Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat by the end of 2023?

This prediction is from Manifold Markets. Metaculus gives similar odds to a similar question. These are serious predictions.

In a 2019 post I pointed out that expert surveys (not markets) suggested the annualized probability of a nuclear war was on the order of  ~1%–and I thought that was worryingly high. We are now at ten times that level. This is very, very bad.


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