How bad is the Ukraine war going to be?

The bottom 50 percent of wars have an average of about 2,900 battle deaths, while the top 50 percent have an average of 653,000, and it is effectively a coin-flip which half any given war will end up in. In Ukraine, after three months and with no end in sight, Western analysts estimate at least 20,000 fatalities, putting this war well into the top half of conflicts…

In the deadlier half of wars, 10 percent have over a million battle deaths — what is stopping the Ukraine conflict from reaching that number?

Here is more from WarontheRocks.  And here is much from Paul Poast, starting with:

The…war could become one of the largest wars — measured in terms of fatalities — in history.

Here is a visualization of the war — who do you think is winning?

Via Edmund Levin.