From the Forecasting Research Institute

When will AI forecasters match top human forecasters at predicting the future? In a recent @cowenconvos podcast episode, @NateSilver538  said 10–15 years while @tylercowen predicted 1–2 years. Who was right? Our updated AI forecasting benchmark, ForecastBench, suggests that Tyler Cowen is more likely to be right.

Here is the tweet, here is the associated Substack.  Phil Tetlock informs me their best guess is probably sometime in 2026.