What game theory predicts

In most of the equilibria I can conceive, either Prighozin or Putin has to die in the next week or less? Putin has to die if he can’t take out Prighozin promptly?

Game theory is often wrong, but it is worth putting this prediction out there.  And here is Kamil Galeev on the most likely equilibrium, I tend to agree with him:

What is happening in Russia?

The mutiny is real. It is also unlikely to succeed. Most probable outcome is:

1. The mutiny fails
2. The regime stands (for a few months)
3. Upon its suppression, regime becomes increasingly dysfunctional -> falls

In other words, Kornilov putsch🧵 pic.twitter.com/ahczgDqBOW

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) June 24, 2023