German political parties remain too far from the median voter

Our estimates indicate that the AfD’s vote share would shrink by as much as 75% if the CDU adopted its immigration stance. These results suggest that the electoral success of populist parties is strongly linked to genuine policy preferences, rather than being driven solely by dissatisfaction with political elites or protest voting.

That is from a new paper (or try this link) by Laurenz Guenther and Salvatore Nunnari.  A simple observation, and you may or may not like these voter attitudes, but it is the first point European elites need to recognize before they can climb out of their current political mess.