Monday assorted links
2. Vitalik year end notes from Singapore. Outside of crypto, Vitalik is perhaps the most underrated thinker, period.
3. What the Brexit trade deal does.
4. Megan McArdle on dangerous group think in the public health establishment: “…the discussion of whether to prioritize essential workers was anything but robust. The committee left only 10 minutes for it, during which not one of those 14 intelligent and dedicated health professionals suggested adopting the plan that kills the fewest people. Nor did anyone run out of time to make that point. Ten minutes was actually a little too much for what turned out to be a pro forma opportunity to get on the record endorsing the plan, and particularly its emphasis on racial and economic equity in health care.”
5. “…I assign a 90% probability to at least one of the new variants being >30% more transmissible“