Sunday assorted links


#5) I've always wondered about that. Btw, the post shows that homeless don't move to warmer states but doesn't offer explanations for why. The high homeless states of DC,HI,NY,MA,OR,WA,CA seem to be blue states that might have more generous welfare for homeless? AK is a red state but doesn't it pay benefits from oil revenue? Also, maybe it's more difficult to migrate from AK to the lower 48. I don't know about NV welfare benefits.

If it's hard for homeless to migrate to warmer climates, then does that mean that they will benefit from global warming bringing warmer temperatures to them?

No homeless people in 2100.


Will homelessness be illegal?

Will homelessness be solved because of a New Homeless Deal?

Will a gene constellation for homelessness be discovered and will it become reduced in the gene pool?

a Soylent Green New Deal

Thread winner. Shut it down.

Doesn't include Canada, but anyone who's been through both downtown Ottawa and downtown Vancouver in January knows that Vancouver is the home of Canada's homeless. Needle exchange to boot.

Upon further examination, maybe there is no correlation, precisely technically defined, between temperature and homelessness, but the only cold climate high homeless states are AK,NY,MA. The rest (DC,OR,WA,NV,CA,HI) I would consider mild climate. (I have lived only in MI and MA.) AK and HI may be hard to migrate from. Within the lower 48, maybe the homeless do migrate away from cold states --- except those in NY and MA --- but, once in a mild or warm state, factors other than temperature dominate. Anyone know why DC, but not MD and VA, is particularly attractive to homeless?

"Because DC is the only jurisdiction in the region with any sort of right to-shelter laws (the other closest jurisdiction being New York City), people struggling with homelessness in surrounding areas [e.g., VA,MD] often turn to the city to get their needs met." From []

So, welfare does seem to explain DC and NY.

Also, (at least some of) the homeless do seem to be rational. From the article I link to above: "I came to DC from New Jersey four years ago, and I [came] for the medical services and the support services [needed] to get my life back together."

Weather doesn't have much impact becuase of policy (you can see all sort of charity in DC parks adminstering free food).

But also knowledge. The homeless in DC probably know the area well, the informal codes of the locals and other homelessness. For example, I've been told that there is a certain section in Baltimore where the cops don't harass the homeless or give them a hard time about their drug use and general dirtyness. Once you undersatnd the informal rules about living on the street, probably don't want to move. I'm surprised that P. Lesson hasn't written about this.

The homeless do indeed migrate. They even go South in the Winter. It is inaccurate to believe that "homeless" people are broke. Their begging can be quite profitable. Often they own a car or decrepit RV and will head South when the snow flies.

Not surprised. The homelss in DC all congreate near CVS (for cigs) or a liquor store (for booze). They tell you that "a hot meal sure does sound good right now" but when you buy them food they decline. A few have even got pissed.

Actually, maybe that is why they don't all end up in Miami. More symphaty for them if its cold?

Baltimore resident here. "A certain section" where the cops tolerate homelessness is pretty much the entire city, minus maybe some touristy areas around the harborfront and JHU, and only when the cops feel like being mean, and aren't busy investigating bodies found in alleys. Panhandling has become a growth occupation in the city, and don't even get me started on squeegee kids.

Irrational behavior on the part of the homeless, you say? Gee, who would have guessed?

5. Why would homeless folk move to warmer states?

We see Central Americans abandoning tropical climes to move much deeper into northern latitudes. We see sub-Saharan Africans migrating north of the equator to leave the natural bliss of their continent for the forbidding climes of Europe.

Whence the expectation that our homeless would prefer to thrive in warmer climes? "Warmer climes" of late are where dread infectious diseases (e. g., Ebola, Zika, et cetera) emerge prior to attaining epidemic or pandemic status.

Perhaps our Cognitive Elites can deign to accord native intelligence and natural insight to our beleaguered populations of the poors.

Warm climates are often miserably, even dangerously, hot in the summer. I lived in Florida for five years so I know something about that. You can always put more layers on in winter, but in a hot, muggy summer you wouldn't be comfortable if you could take your skin off. Heat stroke is a real risk in such places for anyone stuck outdoors without ready access to cold beverages.

Yep. Tyler's title asks "Why don’t homeless people move to warmer states?" and the answer is: because it's too hot there.

Data at the level of metro areas would seem to be much more appropriate than the state-level data used in this article. But maybe that's the only data they could find.

#5 - The obvious conclusion is they don't because they don't perceive the need.

The largest share of the homeless are crazy, and the next largest share are addicts. They are not rational decision-makers. They can shamble along with a sleeping bag and several layers of clothing. That they may end up with impaired immune systems and walking pneumonia (or worse) is not in the calculus.

Even birds are smart enough to migrate south for the winter...

Birds aren't eligible for welfare.


Let’s see what transpires during the first serious Democratic candidates debate! It may happen yet.

Birds do migrate south less frequently from places where bird-feeders are common.

I spend time in Southern California, and I think you have your proportions inverted; there appear to be more addicts and fewer cases of organic psychosis.

If the misnamed "homeless" population were rational, it would resettle in cities with much lower rents and available jobs.

There is no other way to account for the increasing level of homelessness (16 percent in LA in 2018) in a period of 3 percent GDP growth and full employment.

Plural of anecdote and all that, but the homeless I see in WVa also seem more chemically than biologically addled.

Many of them would not trade their situation for a day job and an apartment. Is that irrational?

It probably is rational if your greatest goal is to feed an addiction.

As further anecdotal "evidence," I would note that the drug of choice in the beach precincts of Los Angeles County was said to be meth until last year, when there came increasing reports of heroin and fentanyl use. (I read the local police blotter and talk to park workers who say they have been picking up more empty syringes.)

Given that, I tend to attribute the drastic rise in "homelessness" in the area more to drugs than to a spontaneous increase in psychiatric illness generally.

Two observations: Are there regional differences? In Atlanta most homeless seem to be mentally ill, and I mean well detached from reality. I'm astonished they can even feed themselves. Also, the line between addict and crazy will blur over the long term.

I saw an interesting mnemonic for the homeless: CATO 4321
Crazy - 40%
Addicted - 30%
Tramp - 20% (i.e., hobos or "the happy homeless")
Out of luck - 10% (what Rollo Tomassi calls the Zeroed-Out)

If you abuse alcohol and/or drugs long-term, you are going to end up crazy, and there's probably lots of overlap, but this seems like a good guide. If it could be confirmed statistically, it could guide policy. I think the hypothesis that people are homeless because we haven't built enough high-rises is absurd. The homeless I see could be given houses and they'd burn them down by accident within a month. They wouldn't even be able to cover the garbage fee, much less keep their toilets unclogged and their light bulbs changed.

4. More on hypersonic missiles (NYT).

yawn. no bigger threat than ICBMs which have been around for 60+ years.

(hate the style of that NYTimes article -- leads off with needles trivia and takes long time to get to essence of the news; story-telling versus journalism)

I think that's why TC puts (NYT) at the end so you can make an informed decision about how to expend mouse click or finger press energy.

I certainly find it useful - I don't read anything in NYT.

But then, I don't use twitter, and sliding the cursor over a link before clicking is just standard Internet safe surfing.

I thought it was fairly obvious that it’s because there’s a monthly limit on articles for people without a subscription. Ever notice that he does that for every news site with non-subscriber limits?

He does not seem to do it for the Post, but your reason seems as valid as any.

ICBMs did not make aircraft carriers obsolete. These do.

#5 it takes money and planning to move. If they had that kind of money, they'd already have spent it on drugs or alcohol. If they had the kind of mental capacity to save money to improve their situation, they wouldn't be homeless.

5. Clearly, because we haven't built favelas yet, as recommended by the visionary that wrote 'Average Is Over.'

5. You think being poor is hard? Try being poor where you have no friends.

Seems like the most correct answer to #5.

I'd agree here. Presumably there are social networks, regular hang outs, or donors who come by often enough to make this the case.

3. Norway Chess was great fun, part due to the format and most of all because Judit Polgar was commentating. (All on YouTube, here is round 9:
I’d love to see Judit on CWT or maybe Vishy Anand.

Once they get to lower cost southern states more can afford not to be homeless, renting a cheap place with govt benefits. And with fewer big cities, lower population density and fewer dolts to drop change in their cups, the homeless lifestyle may be harder work in the south than some alternative approaches.

What about sheltered vs unsheltered homeless? Just looking at the 20 CoCs (local planning entities responsible for homeless services) with highest and lowest figures in the 2018 HUD Homeless Assessment, (page 33), 15 of the 20 are in CA, 4 in FL, and one in OR. So it seems climate does matter for homelessness. In the HUD assessment, about 1/3 of the homeless are unsheltered overall, but the figures are in the 90% range for these 20 warm places.

Where is transport free?

What transport is both free and legal?

My guess is you can not walk from a northern State to a southern State that is non-adjacent legally, except for trails like the Appalachian.

I recall reading about people walking into DC from Virginia for work, requiring them to violate laws prohibiting pedestrians on the highway.

NYC winters are no fun, but the subway system provides a vast Motel 6 on wheels. There's also the density that makes begging more profitable than many boring depopulated downtowns

5. Guess: You can climate control by (really, really) bundling up in the middle of winter and sleep through the long, long night. Down south, you can't air condition outside and it miserably too hot to sleep outside 10 months of the year.

And the mosquitoes are out for a bigger part of teh year.

Bus ticket to LA after one brutal winter.

#5 The point of the post is that homelessness is local. The high homelessness states are also rising property value / housing cost states. No one is homeless in Arkansas or Oklahoma because rising property values / housing costs aren't blowing people out of their homes. Rising housing costs are another way to say though that housing construction is falling behind demand because of restrictions established by local / state governments (as Alex is fond of pointing out).

#1 I wouldn't want to live in crow populous areas. Crows are the intermediate and long distance carriers of West Nile Virus WNV. Mosquitoes that feed on infected crows carry the WNV to human. Human are the terminal hosts and not the carriers. Crows are very succeptable to WNV. Within the WNV epicenter 67% of dead crows show WNV positive. The WNV infection rate peaks when the crow survival rate reaches 50% and falls when there are less crows around.

Contrary to the SJWs who keep chanting that race is a social construct, WNV does not respect ethnic equality. The WNV infection odd ratio is very much higher for intelligent Whites with up to ~17% with CCR5 Delta32 of which only ~2% of Blacks and ~0% Asians have that. That could be the basis for bio WMD. Those ignorant ethicists against CCR5 germline editing/study could be the winners for the Darwin Awards. They seemed unable to read the between the lines warning from the Dean of the Harvard Medical School.

The global hotbed of WNV is the Middle East. Last year I was alerted when the European WNV infection rate in one year jumped to more than the sum of the past seven years. The trend did not repeat in US. I'll be monitoring the WNV infection rate this summer.

The strange thing is that WNV had spread to France and Spain but Lancet had reported that WNV had not been detected in UK. The question is if the WNV could not cross the narrow British Channel why it could cross the Atlantic Oceans to US? A few stowaway WNV infected crows in planes or someone put them there? The US WNV strain has been traced to be with Israel origin and it started spreading in US from NYC.

Homeless people, like anyone else, have a certain amount of explicit and tacit knowledge about how to navigate their area. They have some real or perceived knowledge about how to manage the local police, where to get hot meals, where the truly "public" restrooms are, where to find dealers, and where they can sleep.

Moving sacrifices this knowledge. Worse moving south, outside of California, does not actually improve the weather. Florida, for instance, may not be bitterly cold, but hurricanes manage to disrupt possession accumulation (e.g. shopping carts full of clothes) and more importantly they disrupt the drug supply. Absent air conditioning, I would also submit that hot weather is not all that desireable. If it is cold you can normally bundle up and frankly I suspect that many homeless people use cold weather as leverage to beg tangible benefits (e.g. stores let people linger in cold weather). Hot weather can only be fixed by finding shade or water absent air conditioning.

If these folks were able to navigate new locations and find the basic necessities of life on the fly, they likely would not be homeless in the first place.

#5. Perhaps the homeless do move to warmer cities.

I thought a metropolitan area would be a more natural unit of analysis than a state, so I did a little searching. The the NAEH report The State of Homelessness in America 2012 provides homelessness rates for the largest 100 metropolitan areas in 2011, aggregated by MSA the official HUD data collected at the finer "Continuum of Care" level (the local planning entities responsible for homeless services, as references by Susan Woodward above) .

In those data there is a stark, very significant positive correlation between average January temperature and homelessness. The following link should get to a scatterplot where the relationship jumps out:

I tried commenting on Richard Green's original post and asking if he could rerun the analysis by MSA with his data, but I must have fallen foul of his moderation system because my comment never made it to his blog, or presumably to him either.

What a job:

Summary -- White people can't sleep. In the cold, that is.

It does seem like most of our homeless here in Florida come from other states.
Maybe it is that places like DC are making marginal people homeless due to high and rising home prices.

A bit late, but this is the best blogginheads thingy I think.

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