Monday assorted links

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4 - It happens when you drive on the wrong side of the road.

I have another contender for UK roadkill:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1148298496140820480?s=19

Remember when you pretended to wait for someone to bring up Trump in unrelated threads?

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Yeah, I felt peppery today.

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Here's Lyman Stone on the citizenship question last year: https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/4/5/17202092/census-question-citizenship-immigration-trump-deportation-undercount-latino-hispanic

Logical fallacies on display. Most blatant, Trump is not forcing anyone not to respond.

And, it's not about undercounting Latinos or Hispanics. It's about actually counting illegal invaders and non-citizens, which has many law-enforcement and statutory governmental purposes.

The Obama judge's likely issue is ending the fatal flaw (that a Republican could be elected president) in the Constitution by adding 10 or 20 million more illegal, fraudulent democrat voters.

Citing Dr. Seuss or Emma Lazarus' (Who voted for her?) poem doesn't make it legit.

America is not ruled by a judicial oligarchy. There is no legal or Constitutional (cite chapter and verse) barrier to the co-equal Executive Branch asking a question on a Federal form.

President Trump should "pull" an Andrew Jackson.

Those here dishonestly/illegally likely will decline or lie on census forms. That's not Trump's responsibility.

In addition, everything vox vomits is bull shit.

Did you even read the article before emitting that word salad into the world? The subtitle is "The progressive freakout makes no sense" (but then again, neither does your comment). Stone lays out why it's no big deal to have the question on the census. But I certainly learned one thing: when the comment author is Dick the Butcher, don't bother reading the words that follow.

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And here is a little random economic news:

"Breitbart's White House correspondent (@MichelleDiana) is expected to join the White House. She's slated to take a job in the office of the National Economic Council, headed by Larry Kudlow."

Oh cool, Michelle is the kind of gal that retweets this headline:

"Sweden: Female Cops Told to Submit to Islamic State or Be Raped"

Keep it classy, Trump White House.

The truth is declasse.

It's a funny way to report that a crazy guy was safely arrested, and convicted, for threats to two female officers.

Yeah, but the problem isn't that one crazy guy it's the 100,000 other crazy guys.

That's what Breitbart would like us to think, and thats why they tried to stretch one guy into a scary headline.

You don't have 100,000 guys. You have 1.

Somebody else is going to say that there aren't 100,000 neo-Nazis out there, just one nutjob in Charlottesville.

For every problem, there's one side trying to minimize it and the other side exaggerates.

We can be real about numbers and evidence. Charlottesville had the very dramatic "The Jews will not replace us!" tiki torch parade. That was bad without that one guy (who did worse).

I don't know, maybe there have been bad Sharia law demonstrations somewhere. But actually show them, you know?

Don't imply them with a misleading headline.

This entire debate is idiotic. But sure, numbers:

Swedish ISIS fighters per 100,000 Muslim population is 60. For reference, murder rate in Sweden is 1.14 per 100,000. 810,000 Muslims : 4,860 Swedish ISIS fighters who moved to the IS to wage jihad. No torches. Just murder and rape.

The SPLC estimates 5,000-8,000 KKK members in the US. Which is sure to be wildly inflated. The ADL estimates 3,000 nationwide, which is also most likely inflated.

But sure go with that. That means KKK membership, at 1.15 per 100,000 whites (roughly 4 TOTAL members per a city like SF) is about 52 times less prevalent than ISIS fighter status for Swedish Muslims. And if we can use Econ for a second, the cost to join the KKK is substantially less than guaranteed death or imprisonment, the fate of most ISIS fighters.

I’m not sure what the point of this exercise is, Nordic countries have been an absolute failure at integration for years. That’s where the attention needs to be.

I have no problem with those numbers. They all look low.

The nice thing about ISIS fighters is that they actually leave, eh?

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"1. The citizenship question in Canada."

Clearly Canada is run by Right wing extremists. {sarcasm}

I can't say I've only seen Canada from my friend Jeffery Epstein's plane!

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It started in 1901. Are you telling me the attitudes of people won't be considered old-fashioned in the 21st century? The true test is to put it to vote in today's Canada.

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"That same question has been part of Canada's long-form census for over a century without a ripple, although it's not part of the short-form questionnaire."

LONG FORM, it used to be in the LONG FORM in the US as well. In the 2010 Census, the LONG FORM was replaced by the ACS, and the citizen question is still included in the ACS to this day.
The actual Decenial Census sent out to everyone is now just the SHORT FORM that in Canada does not include a citizen question.

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1. The citizenship question in Canada.
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Justice Roberts is mentally ill.

I believe the question turned on administrative law matters, not whether citizenship questions are permissible. Under the Administrative Procedure Act, agencies must give reasoned explanations for their decisions. The courts did not buy the reasons CB gave. This is one in a long line of court decisions striking down agency actions for improper analysis. Generally a good thing from a conservatives point of view.

But clearly, ideology played a role in the outcome, having little to do with the census question.

Trump's cabinet basically made up the rationale of enforcing the Voting Right Act. Yeah sure. Roberts was right to call that out. What is sad though is that the rest of conservative wing seem to be okay with an ideologically run government rather than a rational, procedural one.

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OK, tel us apply that.
Kamala just announced support of a home loan program for blacks, though the actual law will be race neutral. Her 'reasoned explanation' was supporting Black. According to the reasoned explanation, that fails. That reasonable explanation is a violation of the 14th. We can further apply that, Kamala by her statement can never ever introduce a housing bill, until the statue of limitations.

But, explain to me how the Administrative Procedure act, pass by Congress, can be applied when the power of census is mandated directly to the executive by constitution? The supremes interposed Congress where Congress was not specified, a major violation of separation of power.
Justice Roberts is mentally ill.

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"That same question has been part of Canada's long-form census for over a century without a ripple, although it's not part of the short-form questionnaire."

LONG FORM, it used to be in the LONG FORM in the US as well. In the 2010 Census, the LONG FORM was replaced by the ACS, and the citizen question is still included in the ACS to this day.
The actual Decenial Census sent out to everyone is now just the SHORT FORM that in Canada does not include a citizen question.

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3. “A new screen-free parenting coach economy

Great!

Those new jobs for old folks.

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4. UK roadkill data,
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We used to have a shock jock in the San Jose who had this game on morning radio. He would announce each road kill so the poor can go eat. One day there was no road kill, so he sent his secretary out onto the street to fulfill the need. He was fired the next day.

Do you know what "Greasemanelli" did to get fired? Maybe it's ancient history.

That's why I keep a snow shovel in the truck.

Only pick up road kill that wasn't there when you headed out to Walmart. That way you know it's fresh.

I am still laughing, great stuff.

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1. Waldman said it's possible a census result showing a high percentage of undocumented people in a specific region of the U.S. could lead to stepped-up Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) patrols there.

news story: Canadian immigration lawyer unaware that the US has legal non-citizen residents

I don't think your conclusion make sense.

I don't see how another conclusion is possible. This was not going to be an "illegal immigrant" box. It would not show areas with high percentage of illegal immigrants.

I guess the idea is that there are a lot of people who don't trust ICE. I think that's why this isn't a big deal in Canada there's generally more trust in the institutions there. Maybe it's ill-founded but there is a lot of distrust there. Maybe ICE would just use high levels of non-citizen residences as an excuse to go harrass people in those neighbourhoods.

Canada doesn’t share a border with Mexico.

The end.

I see you've seen North America from Jeffery Epstein's plane too!

Great guy that Epstein. High IQ, great at math, great at porking.

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Prior needs to get his meds checked again.

Thankfully he’s assured us that he’s covered by universal insurance.

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4. AKA biases in selection of reported data... No way is the badger the most frequently killed mammal on the road (compared to squirrels, mice, etc.), but definitely would be more reported.

Not entirely true. There are fossiliferous formations that have an over-abundance of predators, which is weird--predators are by definition more rare than herbivores in an ecosystem! One explanation is that a prey animal dies, and predators go to eat it, and get killed themselves. This iterates a few times (a wolf tries to eat a deer, a mountain lion tries to eat the dead wolf, a hawk tries to eat the dead mountain lion, a wolf tries to eat the dead hawk, ad infinitum) and you get a situation where the ecosystem has a normal predator/prey ratio, but the fossil bed has one that's HEAVILY skewed to predators.

Something similar can happen with roadkill. A prey animal dies near the road, and multiple predators get killed trying to eat it.

There are also differences in fear responses that may play a roll. If your response is to get out of Dodge, you may survive better than something who's fear response is "Stand and fight".

Fair enough, that is a possible mechanism that could explain badgers being the highest number reported. But add in the fact that I've spent a decent amount of time in the UK and seen roadkill there and in the US, I'll still go with the bias in reporting hypothesis.

I definitely agree that biased reporting is a significant factor here. The issue is removing that bias from the reporting. Road kill is a major ecological force right now, and figuring out how it works is going to be vital to understanding how to establish the next long-term stable ecological paradigm (the last one ended about 12ka, and whether Environmentalists like it or not humans are going to be central to the next one.)

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1. From the link: "Immigration lawyer Lorne Waldman said the political and electoral landscape in Canada is drastically different from the one in the U.S. and would not allow for that kind of "gerrymandering" — the manipulation of electoral boundaries to favour one party over others.
"In Canada, we have an impartial electoral commission that redistributes the electoral boundaries according to the law based on objective criteria," he said. "It's not an issue here at all, because we don't have that kind of gerrymandering that they have in the U.S."

2790 comments

It will probably have a million by tomorrow. The day after that, enough gravity to pull the moon out of orbit.

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#2

Robin Hanson claims to be "libertarian leaning" -- whatever that means.

where are his feet planted as he leans ?

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1. Don't tell anyone, but Canada also requires photo ID for voting, too. (There's a loophole: if you forgot your ID at home, you can still vote if someone vouches for your identity. But the overwhelming majority just show their ID.)

Donald Trump is a very flawed human being, but it's just mindboggling to see procedures that are utterly routine in every other Western democracy being interpreted in the US as part of some sinister neo-fascist conspiracy. American exceptionalism is as strong with the left as it is with the right.

I think it comes down to a lot of Americans distrusting the government in a way you don't get in other western nations. And I don't think a lot of this mistrust is unfounded. American institutions are heavily politicized in a way that you do not generally find in other developed countries. Yes, you can have photo ID required for voting but the photo idea needs to also be fairly easy to obtain. A lot of these laws are indeed passed cynically and then all of a sudden DMVs start shutting down and "consolidating".

No, America is not uniquely politicized or polarized or mistrustful.

Europe provides many examples of people severely distrusting their governments. Consider the yellow vests of France, or the rudderless Brexit-muddled UK. Radically populist movements won elections in recent years in Greece and Italy. Orbán in Hungary established his regime thanks to massive mistrust and rejection of the older order, and today he himself is deeply distrusted by many. Poland is also an incredibly polarized society right now.

Hong Kong is maybe a small outpost of "west" in the east, and they sure don't trust their government right now.

Other countries had institutions historically segregated along religious and sociopolitical lines. Consider pillarisation in the Netherlands, the Catholic-Protestant divide in Northern Ireland, even the way your religion determines which football club you cheer for in Glasgow.

What's happening in America, and no doubt elsewhere, is that pressure groups calculate desirable outcomes based on naked partisan self-interest, and then work backwards to invent an often-absurd rationalization for them, with a heavy dose of blather and pretense about upholding sacred principles.

It's telling Photo ID voting opponents aren't pushing for photo IDs to be cheap and easy to obtain, as you suggest. They would not be satisfied if that solution was offered as a compromise. Any ID requirement at all is framed as "vote suppression". So it's tempting to just shrug over Republican transgressions if neither side actually cares about the moral high ground.

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It is not exceptionalism but American history that has shaped who we are today. Read up on the Cold War antics the FBI and CIA committed against large segments of Americans. Let's say it is the exact opposite of building trust in your people. The Canadian government has been much kinder to its people so they reap the benefits from that. To speak to the issue, a citizenship question is not strictly needed for a census. They just need to know that you exist and that's about it.

Nothing special there. Read up on what the Nazis and Stalinists committed against large segments of Europeans. Every place in the world has been shaped by its history.

Maybe censuses aren't needed anymore. According to Wikipedia, Germany hasn't had one since 1987. If researchers want detailed data about the population, they should just ask Google and Facebook, or seek to preserve the detailed neighborhood-by-neighborhood data compiled by modern political campaigns.

Actually Germany did have a census in 2011, but not the traditional kind that everyone fills out.

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In Germany you need to formally register in every municipality you live in so they can keep track of people without a census.

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1) I was surprised to hear that the citizenship question had been on previous Census forms but was removed by the Obama Administration.
I actually worked the 2000 Census but topped that when my town hired me to conduct a dog census.

4) I once read a piece of short fiction about a county worker whose job was to cruise the interstate loop (around Dallas I believe) and pick up roadkill. I wish I could remember how it ended.

If you read Tyler's column yesterday, he said it was in there until 1950.

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You should be surprised because what you assert is not true.
Occasionally a citizenship question is included on the long form census questionnaire that only a small fraction of people receive. The general form that everyone receives has NEVER asked about citizenship, going all the way back to 1790.
And no, the Obama administration did not remove such a question.
Moreover it is Congress not the White House which governs the census despite Trump's belief that he's in charge of it.

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4. Weather: The problem is the earth goes through cycles of about 500 years. So, nothing new here. BTW, North America has been around for 300 million years. Do you think 150 years tells you everything you need to know about climate?

"The problem is the earth goes through cycles of about 500 years."

There are about a dozen different cycles that affect weather/climate. Pretty much any number you put in the above sentence will be wrong. The issue is to understand the component cycles, how they interact with each other, and how they affect the planet, individually and in aggregate. Not terribly easy.

"BTW, North America has been around for 300 million years."

Since Pangea didn't really start to break up until 250 million years ago, I find this number suspect.

The real issues are the opening of the Circumantarctic Current, the closing of the Isthmus of Panama, the shutdown of the Circumpolar Current, the raising of the Himalayas, and the end of the Permo-Triassic (last time we saw an ice age on the planet). OIS-11 is also critical, but for different reasons (anyone who has to ask why is too ignorant about climate science to contribute meaningfully to the discussion; that would be like asking a mechanic "Why is gas important in the car? Just make it run!").

"Do you think 150 years tells you everything you need to know about climate?"

This is a bit more accurate. For my money, anyone who discusses climate without understanding paleoclimatology is a fraud. Paleoclimatology is literally the field that studies past climate, which should be considered a prerequisite to holding an informed opinion on this topic.

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#2..It looks like Prof Hanson is saying, "Listen G-d, I'm getting frozen and then living forever, so back off."

He and Ted Williams, they could be right!? And if memories stay implanted in the brain as neural connections, maybe he comes back and remembers everything the way it was now, 500 years from now?! Rip Van Winkle, but with no RIP!

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Something way wrong with the roadkill figures. Far too low in total, and relatively far to high for badgers and foxes.

I cycle three or four times a week and see roadkill everyride. Never seen a badger, once seen a fox. Usually small and furry, sometimes small and spikey or feathery. Once a young deer.

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4. Poor badgers - I wonder if their deaths have anything to do with the stupid UK backroads with tall hedges on both sides. I'd expect the deer of the big games to be normally in lead in Continental Europe - since it has fish-eye vision and awful reaction times. The deer may just jump in front of a car from nowhere, it has totally unpredictable behavior. Plus they can vastly outnumber smaller games due to artificial population control in hunting areas.
Both foxes and badgers are far more cautious animals, if they sense danger (in the form of your car's noise or headlamps) they rush the hell away from the spot they are standing, you have to approach with a really high speed or from a really unnoticable position (hint: from a corner) to hit them.
The hedgehog and the pheasant checks out, though mapping snakes too would probably put them out of the lead.

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