Guatemala vs. El Salvador

Guatemala has a slight edge on GNP per capita, according to World Bank sources $5762 vs. $5391, noting the gap has grown a bit since these 2023 measurements.

When I visited El Salvador, people spoke enviously of the economy of Guatemala.  Over the last twenty-two years, the gdp growth rate in Guatemala has averaged 3.5%, and the country still is growing in that range.  El Salvador recently was growing at 3.18%, but historically has had much lower growth rates.

Guatemala, with over eighteen million people, has greater scale.  El Salvador has somewhat over six million people.  Guatemala is above replacement rates with its TFR at 2.3, El Salvador is below replacement at 1.7.  Both countries lose people to the United States.

By most measures, Guatemala has a better economy than El Salvador, albeit to a modest degree.  You would put both countries at the same general level of economic development.  Overall democracy is in better shape in Guatemala.

One hears much more about El Salvador these days, partly for “culture war” reasons.  But putting aside Panama, it is Guatemala that has to count as the relative economic success story of Central America.  There is room for plenty more progress, but this is by no means a hopeless situation.