Friday assorted links

1. Insightful Bob McGrew tweet on GPT 4.5.  And Andrej.  My remark from a group chat: “I am more positive on 4.5 than almost anyone else I have read. I view it as a model that attempts to improve on the dimension of aesthetics only. As we know from Kant’s third Critique, that is about the hardest achievement possible. I think once combined with “reasoning” it will be amazing. Think of this as just one input in a nearly fixed proportions production function.”

2. “Women are not more Leftist, per se. Rather, the specific variety of Leftism that is currently riding high is extremely well suited to feminine preferences.”

3. Hot hand in Jeopardy betting?

4. “We’re seeing an AI boom on Stripe.”

5. The pandemic drove a dating recession.

6. Kalshi up to 357k federal employee cuts in this year.

7. “The release of beavers into English waterways is to be allowed for the first time in centuries, the Guardian can reveal.“