Using daily state-level coronavirus data and a synthetic control research design, we find that California’s statewide SIPO reduced COVID-19 cases by 152,443 to 230,113 and COVID-19 deaths by 1,940 to 4,951 during the first three weeks following its enactment. Conservative back of the envelope calculations suggest that there were approximately 2 to 4 job losses per coronavirus case averted and 108 to 275 jobs losses per life saved during this short-run post-treatment period.
That is from a new NBER working paper by Friedson, McNichols, Sabia, and Dave. As you probably know from now, I am reluctant to take “how well have we done with death so far” estimates at face value, but there you go. You now have your California estimate of the day.