Thursday assorted links


3. Ann Althouse coined the rule for researchers that whenever any sex difference results are reported they must portray whatever is true of females as superior. There's clearly a comparable rule for climate change where all real or potential effects must be reported as negative. Who's going name that rule?


So that is the future: the liquidation of A erica's might.

The many lies and flawed computer models, the persecution of anyone who dares disagree and the firing of someone who points out a good result of the claimed AGW really tells you so much about this scam and the scammers.

It's clearly not working as everybody knows about the net benefits to high latitude places, the benefits of an an ice free Arctic, higher gorwth of plants in higher CO2 concentrations, etc. What is a bit annoying is when these benefits are touted as if they demonstrate a NET aggregate benefit to CO2 accumulation implying that the optimal tax on net CO2 emissions is zero.

But what is the net negative to higher CO2 in the atmosphere. Do not cite the guesses, predictions and even "hopes" of the claimed AGW none of which have come true or are likely to come true. What exactly is the problem with the rather minor increase in CO2???

#1 According to this, by having somebody long ago or somewhere else weigh the body mass of a dead whale - by species - and then use the information from said dead whale/s to compute weight and displacement from aerial measurements.

I would've also assumed fractals, but this is ok for now.

#5 Saw this to lesser degree in China and Japan - emphasis on lesser - but it is a factor. The degree-lust exists because once you get there or past the GaoKao then you can start to think more critically, but it also robs formative years that could've been spent honing the skill.

4. Beckworth: “First, as mentioned earlier, if the public understands NGDPLT and finds it credible, then it will have less incentive to engage in excessive spending that pushes NGDP above target in the first place since the Fed will be expected to offset it. The public’s expectation of stable total dollar spending growth, then, will become self-fulfilling. This lowers the likelihood of the Fed having to correct an overshoot of the target.” Overshoot? Is it even possible to get beyond the 1970s and 1980s? Our most severe economic problems have been the result of financial crises brought on by asset bubbles. Overshoot seems the least of our problems. My question: how does NGDPLT address the problem of asset bubbles? The consensus is that contractionary monetary policy isn’t used to burst bubbles. The dilemma faced by the Fed is evident today, as the Fed is caught between the risk of an asset bubble and the risk of a recession. What’s a monetarist to do? Obsess about overshoot. [An aside, Trump seems to have stumbled upon the cure for asset bubbles: tariffs. In other words. contractionary fiscal policy.]

As an aside what’s an asset bubble?

One famous economist described it as "inflation lurking in the background", avoiding the term "asset bubble". We have chosen to rely on rising asset prices as the path to prosperity, which has produced enormous increases in wealth (and with it, inequality). Is that wealth real or is it an illusion of wealth? Owners of assets are confident that even if the "inflation lurking in the background' comes crashing down, the Fed will intervene and make right what is right. It's not a bubble if it's right, right?

Who’s the famous economist who describes an asset bubble as “inflation lurking in the background”?? If I purchase a house or AMZN and it triples in value while inflation is subdues I’m REALLY wealthier. What are you advocating ? NGDP targeting is not trying to burst any perceived “bubbles” you in your infinite wisdom are able to identity. This is a feature not a bug

So, if aging boomers start selling lots of shares of stock and houses, prices will go up even faster making you wealthiier?

The problem in 2008 was too many peoplle with too much cash buying real estate and shares of stock, thus driving asset prices down?

The thing propping up asset prices are all the immigrants to Blue urban areas.

Asset prices in Red rural America are going down. Its invisible because once a house is vacated and leaves the market because there are no buyers, it burns down, or is bulldozed, it vanishes from the statistics, thus the declining pool of assets seem to increase in "wealth".

There is zero shortage of real estate or places to build housing in America, but almost all those places are in Red America. It's only Blue America where immigrants, mostly from Red America, create too much growth in demand for real estate assets.

If markets worked as economists claim, Red America would be investing heavily to attract the future industries, like solar, wind, electric storage, electric vehicles, heat pumps, plow resource use sustainable ag production. The high cost jobs created by those industries would lure immigrants from places not investing, and the higher cost workers will demand higher cost housing, driving up real estate prices.

Growing up in Red America before the 70s, I saw llots of housing, and factories, get expanded or built in rural America, increasing costs. Then Red America focused on cutting costs, which reversed the building an improving of assets, and ended up in the destruction of asset values in Red America.

If under "immigrants" you are including internal migrants, then you're right. People who can afford to pay extravagant rents or buy outrageously priced houses are the ones driving up real estate prices. There are exceptions of course, but that isn't usually foreign immigrants fresh off the boat. Many of them end up living in downscale neighborhoods where prices are stagnant or even falling due to deteriorating real estate and crime problems.

If you think there are asset bubbles, then you must say that there are readily identifiable examples of market inefficiency. What you should do is keep quiet and find a way to short those assets. You'll be rich! Just keep buying out of the money, long dated puts, riches await friend.

Me, I think asset prices reflect a forecasted series of probability density functions. Stocks rise when the expected path of corporate profits rises, which happens when expected NGDP rises. Under your tinfoil-finance model, you've got to explain why easy money causes broad spectrum inflation in Turkey, Argentina or Zimbabwe, but in the USA it "goes into" asset prices, leaving the dollar near recent historical highs on forex markets, and measured consumer prices hardly changed for years and years. Quite a trick.

Most younger salt water economists, you know the actual non tinfoil hat ones, strongly disagree with your unscientific take.

MMT is the breath of the fresh air in a field dominated by corporate funded studies. Science yes, pseudoscience No. Inflation in Zimbabwe was caused by insufficient disinflationary taxes, the IMF demanding cash, and corruption.

Million of houses and other real estate can be bought below the cost of building something equivalent, which can easily be built nearby.

The problem is the cheap real estate is in Red America, and those who are worth the high cost of paying them to work are all in Blue urban America, so those who can work emigrant from Red American and immigrate to Blue America creating too much demand for real estate in about 10% of the "land of the free", which is hardly free, but rather costly.

Why doesn't Red America act to lure high cost workers who will be able to pay prices higher than the cost to build assets like houses in places where lots of houses can be sold at prices just high enough to pay costs, mostly just labor costs? Ie, in many areas, land can be bought from the tax collect for a few bucks, simply to have real estate built to generate tax revenue.

Why don't you do it?

Nobody wants to live in those sh*tholes. That's why they leave, Einstein.


so a specific molecule can exist in two different locations simultaneously.
very very few people know or care.

the world is not only stranger than we imagine-- it's stranger than we can imagine.

Meh. It's not that strange. You and I have never had any idea where the molecules are.

Knowledge doesn't explain the strange interference of particles, but knowledge does destroy interference, that's the stranger part

Indeed, I've heard there are people who sincerely enjoy Pumpkin Spice.

"3. The climate change billboard culture that is Alberta."

"The University of Alberta’s top official in charge of the school’s public image has resigned after approving and defending a billboard advertisement in Edmonton that seemed to tout the benefits of climate change."

She committed heresy by publicizing the wrong Facts and had to be purged.

"Greg Goss, who was Dr. Faramarzi’s supervisor when she wrote the paper, said the point of the research was to help the government and producers adapt to the challenges of climate change.

“There’s lots of people who on both sides, whether they are climate change deniers or climate change warriors, whatever you want to call them, who completely misrepresent the issues.""

Clearly this guy will have to go also.

A science professor was fired for shilling pseudoscientific propaganda, probably at the behest of the local oil interest patrons.

I don’t see the problem here. We should all want to live in a society where Scientists promote science.

You've gotten nearly everything wrong with your comment. But that's pretty typical.

"A science professor was fired "

No, it was the school’s vice-president of university relations and she resigned.

"for shilling pseudoscientific propaganda"

No, it was based upon an actual scientific paper by a researcher at the university. Though the researcher pointed out that her paper didn't claim that climate change was only going to have positive effects.

"probably at the behest of the local oil interest patrons."

This is just your fevered imagination and general craziness talking.

"We should all want to live in a society where Scientists promote science."

Science means sticking with the Facts, not forcing out those who don't re-iterate the party narrative at every opportunity. There's very little doubt that there will be some good results from climate change, but it's clear that anyone who brings them up will be dealt with harshly. This isn't Science, it's closer to religious zealotry.

Don't feed the troll.

Referring to the aptly named Rat of course. Who waged a disinformation campaign of No Collusion on these pages for months.

“It is our moral responsibility to adapt and prepare for that so that we can help to feed the rest of the world."

Yeah, sure it is. The Alberta farming community is just one big posse of Sister Theresas.

3. For some reason, this story reminded me of k.d. lang's song Big Boned Gal. It starts with these lyrics:

She was a big boned gal from southern Alberta
You just couldn't call her small
And you can bet every Saturday night
She'd be heading for the legion hall

It's a tune that I haven't been able to get out of my head for decades. Hey, hey, the big boned gal. The rest of the lyrics can be found at this link:

#2...Unreal. I'm a big fan of the books of David Deutsch and Max Tegmark. Recommended for general readers like me with no expertise.

So now Quantum has completely prevailed? Bohr won? I’m a historian not a physicist... just a sceptical dilettante however.

The kid should just go to ETH in Switzerland. It's free and admission is just based on a test in English. Better than any university in the United States with the exception of MIT or Caltech. And none of the "letters of recommendation", fake charity bs. I


Thiago, if you're going to pretend to be a country-first American patriot then don't root for the Swiss.

Good suggestion. I'd also suggest Minerva.

#3: If you're going to do a news story about a billboard, I dunno, maybe a photo of the billboard would help?

Globe and Mail 0, Edmonton Journal 1

“The study was funded in part by the Alberta Livestock and Meat Agency”

This is why we need publicly funded elections. And much stronger truth in advertising/publication laws. A world where anyone with money can throw enough lies into the public ether is not one we should want to foster.

You think Alberta won't be a winner in the climate change story??

With acidified oceans, plummeting fish stocks, extreme weather killing agricultural crops, and zero nutrition crop yields? It’s already been demonstrated in numerous scientific articles that increased CO2 leads to larger yields but zero nutritional value of said yields.

For the curious.

You might want to read the science section of the IPCC AR5 at some point.
Not related to climate change but fish stock have largely rebounded from their lowest levels.

This is the troll. His whole game is to take my 6 and dial it to 11.

Acidified oceans, plummeting fish stocks, and extreme weather are all real, but "killing agricultural crops, and zero nutrition crop yields" is the punchline.

#4...Seems about time to try it.


#3 - Not sure how this constitutes a "culture".

A University put up a billboard selectively highlighting data which makes climate change look like a good thing, even when the paper the billboard cited was careful to avoid such a characterization. The PR person responsible did bad PR and thus resigned.

4. David Beckworth on ngdp level targeting.
For example. Say we decided finance has not paid the central bank monopoly fee since the Nixon shock. So we create a New Fed contract that gives the New Fed complete independence in exchange for defaulting on government bonds at the rate of 2% per year for 15 years, back payment for monopoly fees. We further stipulate that the New Fed may renew its contract with another set of default yielding 1% of debt relief per year.

Than we just implement a default process, a hedging algorithms that does what Beckworth wants, a good idea.

I’m still stuck on blue whales that weigh 190,000 kg. That’s got to be wrong, doesn’t it?

Yeah, I was wondering that too. But wikipedia says 110K to 330K pounds, so that's what 50-150K Kg? So 190Kg might be believable.

#3 It is obvious that climate change conspiracy is a male invention. Just watch the genders fight for control of the office thermostat where males prefer cooler temperature while female the reverse. Warmer climate also boost the female IQ, just watch that in Middle East, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc with hotter climate, the females have higher educational attainments than the males. That girl from Scandinavia does not know what she is talking about and what is at stake.

Completely dependent on the ages of the females.

Trump has already established scientifically that global warming is a Chinese hoax. Read his thesis at Trump University. Liberals hate science.

Has anyone ever observed a significant supply shock? The best candidate was the increase in oil prices in '72 but how big was that? [No fair counting the disruption caused by internal price controls.] And the inflation spike in 2008? How big a deviation in the PL was it in the Fed's preferred price level indicator? Beckman didn't model the losses from PL targeting v NGDPL targeting. And PL targeting is after all only what the Fed claims to have been doing. Why not try hitting one's existing target rather than change?

2. Quantum superposition of scientific candor?

“Why not see how far you can go and learn what the limits are?" physicist Herman Batelaan of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, who was not involved in the study, tells Popular Mechanics. "It's a beautiful motivation to do this work."

"See how far you can go, to learn what the limits are." --could be the motto for those members of the Science Establishment pleased to have conjured Technogenic Climate Change over the course of decades and centuries, just to see how far phenomena could go, just to learn what limits might be bypassed or overflown or otherwise exceeded.

Equipped with "Batelaan's Motto" as a sufficient motive for satisfying the academic curiosities of contemporary scientists (experimentalists and theoreticians both), the entire Universe awaits our conquest, certo.

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