk the line, to be in two places constantly galloping until the light is air and the wind is clear, crystal as quick sand, silver as a macademia nut.

If this were the Breitbart comments I'd be going "Tyler caved!! MAGA!!!"

If this were the SSC comments, I'd be churning out 1200 words on melatonin vs. serotonin effects (on my goldfish)

But it's the MR comments, so I'll just say "Baby we're back, bring on those land-use controversies and solve for the equilibrium!"

Is that a Straussian response?

…do men that have different blood in them stop hating one another?

your always gonna have lotta logical flaws in the comments
not FLAW's1 like that metal band from Kentucky who colonel corbert Is currently ruthlessly exploiting
no comas los doritos anaranjados

1Dubuque Iowa on the 30th
and then theres a whole tour

Even hyperlexics have their limits.

I, for one, am glad they are back. I hadn’t realized how often I dip into the comments for some additional context.

Honestly, keep them off. The discussion is extremely rarely valuable and almost exclusively awful. If you don't enjoy reading them, keep them off. Few people come here for the discussion.

I appreciate your putting the comments back, although hiring a student to delete obvious trolls, grossly crude language, etc. would not be a bad idea.

Tyler, you should treat these comments like the Q&A part of the podcast. Unapologetically remove comments that are not actually useful - maybe we need to quality to get the comment privilege :)

As I said in an earlier post, I always get the sense I am the subject of an experiment here. Turing Test. I suspected that they measured readership before and after the comments were turned off. He says there was no measurement. I accept that. His alternative explanation is plausible. But as a curious researcher, how do you not look at that?

'He says there was no measurement.'

As if Prof. Cowen reads server logs, right? Or is involved in SEO activities (which is my current theory for comments being turned back on - chopping off so much searchable text might just have been noticeable after a couple of days).

'I accept that.'

You probably accepted that MRU was the work of two GMU econ dept profs, cheap app, and youtube.

"You probably accepted that MRU was the work of two GMU econ dept profs, cheap app, and youtube." - I noticed many times that old classic movies were made by a small handful of people and actors. Maybe a couple of dozen. The Sergio Leone films come to mind. So two people is not a mark of low quality but the opposite.

Bonus trivia: popular or not uncommon in Japan is 'one person restaurants' where one person does literally everything: seat you, take your order, cook, give you the bill, and sometimes for a rushed, lunchtime crowd. I've seen it more than once, so I assume it's popular or not uncommon.

I read the comments first. Only if the comments are interesting will I risk spending my time reading the article(s).

Morris, you were so cute in college at 16. Driving up, we saw you in the lawn near alabama and your threw up, the mushrooms were still salient, I agree if no else does surely one must shine his shoes one never knows when king Arthur might show up. Perhaps you were a mix of the three, prespyberetian, episcolpalian, and sibertoothtigerian, and yet you are not a bastard as you believe. you are not literary or political and your cousin that went to Harvard extension is not a "BAD" or "SMALL" man, he is short and for you that is troublesome.

"Welcome back, oh wise ones!"

I must admit that hanging with my Twitter peeps, I view the world as a better and smarter place. We agree that a false symmetry, both sides, "centrism" is dumb. We agree that an anti-anti "centrism" is probably dumber. And while same-as-always "centrism" may be self-protective, it's not really the way to grasp the world.

The fact of the matter is that every decade has at least one big thing that hits and then echoes for decades more. The 1960s had Vietnam and hippies, leading to fewer foreign wars and more hedonism for many years after. The 1970s had the first Islamic revolution and government in Iran, setting the stage for decades of retreat from moderation and globalization and into fundamentalism across the region. The 1980s were all about the fall of communism, and the end of that history. The 1990s were pretty good. A decade of global economic and technological progress. The 2000s exposed poor adaptation to the previous three decades of change, leading to both frustrating and indecisive foreign wars and a great domestic recession. While we have bounced back economically in the 2010s, and withdrawn from foreign "nation building," we haven't really engaged in much problem solving. The big problem of this decade is a right wing, anti-intellectual, populism that has no analogue on the left.

Some of you may seek to hide in one or more of the three opening errors of "centrism," but I think that really becomes at best complacency and at worst complicity in the face of this decade's big challenge.

And that might be why MR is a bad fit for me. The three errors are too inculcated.

While I'm a little flattered I'm as in your head as Trump, I can't say I'll mind you leaving (since MR is a 'bad fit' for you)

I was thinking more of the character of the place, but in terms of you, how many of the three errors do you think you make?

(He probably thinks Richard Burr is talking about him too.)

I make as many errors as you do, Mr. Bear. Why not keep up the fight vs Trump here and not worry so much about those of us who also oppose him but not in the same way as you?

While it was funny for me to name three "errors in processing," and for you to jump up and say "that's me!" there is indeed a bigger world out there, where one doesn't have to deal with such nonsense.

To be serious for a moment, because ultimately I always am, there was never any reason to believe that the constellation of irrationality or emotional behavior would rotate around a neutral point. For that reason it was always a mistake to think one could work backwards and arrive at "centrism" by a geometric process. Are not a useful centrism anyway.

There are actually a lot of people out there who work on finding that better morally grounded centrism, and pragmatism, and not maintaining geometric fictions.

Of course you meant me. You are more bothered by centrists like myself that don't have their hair on fire than you are about the actual Trumpies. And this last bit about 'geometric fictions'? That's the purest definition of a word salad as there is.

Let's make it simple. You find Trump to be a world historical, generational threat to the nation and the entire planet. And that's your right. I'm not as worried. That's my right. But you can't just leave it alone, and train your fire on the actual Trumpies here (and there are so many more of them here than centrists like me).

I suppose like Ray Lopez it bothers you that I give as good as I get. But I don't want to anger you or keep this going any longer. So let's agree we disagree on the direness of the situation and talk to the others for a change.

Too funny. I continue to describe a general problem, and you re-up yourself as an example.

Does Dr, Keita know you too?

Here's another one that pops up in the "anti-anti" search on Twitter. I think often (and in this quote) Jeet Heer goes more than a bit overboard, but a milder form of the criticism (of anti-anti and "center-right/libertarian writers") is probably correct:

As a lot of people out there in the wider wold know, if you go anti-anti, you just might be up to something.

I remember you from the Indian Summer of 2014, that swept up the northeast from Vermont, that started with skiing on park avenue. Yes, perhaps bear, perhaps nothing good has come after.

Speaking of severely underrates commenters....

Speaking of severely underrated commenters...

" I can't say I'll mind you leaving (since MR is a 'bad fit' for you)"

LOL, that's some wishful thinking msgkings.

LOL I suppose.

go west to Colorado and you not west

go west and not to Colorado.

I do not agree with this characterization of "centrists" at all, but you should probably be aware of how this is shaping up.

Words are defined by usage, and if enough people who describe themselves as centrist are saying things like this, it becomes a thing.

Maybe if more morally centered centrists got out there, and spoke more directly, they could reclaim the term.

"The rate of gdp growth will soon decline again"

The sun will soon set again.

The difference is if you tell me your location I can tell you exactly when the sun will set for you for any given day for the rest of your life.

However, for most of my life, pols and economists and businesses were most concerned with gdp switching from growth to contraction.

Trump has staked his success on whether GDP growth rates keep rising, with growth rate falling being failure.

Obama's term saw two or three quarters of GDP growth of 4% plus, but he was a disaster because the following quarters were below 4%.

So, Trump's economy will be a disaster if GDP growth falls. Right?

Trump can succeed only if GDP growth rises monotonically to something like 7-8%.

Political discourse across tribal boundaries is almost always an
antisocial act - less communication, than symbolic violence.

— attribution declined

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