My NBA bet with Kevin (Angus) Grier

If the Denver Nuggets win the NBA title, I send Kevin $75.  If the Los Angeles Clippers win, he sends me $25.

I say this year there is no parity, and the Clippers (barring injury) are clearly better than any other team.

Time will tell!

Comments

These odds exist and seems you had the positive EV bet:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/basketball/market/1.159700186

clippers odds ~22% ~(1/4.4)
nuggets odds ~5% ~(1/21)

538 has 20% - 6% which is slightly closer
seems you won, but weird no one checked quotes

I think the Chinese are going to win.

EdR, try to make some sense on this blog, plz.

the irony is that this is supposed to be one of the years with the most parody at the top expected to be around 8 legitimate NBA finals contenders. We'll see if Tyler is right. I put my money on the clippers too but it's tough to count out teams like the Sixers which do have significant room for internal growth as the season progresses.

Tyler eats the free lunch!

I'd do that bet (with Kevin).

I'll take all the other NBA teams in this one. At the beginning of the season things look rosy but injuries and poor play can not be predicted at this point in time.

I dunno, Tyler. I like the Wizards this year.

Prior to the season, and ignoring the bettors' odds, I would've agreed with Kevin and bet in favor of the Nuggets and against the Clippers at those odds.

The Clippers are looking good so far even with Paul George still out, but it's still early. I need to look at their roster more closely. They have two obvious superstars and two near all-stars in Harrell and Lou Williams but the rest of their roster does not immediately impress.

Seems odd to me: Clippers took the Warriors to game 6 of the first round last year, while the Nuggets needed 7 to get past the Spurs before losing in the second round.

Clippers added the best player in the league and another all star, while losing effectively no one. Nuggets... not so much.

Gallinari and SGA

In other words, the Clippers lost in the first round as they usually do, while the Nuggets made it to the second round.

But why look at the playoffs, which by definition means focusing on a small sample size? The Nuggets won 54 games last year, the Clippers 48.

The Clippers obviously improved themselves greatly this off-season. But they lost Gallinari and Gilgeous-Alexander. I can see them being more likely champions than the Nuggets. But 3:1?

Also I still remember how Tyler was overly enamored of the Nets' 2013 acquisition of Garnett and Pierce, and picked them to win the championship.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/11/nba-predictions-time.html

Switch the Nuggest with the Sixers and I'd make that bet (with TC)!

I think the Sixers starting five matches up very well against the Clippers. Not to mention the have almost a free ride to the finals since the East is so weak this year.

Almost. The East is the Greek Freak's to do with as he pleases.

PS: Philadelphia is America's trashiest city!

Hell yeah we are!

🎵No one likes us and we don't care🎵

LeBron James: “Had to emergency evacuate my house and I’ve been driving around with my family trying to get rooms,” he said in a Twitter message.

The king tweets while LA burns.

Stuff like that doesn't happen in Cleveland, Bronnie.

Even if LA turned into a pile of ashes it's still better than a shithole like Cleveland.

You can't do this kind of bet with mere cash. The stakes must be inanely stereotypical signature local products such as blue crab, cheesesteaks or KC BBQ. So your Texas Tech economist buddy must put up a load of brisket.

Can I just say basketball is a basket case!!

When was the last time there was parity in the NBA?

In Kawhi, the Clips have the best postseason player. They have incredible lockdown defense with Kawhi, PG, and PBev. And they have the highest quality depth in the league with Montrezl and Lou. Who’s gonna beat that?

Ummm, how 'about BronBron and The Brow? Denver could do it, and Sactown is 0-3 right now but I think they'll surprise folks (including Kawhi). Utah ain't no joke.

That said, Denver’s big boy is the unicorniest of them all. No joke.

That said, Denver’s big boy is the unicorniest of them all. No joke.

Tell Kevin to restart Cherokee Gothic! The domain name lapsed!

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