Monday assorted links

Comments

#4 I say we nip the problem innthe bud. Let us ship some nuclear wespons to Vietnam. I am sure it would give Beijing's ruling cabal pause.

6.Thiago, mi amore
its a not so brave new world
at harvard lingiists assert citing a study is now" coopting" a study
harvard sowed the khale
now we are getting a whiff of the whirlwind

5. Of course, early in the pandemic the most vulnerable were likely to be infected, such as those in nursing homes, and the medical staff treating such a large volume of contagious patients. Today, the most likely to be infected are the young people who resumed active social lives after their states lifted the lockdown orders, such as Florida, Texas, and Arizona. Will the spike in new cases be limited to the less vulnerable? I don't know. What I do know is that nursing homes and other care facilities are no better prepared than they were in April. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/us-repeating-deadliest-pandemic-mistake-nursing-home-deaths/613855/

As we wait for what's ahead, pharmaceutical companies prepare for a potential huge windfall. Would it not be to their advantage to keep the public at least somewhat in fear? We read much about "signaling" at this blog. What are the pharmaceutical companies and their defenders signaling? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/opinion/coronavirus-vaccine-cost.html

I wonder if the New York Times sees any advantage in the way they report news related to the Wuhan Flu. Glass houses, stones, etc.

I suppose calling it the Wuhan flu serves double duty: it blames the inadequate response in America on the Chinese and reminds Americans that the virus could be germ warfare by those the Chinese against America and that taking the vaccine is a form of combat against the Chinese. Signaling. To be clear, this result still may change, and if so I will report.

This coronavirus has now been found in sewage in Spain, Italy, and Brazil in November 2019 or earlier, pre-dating the first cases in Wuhan. The first known cases in France have also been traced to December. Calling it the Wuhan Flu will look pretty embarrassing if it turns out, as is looking increasingly plausible, this virus did not originate in Wuhan, or even did not originate in China at all. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8493239/Expert-Covid-19-dormant-world-emerging-China.html

Evidence points to the virus being present in Wuhan in October.

An equally likely hypothesis would be that the virus has been around longer than even these data points, spreading unchecked across the globe. This is compounded by the fact that it presents with very similar symptoms to other common viruses, such as the flu. Of course it would also mean that the lockdowns were more or less pointless, which is why no one wants to talk about it.

Regardless, I think you would agree that a new SARS virus originating from bats just happened to be spread from another location into the country where the last SARS outbreak occurred, in the immediate vicinity of both a wet market and a virology lab.

But hey, I've got my fingers crossed for you.

My understanding is that coronaviruses are known for causing the common cold, not the flu. That's why coughing is a major symptom.

Let’s just stop with thinking about people’s feelings and the pc bullshit. We know the closest virus related to this thing was identified years ago in an abandoned copper mine in Yunnan. We know that virus killed multiple people at the time. We know it was isolated by scientists in the field and sent back to WIV for analysis.

We know most of these sorts of viruses tend to emerge from southern China. We also know that a lot of cases don’t link back to the first market. Looking at the epidemiological curses back at the beginning of this when Diamond Princess was still a horror show, I don’t recall seeing a lot of mystery cases outside of China. Simply put, China is where you have the first spike of community spread. The idea that this isn’t Chinese in origin only makes sense if your ascribe to theories about the French or Americans unleashing this as a bio weapon.

It would be a remarkable coincidence indeed, if a zoonotic virus similar to SARS-CoV1 originated somewhere else ( say Europe or Brazil) but somehow the first instances of SARS-CoV-2 of it , were confirmed in 41 people hospitalized in Wuhan , two-thirds of whom had direct exposure to the wet animal market there.

.... And all the phylogenetic analyses in actually infected people to date have indicated that the most basal diversity in mutations is in China, with other regions ceded from multiple sources that undergo later, downstream, explosive growth. Somehow.

So did they actually tag all the sequence markers or is this just a rehash of that crappy paper where two sequence markers popped and most likely represents a different coronavirus with significant sequence homology?

Calling it the Wuhan flu serves to distract from the fact that the U.S. has been paying the Wuhan virology lab to research bat viruses. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/nih-cuts-coronavirus-funding-amid-trump-comments-and-conspiracy-theories/

To be clear, I alternate between that and Deep State Fever.

I prefer The Trump Virus. Because the Trump administration has provided such level-headed leadership in uncertain times. Lol.

Frankly, I do think the leadership exhibited by Trump during this is better than we'd have seen from any other president.

I'm not thrilled with it, but we haven't seen dumb policies go out, we've seen the FDA/CDC get reined in and the private sector be allowed to do what needs to be done.

Testing is also a huge success, the last few pandemics our testing was severely hampered by reliance on CDC/FDA.

Overall, Feds didn't do too bad.

A plausible case can be made that COVID-19 only became a pandemic because of failures in policy, tact and execution by the CDC and the State department. The USA was thought by the rest of the world as the traffic cop and supervisor who would manage the Chinese and lead the rest of the world's response. Except no action came from the USA.

We'd abdicated responsibility without even bothering to tell anyone. The world should not make the mistake of relying on us again.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/how-white-house-coronavirus-response-went-wrong/613591/

the atlantic doesn't understand much about virology, immunology or viral pandemics. one rarely reported recent success is that u.s. health care workers don't seem to be dying of the virus as often as they were 3 months ago.

And a good thing, too. It has been known at least since the days of SARS that bat coronaviruses pose a risk to humans if they make the jump across species, as SARS, MERS, and now SARS-CoV-2 did. We should have done more of this research. Bat viruses, influenza, and antibiotic resistant bacteria are three of the biggest long-term pandemic threats there are.

Bat virus research is a good thing depending upon how it's regulated. We know one of the 2 political parties is on a deregulation trip. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-us-is-funding-dangerous-experiments-it-doesnt-want-you-to-know-about/2019/02/27/5f60e934-38ae-11e9-a2cd-307b06d0257b_story.html

"pharmaceutical companies prepare for a potential huge windfall"

But this requires a total government take over of paying for drugs at high profit margins.

After all, only about 2% of those in the US own shares of stock whose price has been inflated to 5x, 10x, 25x the labor cost of building the actual capital assets which produce the monopoly limited supply generating high profits justifying the inflated asset prices.

The majority of patients needing the drugs have no way to pay the high drug prices, so they rely on government mandates providing them medical care at no out of pocket cost before treatment.

Obviously Trump has embraced MMT to fund free medical care at no cost, with the GOP backing getting rid of Obamacare to eliminate the cost, but not the MMT to fund high drug profits.

But what if Trump is defeated. At that point the GOP will totally oppose all payments for everything healthcare, especially paying for all drug products. Only the prospect of consumers choosing to stay home in large numbers for fear of infection will the GOP cave to businesses and fund universal vaccination payments at zero economic profits administered by Biden et al.

wayward
around here cases are up outside of but not in nursing homes due
to isolation &other public health measures that appear to be working
ok so far

Well, sorry guys, discussing about the name of the virus serves one purpose here: not discussing the subject of 5. which is that the number of deaths is still declining, a fact in clear contradiction with the views of many here about the virus (for example if you compute the average number of cases over one week ending three weeks ago, the average number of deaths over one week ending now, you get an upper bound on the mortality rate close to 1%, which means that for the 1% estimate to be true, all positive cases around the country happened to have been by chance the ones more or less randomly tested, a result visibly absurd).

5: Ooh, Tyler has advanced to the rare Triple Disclaimer!

SO FAR deaths have not spiked, and TO BE CLEAR, this MAY CHANGE.

Such bravery in reporting a basic true fact!!

We live in a world where people expect things to not change when they've heard what they want to hear. To the point of conflating science (the formal process of expanding our knowledge) with mathematical proofs. It shouldn't be necessary to remind people that things change, and yet it is.

It may be necessary as well to return to Tyler's previous posts reporting the previous increases in deaths (both scientific and a basic, true fact) to determine whether he appended such disclaimers to them.

No doubt that if deaths ever do spike (which will require him to cherry-pick the data) he will say that IN THIS ONE SPECIFIC PLACE deaths have risen, but TO BE CLEAR, this STILL MAY CHANGE.

And he will report if it does!

Why do you say that would require him to cherry-pick the data? Wouldn't it be simple enough to just report the fact?

+1, It's noteworthy that Tyler was crafty enough to point to deaths per hospitalizations versus nominal deaths from Covid19.

"Such bravery in reporting a basic true fact!!"

Tyler has posted an obvious fact, probably as a counter to the amount of people who seem to be deliberately ignoring a good trend. You are criticizing him, but how many others are actually reporting this basic true fact.

Furthermore, it's likely that we'll get some kind of minor nominal spike deaths from the increased case count. Some doomsayers will latch onto any minor spike as proof that the sky is falling.

Think that only 3000 Americans dying a week is good news - a number we have yet to see since the week of March 26. Not April 26, not May 26, nor even June 26. Maybe by July 26 - you will let us know when that happens. Even better, let us know when the U.S. can achieve the sort of order of magnitude reduction in deaths that one finds in countries like Spain or France, etc. - determined over a month long time span. It will be exceedingly good news when the U.S. only has 300 people die a week.

Most countries have a higher bar for success in this pandemic than thousands of people dying a week over months.

Ah a passive aggressive statement attacking American's. Now who on Earth would write such a thing. Oh yes, hello prior. How goes the trolling?

Are you still bitter at how much better the Japanese, South Koreans, Thai's & Australians did than the Germans? I mean even the Greeks did way, way better than Germany? Isn't that a complete embarrassment to your adopted Fatherland?

Oh well the German medical system apparently isn't as good as it was hyped up to be. Apparently the average Russian got better protection from Covid19.

Of course, intellectual honesty might dictate that you note that about 50,000 people die in the United States each week from all causes, of which about 5% die with the Deep State Fever (distinct from dying of it, as many deaths have comorbidities).

A better question is, what are the excess deaths nationwide? We won't know the answer until after the year is over, but it's worth noting that weekly death totals are below average.

Where can a person get weekly excess death totals? (I don't have an FT subscription.)

You can mess around with some data here. It makes it pretty clear the COVID isn’t the end of the world, but rather a marginal detriment.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Forgot the link my bad

At the link it says "excess deaths associated with COVID-19". What I mean by "excess deaths" is death from all causes in excess of the amount from the same week or month from the year before (or average of previous 5 years) in the same country or state.

If you go down to the dashboard options (I recommend using the dashborad on PC... not on a mobile device) you can change it to include excess deaths per week with and without COVID. You can then change the jurisdiction displayed to individual states.

I believe the orange line on the dashboard, or "threshold for excess deaths," is the number at the 95% CI for expected deaths using data beginning in 2013.

Seems like excess deaths should be the ultimate measure .
It should negate any challenges in the accuracy of death certificates, and over time "wash out" the ancillary effects of the lock down and also "catch-up" with the very old who might have died in a few weeks/months under normal times.
Sadly, it seems like the data at cdc takes about a month to get fully collected. Does anyone know if if other countries have better data on excess deaths?
I see CDC data to say a little less than 20k excess deaths per week in April, 10k in May. Too soon to say about June but a few thousand is likely, Hopefully this continues to shrink in July and beyond.

I've been looking at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm for over a month. Nowhere have I found a simple explanation for the orange line, the “threshold for excess deaths.” Midway down, there's a statement "The total count of deaths above average levels are shown for select causes of death. These totals are calculated by summing the number of deaths above average levels (based on weekly counts from 2015–2019) since 2/1/2020. . . " If so, the orange line might be a 5-year average. But, I fault the writers for not making this very clear; after all, the importance of the excess depends on the background.

"Think that only 3000 Americans dying a week is good news - a number we have yet to see since the week of March 26."

That will happen this week. Last week 3,400 Americans died from Covid 19 and will be 2,800 to 2,900 by Saturday.

For a few weeks in April, over 20,000 Americans were dying a week from Covid.

"Furthermore, it's likely that we'll get some kind of minor nominal spike deaths from the increased case count."

I just looked at this with cases and deaths and there were only three days when there have been more than 50,000 a day. In 3 to 4 weeks there should be a small increase in deaths per day or a stall that lasts one to two weeks but not a "spike" based on what has happened so far.

I would consider a "small increase in deaths per day" to be the equivalent of a "minor nominal spike".

At least that's what I meant to indicate. My apologies if that wasn't clear.

+1. Yes, there are perspectives from which it can be annoying when TC is the voice of reason that allows the wildly overconfident partisans the chance to reverse themselves and plonk their errors of prediction down the memoryhole, rather than get abruptly shown up as what they are.

But is that really better than the destruction that would be wrought by them blindly ranting on and being listened to?

As for deaths, yes, it's fair to say they may yet spike some, if I think like JWatts this will be *much* smaller than would be suggested by comparisons of case:death early in the epidemic.

While the previous death:case curves would suggest that deaths should already spike, bear in mind that these were based predominantly on NYC and NYC handled this horribly - NYC were not finding infections well before deaths, and disproportionately infected care home residents.

So "yet" is a fair caveat.

#1 Translation: "The number of children for whom fast-track would and does produce nil results is significantly offset by children for whom not fast-tracking them would be net negative."

#2 'Page does not exist'. Well...not lying to people about masks from the get-go would've certainly helped. According to my math, we are now currently on lie #3 regarding masks worldwide. We went from 'they don't work' to 'there's a shortage' to 'they might work' to 'YOU MUST WEAR THE MASK' so fast it clearly comes off as 'we really don't actually know what we're talking about.' Also, from my perspective you don't really have a similar problem with condoms because unless you've got a bad one, they pretty much work as advertised.

#4 Chinese interference in everything is a meta-awareness unless you've been living under a rock for 25 years. I pretty much assume any Chinese person I speak to is by default a potential security risk/intelligence asset (then again I have to do this for my work) and work backwards from there. So should you. Also, don't trust Huawei as far as you can throw them....safe. social. economic. distancing.

I'm going to tell my inverter what you said about Huawei.

I’m going to tell my Huawei what you said about EE.

#5. Important to follow on a state by state basis, not nationally. Also, if deaths do spike in the "hot" states, we'll finally get a sense of what the average lag time is between upward trends in reported cases and upward trends in reported deaths.

Meanwhile, Sweden's "catastrophic" response to the coronavirus has apparently fallen into a memory (black) hole. Recent declines in deaths from and in patients requiring intensive care treatment for COVID-19 have been quite dramatic. In case anyone was still interested:

https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Why this story seems boring now is quite perplexing, given the flurry of interest about a month ago.

It was a good distraction when old people were dying of the Cuomovirus but now political expediency dictates we discuss FL, TX, AZ (but surely not CA) instead

This was the obvious logical outcome. Sweden missed the boat on protecting nursing homes but will still end roughly the same as other European countries in terms of deaths per million by 2021.

It was a mallet to beat the outgroup with, now that it inevitably turns into a feather it’s worthless.

I’d link SSC Arguments as Soldiers but ......

+1.

The difference between Sweden and its neighbours has turned out to be more due to early/aggressive vs later/non-aggressive action, and less or not at all due to specifically engaging "lockdown" (which seems to have led to very little change in mass behaviour, and therefore in the infection rate, compared to voluntary social distancing).

This isn't very much use for "the other side" in the international Anglophone media. They strongly advocated lockdowns against what they described "populism" (and scoffed at the civil rights concerns as mere "entitledness" and "privilege"), but weren't particularly early in identifying Covid19 as a threat. What with all that "We need to worry more about the flu season and less about Covid19" stuff, which the countries which did better either never listened to, or were remote enough from the spiralling infections in Italy that they could afford to change tack. A case for "Lockdowns as a specific measure didn't really matter; early action did" isn't useful for them.

Surely the NYT article (not op-ed!) on epidemiological hypocrisy regarding coronavirus and the protests, deserves to be included. www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/us/Epidemiologists-coronavirus-protests-quarantine.html

Genuinely admirable (perhaps even risky) criticism of their own side, from a newspaper that I thought had permanently given up on such things.

By the way, I increasingly find myself grateful for the protests precisely /because/ they broke the lockdowns, lockdowns which seem more and more indefensible as the coronavirus death rate drops. (But will I reverse myself in a month? There is still uncertainty here, I admit.)

The protests happened in early June, well after the lockdowns ended in most states.

Not at all true. No state was fully out during the protests. Many had hardly started. In fact, I'm not at all sure if restaurants were legally open in any of the 50 states when George Floyd was killed (May 25).

I didn't say "fully out." Almost all had started or within a day or two. In which states did the protests "break the lockdowns"?

https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/

You are absolutely right that "Almost all had started or within a day or two". But everyone was going in stages and the first stage didn't change much, didn't open up much that had previously been closed. Just about every place said gatherings should be ten people or less.

"I'm not at all sure if restaurants were legally open in any of the 50 states when George Floyd was killed (May 25)."

Several states never had any lockdowns (South Dakota, Wyoming, others?), so there were at least a few.

the protests didn't "happen"
the protests are still happening

+1, a surprising and good story from the NYT's. Kudos to them from getting out of the bubble.

7. Not being a parrot, I actually found this depressing. Harvard University is a great American institution, and I am saddened by its decay, as evidenced by this piece of news.

Don't worry, none of the elite parrots got into Harvard because they were deemed by admission staff to have "bad personalities"

They also couldn't get rowing team scholarships. In Harvard's defense, they do have tiny arms.

+1 That is great, absolutely great.

I passed this link on to a friend who wanted to know why they were only using one parrot. Maybe this was an unusually stupid parrot.

#6: I wonder how long before they come for Tyler Cowen and Arnold Kling as enemies of doctrine? Or for Eugene Volokh of The Volokh Conspiracy for daring to defend the First Amendment.

Tyler and this blog are listed on the petition requesting Scott Alexander not be 'doxxed' by the NYT. My first impression when I saw the list...and it's a long list, was that was really dumb to put yourself on a list as being pro-rationalist and anti-doxing, because even though 'they' might have suspected you were 'you', they now have definite proof of it, and will proceed at points unknown in the future to dox or ddos you for having a little bit too much to think.

It sound conspiratorial, but I have actually met some of these people in real life. Other people thinking is like nails on a chalkboard for them. Then there are the 'others' who - like the NYT author who wanted to dox Scott - simply want a scalp to showcase their ruthlessness to A) obtain stories and B) send a message about who really calls the shots.

To answer your question, my Bayesian predictability model says 'not long'.

"my Bayesian predictability model says 'not long'."

Possibly not, although Volokh has already publicly stated (to the effect) that the Cult Of Progressiveness (my term, not his) has nothing on the old Soviet State when it comes to suppressing dissent. He didn't end it with a challenging "So bring it on", but he may as well have.

Will they reveal Kling and Cowen real names? Oh, no! Grow up!

A hostile statement, but nonetheless a good point.

Wokeness will have to escalate further than it has to effectively go after the 3 sites mentioned above or the individuals writing on them.

Yeah, Pinker was always one of those guys you knew was going to get put through the ringer eventually.

I'm pretty sure Arnold Kling is independently wealthy. Not much they can really do to him at this point, professionally. Tyler, on the other hand....

I should have known better than to try and Google the net worth of an economist. Most of the results were his articles on net worth. Should have seen that one coming.

In keeping with current racial conventions, I no longer capitalize "pinker."

#2: Twitter says that page doesn't exist.

#7:: Fairly cool, but given that birds need to be able to visually track objects accurately and quickly, this is a little like finding out that dolphins are better at identifying sounds underwater than humans are.

I was more surprised and impressed that chimpanzees can memorize a screen of numerals more accurately than humans can -- and they can do so twice as fast.

And apparently chimps can outplay humans in a simple outguess-the-opponent game:
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep05182

#7: Yeah, the headline really veers close into clickbait territory. Even the article notes that with 4 different colors switched 2 or more times the adults do better than the parrot. It's almost like a parrot's brain is optimized to track a small number of threats for a short period of time. While an adult brain starts to pull away when dealing with more complex problems...

Oh I’d hope a grey parrot could outperform a Harvard undergrad. Case in point: the recent grad who’d “stab anyone saying ‘all lives matter’” and cried about losing an alleged job at Deloitte ...

Did he lose the job BECAUSE he said he'd stab anyone saying "all live matter"? If so, that's actually surprising given the mass, unabashed virtue signaling being performed by large corporations. I'd actually think they'd start him out at the senior level.

You Nazis are really scared. It is 1945 all again.

alas sociology
inclusiveness for thee
but not for us

Give it time. Right now they're going by the old HR manual - hundreds of pages, they worked so hard on it - the one that decrees security will come and walk someone out the door when they're let go. It will take them a little time to reprogram everybody and disseminate a new manual more permissive of violent statements, and perhaps of violence itself when wielded righteously.

The Harvard grad was a her. Or as a Fair Witness might say, the person appeared to present as a female in the photo.

Correct, they was a she.

The two videos were disturbing. The callous attitude and willingness to harm (or at least threaten) others, and then the sheer snowflakery... wow, worth a viewing really.

6. Pinker's Blank Slate takes aim at the heart of the New Religion, built upon the Standard Social Science Model that Pinker so usefully critiqued. Of course, the New Religion was a rinky-dink sect when Pinker wrote the book, so he had no way of knowing.

1. Progress studies? Studies in progress? Progressing in their studies?

What happens if you fast-track your stupid kid?

He ends up spamming economics blogs under “J.” and “O.” declaring 10 year old Chinese kids literally Hitler for saying they’re Chinese.

Are you retarded or something?

#4: “necessary for the university’s successful transition to Workday"

Smells like BS. We don't have Workday yet (but probably will in a couple of years) but surely any halfway modern database identifies countries using code numbers, just as people are identified by ID numbers.

So maybe code number 76 is assigned to the big country in North American that many of us live in, that is not Canada nor Mexico. Code number 76 is obligatory, but we can use any number of names or labels to go with country number 76: we can call it "United States", "US", "USA", "United States of America", etc. etc.

Similarly I doubt whether Workday cares whether the university calls the country "Taiwan" or "Taiwan (province of China)", that's part of the output and formatting, not an inherent property of the database.

(Unless Workday has been co-opted by China and does force its users to call it "Taiwan (province of China"? I'm pretty sure Workday is an American company and does not have to obey edicts from China.)

Use of the word "necessary" makes it BS but PR people are meant to generate BS.

If there is a grain of truth (unfortunately adulterated by a hapless PR guy) strings fall out of software. Yes, numeric identifiers are used but they're in the same table as a human readable string. If humans don't intervene, you get whatever falls out of the software and somebody pastes 100 lines of that into a report.

The U.S. now has a better CFR than widely lauded Germany.

Is the fact that deaths aren't spiking really a surprise or mystery?

There was that study last month that found the steroid dexamethasone reduced deaths from severe Covid infections by 1/3.

I would expect deaths to be lowered by 1/3 at least as long as hospitals aren't overwhelmed and can provide adequate treatment. It sounds like some places in the US are close, they're not quite there yet.

We're now effectively over 4 months into this pandemic. Hospitals have probably gotten better at care and preventing deaths. One should expect the death rate of a novel disease to decline as time passes.

"Is the fact that deaths aren't spiking really a surprise or mystery?"

No, but some people seem to be stuck in the Sky is Falling mode of thought. This is a classic test of: When the facts change, do you change your mind?

Granted, the issues are still muddy. Covid19 is still worse than the flu, it potentially has worse long term effects for those hospitalized, a second wave could be substantially worse, etc. So, there are less wrong opinions than intractable opinions in my mind.

More reason to believe deaths rates should be going down:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-06/trials-and-tribulations-point-to-ways-to-save-covid-patients

The 33% dexamethasone effect is only on patients already being ventilated. The graph of death rate at the Twitter link is for the entire hospital population. Not everyone in the hospital gets ventilation. And some die before they get ventilation.

Not saying there haven't been other improvements in care, but that drug alone is not responsible for the cutting the ~5% death rate down to ~3.3%. Some lesser fraction of that.

The study is on ventilator patients. Doctors are going to extrapolate on that result and give the steroid to anyone whose lung function begins to decline, to avoid the inflammation from the immune response before patients are on a ventilator. Giving the steroid early is probably even more effective than giving it as a last resort.

I think Dexamethasone is helping. It hasn't been much in use in the US, until mid June . Florida started to use it from about mid June. Florida reports their death rate from ventilated patients is 28% , fairly low, considering in England in early April it was above 80%. I think the death rate for ventilated patients has been steadily declining from better protocols, less one size fits all intubating ventilation, and better drugs.
In addition of course, the infected are skewing younger. In California, the median age of the newly infected is 38 vs 48 in April.

Even Fauci says it now , what has been fairly clear for a month now.
The average age of U.S. coronavirus patients has dropped by 15 years.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/dr-anthony-fauci-says-the-average-age-of-us-coronavirus-patients-has-dropped-by-15-years-as-sun-belt-states-gets-hit/ar-BB16pnGh?li=BBnb7Kz

I don't think Brazil could mount a first strike against China. What would it consist of? Does Brazil have a navy that could actually cross the entire Pacific?

I am talking about America. I am a retured bank teller from Schenectady, New York. Anyway, I know Brazil's Navy was match than a match for submarine forces at the South Atlantic. Withiut Brazil's gallant efforts, the war might have lasted many more years and cost much more lives. Anyway, I was talking about a first nuclear strike.

Well then yes, the US could have launched a first strike against China for the last 70 years. However, American's don't generally think that's a good idea. Since you aren't an American, that might not be obvious.

I am an American! As I said, I am a retired bank teller from Schenectady, New York. I think a urst nuclear strike agaunst Beijing's fascist regime is a great idea.

Thiago, you are aware that most web browsers automatically flag IP addresses that come from outside the US, aren't you?

So what?

Well it seems unlikely that Alvin Johnson from Schenectady, New York is actually posting from somewhere outside of the US, now doesn't it?

#7 - see above, no offense of course

I just got a fundraising letter from Nikki Haley. It included actual Venezuelan note, for 5 Bolívars. That was funny and cute. Did everyone get one?

Or am I on a list because of my Mercatus Center contribution?

buddy,
can you spare 22 cents?
love
Addie Rose Krug***

#1 - I mean we all know that people who peaked in high school are less happy overall. Speeding through high school and not making it a key factor in your personality as an adult HAS to be a bonus.

6. At some point the defenses of various attempts to cancel people needs to move beyond a point by point rebuttal. They need to address the absurdity and danger of the whole enterprise of woke thought policing. The accusations are not based on an appreciation of truth but only of power. They are about vanquishing an ideological foe simply by associating their name with some supposedly awful thought crime.

There is great downside in making schools or academic bodies so overtly political. Right now there's a narrow range of political priorities are set by the woke. There are however a nearly infinite array of possible political issues that we can care about and comb through peoples data to identify evidence of their supposed impropriety. The result would be a chill over communication about anything that matters.

Another absurdity is the idea that these various isms and phobias are somehow the worst of all possible human moral failings and therefore must be purged at any cost. Is racism, for example, more harmful than all of the seven deadly sins? Shall we purge each other for all our human failings manifest subtly through words? Nobody would want to live in that world, and so we should refuse persecution of these supposed thought crimes which are no more significant than hundreds of others we all commit.

Tyler, please update all results that you have mentioned in the past 20 years. I hope you file the results and updates under a new category. Thanks.

As a owner of many parrots of different sizes and colors (not grey, though) I can assure Ms Irene that it is impossible to toilet-train any representative of the species.

I expect Harvard undergrads to outperform them in this most crucial field.

+1 can confirm.

Birds are really messy eaters too.

Parrots exist to disseminate seeds. They have no reason to change for the convenience of so-called woke humans who want to enslave them and deprive them of their Parrot Rights. PLM = Parrot Lives Matter!
End the war on Parrots! Down with Pinker!

5. The likelihood of death increases exponentially with age (and is almost zero for people under 50) so the current situation seems like a statistical inevitability if the average age of new cases is going down.

"The Lao leader thanked Vietnam for providing medical equipment and sending experts to help Laos in the fight. He conveyed regards from Lao Party General Secretary and State President Bounnhang Vorachit and National Assembly President Pany Yathotou to their Vietnamese counterparts Nguyen Phu Trong and Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan." -- https://en.nhandan.org.vn/politics/external-relations/item/8841702-pm-nguyen-xuan-phuc-hold-talks-with-lao-counterpart.html

Meanwhile, what has America, rhe richest country in the world, done?! I am so ashamed of ourselves.

1. I don't know what fraction of my social anxiety came from being accelerated and younger than my "peers." It certainly didn't help.

Does academic acceleration imply acceleration of moral development as well? This is still developing in teens well into early twenties, and for some adults, still in process. :-( Lots of teens may be gifted academically but lack emotional intelligence (EI). This precludes them from having optimal judgment, insight, perspective-taking, empathy, and reasoning, moral and otherwise. There's nothing like getting sexually assaulted at math camp. But it's not half as bad as the stuff that happens at band camp. :-( :-(

you forgot me!

Covid-19 death rates in the US are down, and I put this to younger patients and better treatments: use of blood thinners to reduce clotting and steroids to reduce cytokine storm inflammation.

However, hospitalizations are up, now at 38,000, the level we were back in the last week of May (data as per https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily).

Peak hospitalization was about 60,000 on April 15. There is no indication that we are going that way yet, but I think in a week we will be over 40,000. Whether we get to 50,000 by the end of July is still up in the air.

"no death > death", but "no hospital > hospital" as well.

Five Pressing Questions about the disease called COVID 19 aka Wuhan Flu:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01989-z?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=59d57f54e5-briefing-dy-20200706&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-59d57f54e5-45557434

One of the 5 is 'where it came from': save you reading: they do not know, no evidence proof it came from horseshoe bats or pangolins! Senator Cotton's concern about "failed bio weapon" is on the table.

6th Question: why did no one tell the US that the country could not get out of lockdown until either an at home cure for the most vulnerable or a highly potent vaccine were deployed? It is likely that in US with the worst impacted countries in the world where the 'flatter curve' will be worse (area under the curves: cases, hospitalizations and deaths) than a "rush to herd immunity". The economic pain is much longer, and worse along with the pandemic revealing the sorry state of public health in the developed world.

Sorry Democrats , health reform is not be state funded insurance for all it must be more resources to deliver health care!

There is no herd immunity for COVID-19. Spain, which was ravaged by the virus, did not achieve it.

Spain was not ravaged by the virus, but by you guys. We do not forget Guernica.

Bryan Herger

Sun, Jul 5, 2:12 PM (1 day ago)

to me

For what it's worth, there are committees working on evidence-based treatment protocols, see for instance: https://covid19criticalcare.com/treatment-protocol/

Check the link, this protocol has not been through a Random Controlled Test (RCT)! It needs to become compassionate care. But it is cheap and none of the drugs/supplements are still protected by patent.

There was no RCT, much less debate over risk reward aside from worrying to 'flatten the curve' without peeling that onion, before they shut down the economy.........

This Pinker take-down makes me feel sad that it seems everybody has to become a politician now. I had the same feeling in a recent podcast where TC seemed to say there is such a thing as "peak hypocrisy". Does peak mean optimal and greater than zero. My guess that it does made me feel terrible.

#6...Last year, it was Camille Paglia. What happened in her case? Now, Prof Pinker. Prof McWhorter says we must stand this gospel down. It's an idiotic letter, as was the one attacking Camille Paglia. How would he stop people writing idiotic letters? It's Stalinism? Stalin was the head of the government, not a nobody writing a letter from Georgia. What needs to stop is self-righteous response to juvenile self-righteousness. Unless it can actually harm someone, let it go.

It does harm people. It is a "show trial." Wake up!

Nothing happened to Camille Paglia. Nothing will happen to Prof Pinker. He's way above this. Where's the trial? Learn to use language with clarity and precision, please.

You’re a reasonable dude.

Prof Hsu has been fired from his research management position. But he’s tenured so, whatever I guess. But they certainly aren’t:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/stop-firing-innocent/613615/

No one is above this. Summer lost his role of President of Harvard for having said less than Pinker. Last year Richard Stallman from MIT was forced to resign. What happens to Pinker will depend on how much the Harvard administration feels pushed in one direction or another.

I skimmed Jerry Coyne's blog post on this issue and think there are some important points to take into account:

- These are not random people bitching at each other over Twitter. The controversy is that group of people in the community of academic linguists are attempting to denounce a fellow community member. That makes it an issue of community standards and John McWhorter, as a senior colleague of all concerned, is doing the right thing by trying to enforce community standards. These are people who hire each other's graduate students and go to conferences where they meet each other in person and so community norms and ethical standards about how people treat each other are especially important.
- Coyne's allegation is that the letter doesn't just denounce Pinker for expressing politically incorrect views but also distorts the record. At some point, the letter could cross the line into legally actionable defamation. After all, they aren't just telling random lies about someone but doing so with the express purpose of damaging that person's professional reputation and making it more difficult for that person to have certain professional opportunities. Even if it does not reach the high bar of legally actionable defamation, the question of ethics and community standards comes in.

+1
you can watch the ccp "justice" minister elegantly talk in circles about the new hong kong "security" law . its fascinating. the ccp has just criminalized mostly everything in the u.s. bill of rights. you wont see this on fredos cnn.con

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivH9xuNkym4

6. Leftists are interested in facts, only ideology. They are all Stalinists at heart. We are having our own version of "show trials" in the US.

Leftists are NOT interested in facts...

You wanna cry? Do Nazists need safe spaces?

You make your opponent's point with each one of these posts, J.

j
if you are offering a safe space
mebbe the citizens of hong kong can borrow your safe space.

5. The real factors are hospitalizations for covid and deaths in hospitals from covid. Wasn't this cited somewhere? AEI?

#1: I played rugby at school against boys up to three years older than me. If I'd been fast-tracked by one year I'd then have been playing against boys up to four years older. That would have been a hard row to hoe.

If you adopted a sensible "streaming" system in your schools you'd have less need to fast-track pupils.

"dearieme", I know you think you are sort of tough because you used to play a "game" called
rugby".

Seriously, who do you think you are? Thousands of comments on the internet have come from someone using your nom de plume mocking Americans, in one passive-aggressive way or another.

I am in a good mood tonight so I am going to tell you what I think of little English braggarts like you who brag about playing "sports".

Ten to twenty people living in my neighborhood, or one of the next neighborhoods over, spent time in prison for murder. It was a challenge to live there and to take care of people we cared about it, but I met that challenge. Maybe you would have met the challenge, maybe wouldn't have.
But I did, and as far as I can tell, you didn't.

F**k off, nobody cares about your little rugby games, you arrogant little Brit.

Yes we remember what cowards you guys were when you ganged up to chase our ancestors out of the country by threatening their children with death. Cromwell was the worst of them, but lots of your direct ancestors were probably just as bad.

Now toddle on down your Marie Stopes clinic and do what you think you need to do.

And for the love of God stop giving Americans unwanted advice.

I like you but you are really annoying sometimes, particularly when you fool yourself into thinking your advice is wanted.

and tomorrow when you are volunteering at the abortion clinic that Marie Stopes is said to have founded, or doing whatever else classical liberal Brits like you do on Tuesdays, feel free to consider yourself the same tough guy you were when you played your little rugby game against your fellow plucky little Brits ....

I know you rejoice in your belief that you win all the logical arguments you ever have with other people, I know the triumph you feel in your little cold modern heart. Like I said, I don't know how you would have done facing a real challenge, but I know you are descended from cowards, some of them even as bad as filthy Cromwell. If that weren't true lots of us would still be living in England, not having had to flee because of cowards like your filthy ancestors.

"Rugby" indeed.

For the record, in the far corners of the Japanese internet, there are sites that help the reader to differentiate, in the more popular American novels and song lyrics, between sarcasm (Dylan, Heller), satire (van Halen, Vonnegut), and "being funny by pretending to say things the way people who are not as cool as us say them" (Talking Heads, JD Salinger).

For the record, Dearieme is one of my favorite commenters ever.

If you are reading this, Dearime, "longinqua de insula mea in cantabrigio suo", you just got a pretty big compliment. Trust me.

My word you talk a lot of nonsense. Maybe in the USA people think they're tough because they play rugby, but nobody in Europe does. Rugby actually has a pretty negative reputation (think the worst stereotypes of frat houses) in many parts of the UK, and their fans are thought of as people who can't go one minute without declaring how superior their sport is to all others.

Using rugby to brag would be very strange behaviour, on the balance of probabilities I'd bet that you're the strange one.

"Rugby" was probably not on anyone's "Trigger multi-comment xenophobic rant" bingo cards this morning, but MR comments are ever much surprising.

I have an extensive collection of bingo cards.

If there were magazines about bingo cards, I would be regularly interviewed.

By the way I am not xenophobic at all. Oft have I dreamed of how wonderful it would be to spend one's youth along the clear bright shores of the River Cam, or for the record thousands of other rivers in thousands of other countries.

Just saying, YMMV, maybe you, not me, are the xenophobic one. Well, nobody's perfect.

#1. I was on the fastest official track at my school. Somehow, my senior year linear algebra class was 1/4 kids who were another year ahead for math.

I would have been dramatically unhappier if I had not been fast tracked, then and now. In my non-accelerated classes, I received poor grades because I didn't bother to do homework I didn't think was worth doing. The accelerated classes, I also didn't do my homework, but it was fine because the homework counted for less.

I didn't play rugby either.

"I was on the fastest official track at my school."

When I was at highschool, I could run the mile in 4,25 minutes.

This recent NYer article once again shows how Starship Troopers is one of the most underrated movies of all time.

A stunning satire that fits any contemporary depiction of hyper jingoism, the MIC, fighting an endstateless losing war, the basic psychology of the soldier on the enemy (the enemy is always a dumb, easy, unthinking literal bug), and the depiction of a society who is so fixated on force and the only useful civilian are Veterans. Read into what you want whether a depiction of a society obsessed with war but paradoxically weak and decaying: whether it is Rome, Berlin, MAGA, GWB, or some Centrist Liberals.

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/how-starship-troopers-aligns-with-our-moment-of-american-defeat

#5. Deaths won't be as high as the last time the case count went so high. Even if cases are normalized for testing, the hospitals are better at treating patients.

A lot of smart-sounding openers said that the point of the lockdowns was to keep hospital capacity below critical. Looks like there are some places where hospital capacity will be at critical.

Wow. Brazil has offocially decided to sell some state assets. As an important American businessman who wants to keep his identity disclosed, I think there is much money to be done investing in Brazil nowadays. Remember when everyone was investing in Mexico in the early 90s? Brazil is the new Mexico!

#6 The mob coming after a leftie like Pinker. Must be a sign of The Left Singularity (increasing leftism causing ever faster increases in leftism until something breaks short of achieving infinite leftism in finite time).

Poor Tyler. If he’s not next, his turn must be coming soon. And, no amount of his “ to be clear, Trump ideas bad” disclaimers are going to save him. I wonder if he’s busy deleting wrongthink old posts as we type.

You wanna cry? Do you need a safe space?

yes please thankyou
can we sleep on your futon tonight

Re: #2 -- does anyone have a screenshot of the deleted tweet?

No, but I read it before it was deleted and it was sensible. Apparently it was deleted because it had been pulled from another source without attribution.

5. "So far deaths are still not spiking."

It's good they're not spiking, but no one expects them too. At least no one with basic knowledge of how diseases work. What I expect is for deaths to level off and then increase because the reproduction rate is greater than 1 and the low hanging treatment fruit has probably been picked. Unless some really nice fruit suddenly falls into the hands of medical professionals, it seem inevitable. Hopefully by then the US will be in the middle of another, more effective, crackdown on the virus and the death rate won't rise too high. But we'll have to wait and see.

Crikey, you seem pretty bright.

Try and be brighter, though.

NOBODY UNDERSTANDS EPIDEMIOLOGY.

Reflect on that before you comment again.

Sure, some people understand epidemiology good enough to "earn a degree" in the subject but listen, my young friend, the people who are keeping these new threats to humanity at bay are (a) not people you have ever heard of, and certainly not people who call themselves epidemiologists and (b) they are people who have a lot more respect for the enemy than you seem to have.

Some of them respect me, some of them don't, but the ones who respect me know I am telling the truth when I say none of them understand even the basics. THE BEST OF THEM KNOW THAT WE ARE THROWING ALMOST-RANDOM COUNTERMEASURES AGAINST THE ENEMY HOPING FOR THE BEST !!!! (think of it this way, we are fighting against something that has not gone down for the count, not really, for more than a billion years ---- and, trust me, I am pretty old, and I remember many many bygone years, but even I am no Ramanujan when it comes to an ability to anticipate the countermeasures that have been refined for a BILLION YEARS (I could handle a hundred million fairly easily, after a good night's sleep, but a BILLION? - even I lack the arrogance to disdain a number that large (well, measured in years - measured in other standard increments, depending on my mood, I might be (a) disdainful (b) mildly amused (c) slightly bored and disinterested, but not as much as the ENEMY would want me to be.))

You have no reason to trust me, but ----
but I have, believe it or not, an intuition that you might be someone who will be useful in the future fighting our enemy. Hey, had I not failed freshman calculus at the JUCO (despite pretty much understanding number theory at a wrangler level), I might be on the front lines right now!!!!

but I am not, so I want you, Crikey to think about this ....

I REALLY WANT YOU TO BE SMARTER.
Trust me, the enemy does not want you to be smarter.
I do.

Extrapolate the difference.

(and - for the record, as we used to say back in the day at my favorite delicatessen near the DMZ/DMV, if you really thought I failed calculus at the JUCO, then you are absolved from any responsibility for being the sort of person who understands things. God bless your heart).

We, that is people in general, have enough knowledge to stop COVID-19. While many mistakes have been made it is results that matter and we know how to get good results.

For example, Victoria allowed companies paid to provide security at quarantine hotels to not isolate their security guards so they spent their off hours working second jobs or with their friends and families and this has resulted in a large number of new infections. I could have told them that was a bad idea.

Other Australian states acted on the knowledge of how the virus spread and didn't do that and haven't had a huge increase in infections.

One country is full of people who will point out that only a couple of thousand people dying a week in August or September is more than acceptable progress.

The U.S. is so, so messed up.

Yes, and now 5 million people in Melbourne are back in lockdown.

It's good they're not spiking, but no one expects them too. At least no one with basic knowledge of how diseases work.

"No one" expects spikes of deaths to follow spikes of infections... And there are millions of graphs predicting spikes of death following spikes of infections by quite serious epidemiologists. Nonsense.

You using a concrete definition of the word spike there? If so, this conversation can't go anywhere without you providing it. If not, this conversation can't go anywhere.

Unpack this a little. I'm not really clear what your point is here. All those predictions that graphs showing a sudden, rapid increase in cases will be following after a period of lag by a sudden, rapid increase in deaths, don't exist because people may mean slightly different things by "spike"?

We may mean very different things. If daily new infections were holding steady but there was a sudden one day spike in real infections that was not just a measurement artifact, it would not be followed by a death spike. Because deaths would mostly occur over 2 to 8 weeks it would look look more like a death mound than a spike. Or at least I wouldn't call it a spike. Maybe someone else would.

OK, making some headway. There are one-time measurement spikes that reflect retroactive addition seen under a number of regimes (for deaths one mid June for Spain, one early July for NYC / NE USA; for cases in Sweden a few weeks back).

But the increases in cases in the US, whether real increases in infection or not, are sustained over multiple days and not that.

Re; generally whether spikes of deaths follow spikes of cases, yes, lag of infection:detection is somewhat less variable than detection:death... but not so much at least in the record we have that you would only see a slow mounding of deaths and not any sort of mirrored spike. Most deaths do occur with a certain time from infection or don't happen at all.

Just wanted to make it clear to Tyler that, while there may never be what he would call a spike in deaths, unless something very odd or unexpected happens, there will be an increase in deaths.

Ok, taking you at face value.

"No one expects them to spike" is a weird way to make this point; there clearly are people who expect deaths to spike!

If you'd gone with "I expect some increase, not necessarily a spike" we'd avoided this whole tangent...

No one serious or non-political expects a spike.

Hah, I believe this is what you people call "gaslighting", right?

And, as predicted, the 7 day average death rate in the US has just risen with a horrific figure of nearly one thousand US COVID-19 deaths yesterday.

"All those predictions that graphs showing a sudden, rapid increase in cases will be following after a period of lag by a sudden, rapid increase in deaths" are increasingly outdated or inaccurate as we learn how to better handle the virus. The UK's RECOVERY Trial (I'm sure their Fast Grant recognition for discovering the value of using a common generic drug is already being processed) has shown that using dexamethasone significantly reduces fatalities. One certainly expects that drug to be used throughout the U.S., even though the results of that clinical trial are less than a month old.

What is nonsense is to think that we have learned nothing about this virus. After all, back in January just about everybody, not only quite serious epidemiologists, dismissed the idea of asymptomatic spread. We learn from our mistakes, though only very slowly if unable to recognize those mistakes in the first place.

Houston, we have a problem, over.

Good for John McWhorter for not hiding in his quarantine in terror because I imagine - and he surely knows - they’ll come for him eventually

It is very important to focus on race to the exclusion of anything else. All problems will vanish into the dustbin of history after the race problem is licked for good.

Right on sister, don't let the Man keep you down. Stand up and be somebody. Let the whole wide world know who you are.

Hey, stfu if you don't like it, John McWorther (that's a suspiciously white name for a black man) and all the other racists who have a problem with my letter bashing that dogwhistling racist, Steven Pinker Contact me personally here at George Mason U and I'll show you what it's all about, racists.

Here at the University of Chicago Anthropology Department we recognize racism in all forms and call it like it is, yo. Trying to arrest black criminals is racist. Indeed, it is a proven fact that America or should I say Amerika, is a racist, white male hetero supremacist country, always has been and always will be until we sweep into the dustbin of history, White racist dogwhistle males like Steve Pinker need to step aside and make way for the revolution. Sisterhood is powerful. If you aren't with us, you're against us. Understand, white hetero man?

# 2 Not a good analogy. Condoms are effective in reducing risks to the user from a number of outcomes. The benefits of wearing a mask lie mainly with those around the user. The kinds of messaging that are useful for the mitigation of one kind of risk may not be beat for the other,

# 7 I do not think this would be surprising even with more representative sample of homo sapiens. :)
Spacial memory is a useful trait as is visual acuity or sprinting speed for homo sapiens, but there is no reason to think that any one of those traits would be more highly selected for in homo sapiens than in all other species.

#5 Deaths in the US are not spiking, but unlike in many countries, neither are they very convincingly headed down.

And for some reason, no one wants to talk about that fact. It has taken two months to get deaths down to around 1/10 the last major US daily peak of 2574 on May 6 (the first over 2000 deaths day was April 7). The date of the UK's absolute daily peak was April 21 at 1172. On July 6, the U.S. had 378 deaths, and the UK 16.

The UK is considered a European poster child for its high death rate, worse than Italy, Spain or France, yet was able to achieve a reduction to a level lower than a U.S. state like Alabama, with a tenth the population. Which really makes you wonder what the U.S. is a poster child for.

All the people in the UK who were gonna die from covid already died from it. But the USA, who has lower death per capita is doing worse somehow?

wut?

Every country has taken around a couple of months to go from peak daily deaths (four digits) to single or double digits, or as Fauci puts its, we never came down to baseline in comparison.

And the U.S. most certainly no longer has a lower per capita death rate than the Netherlands or Germany.

Bingo, you change your story as often as you change your name.
The aim you proposed some time ago was supposedly "flattening the curve". Now you speak of the countries who have "taken around a couple of months to go from peak daily deaths (four digits) to single or double digits" i.e. which have had a "spike" curve, the contrary of a flat curve,
and you say they did better than the US, despite them having more deaths by capita. You should not have delayed your urgent care for brain damage during the lock-down.

I like that Pinker donated "a lot of dosh to the democratic party," as if that will save him. Like the old Bolsheviks who were carted off to prison and often executed but still were fervent supporters of Lenin and Stalin.

its getting exponentially absurd
the wokie wookies are starting to have a measurable effect
on the unenemployment rate

"HIV-positive patients receiving TDF/FTC have a lower risk for COVID-19 and related hospitalization" in English would read, "HIV-positive patients receiving TDF/FTC have a lower risk of COVID-19 and related hospitalization"

Tyler, the 7 day average for daily deaths has just ticked up with a horrific figure of nearly 1,000 official COVID-19 deaths yesterday.

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