On the five-year breakeven rate (from the comments)

The market for TIPS isn’t deep enough for the market-implied breakeven rates to be a reliable signal. Making a sizable bet on future inflation rates requires leverage, and there aren’t exchange-traded TIPS futures to provide that leverage. Hedge funds that want to make this trade will instead enter an inflation swap contract with a bank. That activity only ends up being reflected in market-implied breakevens to the extent that the bank hedges by buying or selling TIPS in the swap market. This is atypical – the bank would hedge much if its exposure by entering offsetting swap contracts with other counterparties.

A real measurement of market expectations for inflation would need to include those swap transactions. The TIPS spot market is a biased and somewhat price-insensitive corner of the market, driven by buyers like target date funds that have a mandate to have an X% allocation to TIPS.

That is from an Alex in the comments.


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