Prediction markets paragraphs to ponder

The oracle is an elaborate Web 3.0 contraption that combines cryptocurrency, voting and game theory in its goal to produce fair judgments. It’s billed by its creators, a company based in Manhattan called Risk Labs, as a “decentralized truth machine.”

But for all its brainiac complexity, the oracle has proved exploitable. Dozens of livid bettors claim the system has been gamed, the handiwork of a budding tech entrepreneur named Lancelot Chardonnet (his name at birth, he says). A look at the Donk debate, which unfolded over nine rancorous days, illustrates how he did it, and the messy, fractious challenge of divining something as nuanced as truth.

When the Bucharest video was first broadcast on April 11, nobody heard “Donk,” and this bet seemed destined to be won by those who bet “no.” Then someone noticed that the caster, who through sheer phonetic coincidence is known as Dinko, had botched “don’t.”

Dinko might have known about the Donk bet, so it’s at least possible that he said the fateful syllable on purpose. It’s even possible he placed money on the outcome. He might have made what linguistics fans would call a voiceless velar stop slip.

Here is more from the NYT.