Tuesday assorted links

Comments

#2...5 years of data?
Meh.

I was just going to post this point. It's cherry picking the data.

Same here.

Just read something elsewhere recently that said the exact opposite. There are just as many but two things have happened, 1) the shock-value of these crimes have diminished and 2) law enforcement and forensics have improved significantly i.e. it's harder for Gacy, Bundy, and Craigslist type killers to go free long enough for it to get really salacious.

I would also not categorize spree-killing with serial-killing. I think they are fundamentally different and shouldn't be combined.

It's too recent to account for the drop, but catching the Golden State Killer by using relatives who'd entered DNA in an ancestry database was a game-changer. It no longer matters if a serial killer has ever been arrested or been on law-enforcement radar as a suspect. If investigators have any DNA evidence, they can now find the killer.

And spree killers seem entirely distinct from serial killers -- much younger, more impulsive, and with no expectations of getting away with their crimes even for a short time.

You have to read the text. The graph covers only a few years but those years are being compared to the 1980s when rates were at their historical peak and twice as high. Not saying it’s a perfect analysis but the author wasn’t implying that a reduction since 2013 was meaningful.

"6. There is no great stagnation, sex coordination edition.

Millennials have killed many things: cable television, golf, McDonald’s, and now, apparently healthy sexual relationships."

Shouldn't this be titled there is a stagnation?

McDonald's? I don't think the underdone softness of the once-crunchy fried pies can be blamed on millennials.

McDonald's has some value, but if you are getting your pastries there you are doing it wrong.

Nah. Once childhood was over, confronted for whatever reason with a McDonald's: get in, get your apple pie, get out. That is, until about 25 years ago, when they quit frying the pies in either shortening or lard.

If nobody is having sex, then that's more reason to have open borders. Otherwise Trump is making a country of walled-in incels staring at extinction.

#2. They seem to get less press thats for sure. Maybe they just changed into mass shooters?

#4. Something something ein volk?

2 - Spot on, Moo Cow.

Slash forty people and bury them in your shed, and CNN says "That's disgusting. Obviously, we'll mention it for one day for shock value ratings, but unless the victims are all women, this does not advance the narrative."

Shoot ten people at a mall? Wall-to-wall glory for a month on CNN, baby!

#2 The best explanation for the difference between mass-shooters (spree killers) and serial killers I've heard is that spree killers intend to die and or be caught in short order for the commission of their crime. Specifically spree killings association with suicide. Ideal outcomes form a hierarchy as follows

1) heavy body count followed by self-inflicted suicide

2) heavy body count followed by death by blaze of glory

3) Initial attack followed by escape with potential for additional harm in short order, to be followed again by 1) and 2)

4) Body count followed by capture (preferably with injury), followed by glorification of their pathology via media

You'll notice getting attention ends up at the bottom of the list if it can be avoided. Serial killers are motivated by pathology that satisfies some other need other than the killing or receiving resolution for that killing. Spree killers are obsessed with one singular overwhelming act of violence, which they believe has meaning in and of itself, followed by an ideal resolution that preferentially includes their death and immortality - ideally all in relatively short order.

#3 Exactly the quality you'd expect from Vox.

I think James Taranto used to refer to it as "a young adult website".

It seemed like a decent interview/article. Nothing like the cringy stuff you see at other times (AOC for president and the animal cracker box nonsense).

But they should have mentioned how many blacks are offended by blackface which isn't as high as you would expect considering the author claims over and over that black face = racism.

"Bad [elementary school] education would be a major problem."

Boy I don't see it!

Because the selection effect is so powerful in education we do not see it but a rational argument could made that the USA has best education in the world (The Amazing Truth About PISA Scores: USA Beats Western Europe, Ties with Asia) and Florida has the best education among the USA states (Florida Number One in School Measure).

But if you ask me, I will tell you that there are not significant differences in overall schooling quality in the developed world.

4. Here are eight reasons to never visit Hungary. https://eurama.hu/2017/02/17/reasons/ Number eight on the list: ugly women. But this is not a sexist list. Number seven on the list: ugly men. There's always somebody for everybody, that's why there are so many ugly children in the world. But not in Hungary. The men and women there are so ugly they won't procreate.

Interesting that you present this list as being in earnest.

2. This was an entertaining read, even if the reasons given for the decline are mostly speculation. They actually go all the way back to 1970 and the drop in serial murders since the '80s and '90s is so significant that it probably holds true even if you were to add spree killers to the numbers.

Serial murders are rarely discussed with the context of prison guard culture: Here's one reason to never go to Western New York: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/01/nyregion/attica-prison-infamous-for-bloodshed-faces-a-reckoning-as-guards-go-on-trial.html?module=inline

#5: Furthermore, religion is a convenient source of legitimacy for weak states. This gives rise to a partnership between state and church. While there are many forms that this partnership can take, a common one involved the state enforcing religious conformity in return for support from the religious authority.

Not sure this thought of theirs is original, but it's well-stated, at least.

2. We've had more than our share of degenerates in Florida. We just celebrated the 40th anniversary of Ted Bundy's heinous acts. But the best has to be Oscar Ray Bolin Jr. ("Bolin the Butcher"). Why is Bolin the Butcher the best? Because, while in prison waiting for his special day, he befriended a prominent socialite from Tampa who was married to a well-known defense lawyer. She divorced her husband and the two love birds married. My late brother's wife ran off with the tennis pro. The female tennis pro. And I thought that was embarrassing. But for one's wife to run off (well, Bolin the Butcher couldn't run anywhere) with Bolin the Butcher, I'd definitely move to another state if not another country. But this is Florida, which even his a web site devoted to Florida's seven worst (best?) serial killers: https://serialkillershop.com/blogs/true-crime/7-worst-florida-serial-killers

Being my older brother, I took great joy in reminding my brother that he was such a horrible husband that he turned his wife into a lesbian. Not that there's anything wrong with being a lesbian. As for his ex-wife's backhand, I didn't ask.

The southern lawyer is a homophobic bigot.

Who would have guessed?

Ugly Hungarian women? As something of an authority on the matter, I can assure you, the Hungarians are second in beauty and sex appeal only to the Czechs in Europe.

That's good to know. What we hear and read about eastern European women is mostly false. Indeed, here's an article proclaiming the innocence (both as a spy and as a prostitute) of Maria Butina (Russian, but close enough): https://newrepublic.com/article/153036/maria-butina-profile-wasnt-russian-spy

Yes, the Hungarians are Russians just like the Irish are the English, only less so.

However, with respect to "...sex and seduction to infiltrate...", well, yes, Hungarian women have those skills, too. Actually, they excel at it.

If you could somehow cross a Jew, an Italian, and a Russian, you'd have a Hungarian.

On another topic entirely, I find Hungarian women beautiful in an exotic way.

The Czech seem more Russian than Hungarians, although my family did vacation in Hungary quite often

The Czechs are Slavs; the Hungarians are not.

Still, the Czechs are a good bit more civilized than the Hungarians.

I can put the Russians on that scale if you like.

Russian often break the scale that you try to put them on. ;-)

Spoken like a true Russian. (I mean that as a compliment.)

yes, taken as a compliment, of course

Come now, the Muscovite hookers that pee'd on Trump probably weren't that fat.

Here's what you get if you type 'Russian women' into Google.

https://www.google.com/search?q=russian+women&rlz=1C1KAFB_enUS510US510&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwie8Ivks7ngAhWsT98KHXqYBhsQ_AUIDigB&biw=1269&bih=579

+1
Czech men are the most vivacious and sexually astute partners IMPE and IMHO.

To add to my comment and for inquiring minds and general awareness:

Next in line: “bi” Chicanos who are in half denial
Next: African Americans who are “MSM not gay”
Fourth: conservative Muslim Arab men in France 😱
Distant last: ole Southern boys who are in denial unless blacked out on southern comfort. Gross.

But hey Southern California is what it is.

I disagree, next in line are the Croatians. Those men will keep you satisfied until you really black out and start screaming for God. You don't even need Southern Comfort.

I love me a good Cleveland steamer now and then. Sometimes two in one day. "Easy Dick" they used to call me.

Tell me more, Dick.

Many of us became men from the magistral teachings of Sylvia Saint

I have a friend and client (he is a physician) from Romania. He has the accent, but not the look. Several generations back his family emigrated to Romania from Italy. He is, well, Italian. And Romanian. With all the migrating and procreating, identifying oneself as Romanian or Irish or American Indian is silly. By the way, the Spit Diva was at one time married to a founder of Google. Google, Facebook, 23andMe, let's hope they all experience the fate they deserve.

Absolutely. That's what the Bosnians said to the Serbs.

Serial killers had two peaks, after WW I and after WW II. Periods marked by great migrations and distributions in families. The children of returning soldiers were raised in a period of upheaval and change. Plus the post-WW II era saw a rise in the public display of bondage magazines. That according to the book Sons of Cain

Female serial killers tend to have a profit motive and modern technology makes that more difficult.

For males how who define a serial killer gives you very different profiles. Longer prison sentences starting in the '80s may have swept up killers on other charges and kept them off the street. The notion being that prisoners may have been convicted of one event but were guilty of many more.

We may see an uptick from the people fleeing violent societies to our South, that trauma combined with migration and community displacement can lead to the exploitation of some segments and, regretfully, greater victimization. If it follows past patterns, within twenty years this group will see an increase in serial killings.

Serial killers are overwhelmingly white men though?

A Honduran immigrant can get his thrills joining MS-13. Inner city AA could join the Crips. No need to go the serial killer route. Serial killers seem to be a mostly sociopathic white male phenomenon, the culture of which has no easy outlet for violent impulses (football? Marines?)

Due to the Wars 2001-2014 and massive incarceration from 1980-90s, the decline in serial killings makes sense. Serial killers often have low impulse control, and have a slew of petty crimes starting in their youth. They also are often war veterans, since the military heavily attracts violent sociopaths. Especially during war time. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see an uptick as the sociopathic crazy war veterans are discharged.

2020-2030 will tell.

"Serial killers are overwhelmingly white men though?"

No, apparently that's a myth.

"Serial Killer Myth #6: They Are All White."

"Contrary to popular mythology, not all serial killers are white. Serial killers span all racial and ethnic groups in the U.S. The racial diversity of serial killers generally mirrors that of the overall U.S. population. There are well documented cases of African-American, Latino and Asian-American serial killers."

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/wicked-deeds/201412/serial-killer-myth-6-they-are-all-white

The serial killers tend to be the children of the returning veterans. Both after WW I and WW II, some victims of trauma don’t make very good parents according to the book Sons of Cain. Some become gangbangers with multiple kills, some become sexually motivated, the motives and means can vary but they commit multiple kills.

4. Actually, I think Orban is right on the money.

Almost all the advanced countries -- and include China -- are below replacement levels of fertility. The consequent choices are:

1. Organic suicide: Japan
2. High levels of immigration: Some of the Nordic states
3. Promoting higher levels of fertility: Russia, France, Hungary

There are two issues with respect to Orban's strategy:

First, many young people feel Hungary is hopeless, and with essentially open borders, they easily emigrate to the west. Thus, having more children implies holding on to your young adults, which implies an open and dynamic economy -- hard to square with an illiberal democracy (and the reason I left Hungary).

Second, who will pay for the children? In a state with high taxes and a large share of the elderly, where do you get the funding for children? It can't be working parents, because then you're running essentially a zero sum game, giving money to working parents and then taking it back from them in taxes.

So you're left with two options: Reduce the welfare state, most notably towards the elderly population; or borrow money, which puts you at the mercy of international capital.

So, sure, we can talk about illiberalism, but the Orbans of the world are as constrained as the rest. They do not have infinite options.

Must be starved for youth...

Good comments. Another odd thing about the strategy seems to be to me that he is proposing to exempt women with many children from income tax... but women who have very large families like this do not tend to have high paying jobs? For reasons of divergent preferences, abilities, or the impediment of children to career, variously.

So is the tax benefit significant enough, particularly if the state would have to raise consumption taxes, property taxes etc to meet the revenue shortfall?

Stay at home husbands and highly educated women would benefit most, I guess, but this is an uncommon pairing, and somewhat contrary to the traditional family values that the Orbanists of Hungary seems to profess.

The rather binary nature of the transition between full tax rates to no tax rates also provides an oddly positioned disincentive. Good for pushing a person with three kids to have another, perhaps. But for the large segment of fertile population on zero or one, that transition point is a long point in the future and after a long point of economic pain.

If it happens that you end up putting more relative burden on women and men who have one or two children (more frequent) to subsidise those with four (less frequent) that won't necessarily do much for your birth rate. Putting more burden on single men and women, likewise, will make them less likely to marry and have children in Hungary, also less than ideal.

Creating large inequality in parent:child ratios - some have a lot, some have none - will also completely f* any attempt to use incentives to have children as an alternative to elder care. A large population of couples with 2.4 children are probably better at looking after grandma than a population with lots of 4 kid families and a lot of 0 kid families.

Polices like this which aim to boost birth rates can easily fall into policies that just reward a core group of supporters.

(Now really radical pro-natalist policy is something I'm of course more sympathetic to than the "Pile in the immigrants" strategy, but actually paying in a way that doesn't have unintended consequences through other taxation is worth a good degree of thought.)

The problem is that Hungary is run like a homeowner's association. Anything dynamic or developing will be seen as a threat and will be made illegal. No good will come of that. If Hungary's modus operandi is "Let's make lots of babies!" then their leaders lack any real vision. The youth will continue to leave and the elderly will continue to vote in their benefits. This is the end state of that kind of thinking.

Actually Hungary has the smallest percentage of population living abroad, so there is no data to back up the threat of youth leaving the country on mass scale.

*in it's region.

"Yesterday Portfolio.hu summarized the findings of “International Migration Outlook 2018,” a yearly publication of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). It turned out that the number of Hungarians who since 2006 have tried their luck in the richer countries of the European Union is much higher than earlier estimated–close to a million. Determining how many subsequently returned home is close to impossible, but according to numbers provided by host countries of immigrants from Hungary, about 600,000 Hungarian citizens might currently be working abroad."

At lot of my Hungarian friends are not in Hungary.

http://hungarianspectrum.org/2018/06/22/leaving-in-hordes-emigration-from-hungary/

Define "a lot". 600.000 Hungarians doesn't sounds much compared to ~10 million Poles or even ~4 million Romanians. That's not a number that realistically endangers Orban's anti-immigrant dream.

600,000 = 6% of Hungary's population. In the 1956 uprising, about 250,000 left on the same population.

In US terms, if would equal about 20 million, the population of New York or Florida. You'd feel it, even if everyone didn't mourn it.

At it's the best 600,000 of that age cohort, the ones with internationally marketable skills and good English, German or other foreign language skills.

It's a big deal.

And it's the best....

The US is not an adequate comparison, since we it's not in a common human resource market with any other country (no, not even our pesky neighbours Mexico and Canada).
In the European Union such numbers are quite common and claiming that moving from Hungary to (say) Austria or the UK would be an internatioal transfer is rather laughable (at least with a global mindset). It's like moving from Chicago to New York - and I'm pretty sure Chicago actually had a far bigger drop in it's population due to economic crisis, so that's not something that needs to be explained.

"If Hungary's modus operandi is "Let's make lots of babies!" then their leaders lack any real vision. The youth will continue to leave and the elderly will continue to vote in their benefits. This is the end state of that kind of thinking."

I think Orban is ahead of the curve on this issue. You will see more of this around Europe, advanced Asia and even China.

The more interesting question, as you point out, is the political issue of the elderly. This is exactly why, Orban would argue, that illiberalism is necessary. Democracy is about being 'nice' in that every faction must be accommodated. Individual utility is paramount.

Not so in a conservative society, where the health of the group as a whole is paramount. Without children, the group is imperiled in the long term. Without the elderly, well, not much happens. So the unborn are being pitted against the elderly--this is a theme not only for Hungary, but throughout the OECD. Is therefore the choice between a self-consuming democracy or more healthy illiberal semi-autocracy? That's the central issue on the table in the next 10-20 years, I think.

"4. Orban on Hungary offers income tax exemption and other benefits to women who have four or more children."

I opened The Washington Post story up in incognito mode and all of the ads were from the US Border Patrol. :)

6. Does that mean i can stop giving foot massages?

3. Here's some more on blackface and its place in the overall ethnic humor pre-WWII:
https://delanceyplace.com/view-search-results.php?2977

And for some trivia, Jimmy Walker started his career touring with an old black comic who was the last to perform in whiteface.

The Wayans brothers donned whiteface (plus cross dressing) in the 2004 film "White Chicks"

6. Sounds like something you'd find on the spinner rack in 1974.
"The world is dying! Mankind's only hope is..."
The Love Button

3. John Strausbaugh: I mean, we’re a marginally less racist culture than we were, say, 50 years ago,..."

Not if you believe polls taken in 1968 and in 2018 on the acceptance of inter-racial marriage and the willingness of whites to live next door to blacks. There has been a sea change.

#4 - the main difficulty in getting fertility rate up, one would think, is that the difficulty/parental investment required to raise children is increasing unsustainably with time. Will people trade off a relatively-stress-free life for such tax benefits? I am not sure; perhaps these moves might mitigate secondary factors stemming from the Malthusian superstitions leftists have been propagating for the last few decades.

If I'm not mistaken, the orthodox birthrates in Israel have lifted up secular birthrates too. There may be some lessons to learn from that; e.g., the status levels of religious communities that have many children might impact overall TFR. But while there is some commentary on Israel per se, thoughts on possible replication in other countries seem so rare.

Hopefully Steve Sailer will have some interesting comments.

#4. Orban on Hungary offers income tax exemption and other benefits to women who have four or more children.

The WPost article did not say much about "other benefits" which were actually quite substantial. When a women already have 3 children they are unlikely to have full time works until may be all the children are over say 15 yo. After which the women might be at age harder to find full time works. Thus the income tax exemption might be more spin than actual. The "other benefits" which WPost might be intentionally omitted are quite substantial, https://www.angloinfo.com/how-to/hungary/healthcare/pregnancy-birth/maternity-leave

"""
Women have 24 weeks maternity leave, but are allowed to take up to three years off and receive maternity benefits. For the first six months, a woman receives 70 percent of her previous salary; this support is called Pregnancy and Confinement Benefit (Terhességi-gyermekágyi segély – TGYÁS).

For the next eighteen months, until the child’s second birthday, a Child Care Fee (Gyermekgondozási díj – GYED) is available. The amount paid is 70 percent of the previous earnings of the parent taking care of the child; however it is capped, and cannot be higher than 70 percent of twice the minimum daily wage (capped at 1.4x minimum wage).

A benefit called Child Home Care Allowance (Gyermekgondozási segély – GYES) is available for parents or grandparents taking care of a child up to the age of three, although this is a much smaller amount. For those who were unemployed when they gave birth, only GYES is payable.
"""

Thus women intended to have more children might stagger the child births in three years interval. After the fourth child and 12 years after full time works she might have difficulty getting another high level full time works.

Incidentally the Softbank Group offers a baby bonus from US$ 400 to US$ 40,000 for employee with a fifth child. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SoftBank_Group#Baby_bonus The Softbank Group now owns the significant microprocessor patents holder ARMS Holding which has a significant R&D presence in Hungary. Thus a SoftBank employee with dual Japanese and Hungarian citizenship might be tempted to be posted to Hungary to have more children there.

Tyler: "We can be the world's No. 1 country for a long time to come, or at the very worst, No. 2 or 3."

Except China has had the largest GDP for several years. It will be a while until India's GDP surpasses that of the U.S. - maybe 2030.

Divide by the population.

But this was Cowen's sentence right before it:

"It's not like the British Empire that went from a quarter of the world to this quite small place, which is now even probably Brexiting from the European Union. "

#3 "So, it has this curious history of being a way for people who were nominally white, but not considered white by the other white folks, to say, “No, we’re white because we put on the blackface.”"
This makes absolutely no sense.

Nah it makes sense. Blackface is always racist and you're racist for merely questioning that premise.

Look at Die Antwoord's video for "Fatty Boom Boom" -- the Zef subculture is yet another underclass attempting to emphasize whiteness through blackface in order to signal a racist worldview that aligns them with the white elites of South Africa. Die Antwoord has also culturally appropriated rap music which is inherently a US black artistic form. Yolandi Visser is the devil and wants to reinstate Apartheid...

Is Vox hiring?

Ah, buzzfeed layoff ? ;)

2 - There is Great Stagnation

3. Nowhere close to correct. Dripping with value-laden conclusions.

White actors wore blackface for the same reason males dressed as females in Shakespeare's plays: it was work. Women and especially Blacks were excluded from the paid workforce almost everywhere so why would acting be different? One could argue that this was a far more consequential form of racism and sexism than mere mockery.

While minstrel shows did, in fact, mock Blacks, they also mocked Whites. Many minstrel shows portrayed Blacks as innocent victims of oppression and thus several Southern states banned minstrel shows.

#1 -- Excellent interview. Much more direct and exoteric than the actual book, which was so subtle the Cato Unbound commenters missed the point.

3. I mean, we’re a marginally less racist culture than we were, say, 50 years ago, or several generations ago, but we’re still a racist culture,

We're so racist that we elected a man to be president of the country who claims to be black, worship a lady named Oprah, give dump trucks full of money to black professional athletes and entertainers, elect blacks to positions in the local, state and national government and establish programs to ease the entry of blacks into educations and occupations. This while ignoring other minorities.

"I was going to ask why you think blackface is so persistent in American culture, but I suppose the answer is obvious enough: racism"
Why do the authors not confront the fact that these photos were from 30 years ago? They banter like these photos were taken last Halloween.

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