Category: Philosophy
The Methodology of Positive Economics
I’ve never read Milton as a naive positivist, although some of the quotations from his article sound that way. Milton was more of a methodological pluralist and a Marshallian. Do what works.
Bring a variety of kinds of evidence to bear on a problem (it is sad
how neglected this principle is in modern economics), be pragmatic, and
don’t reject a model just because it doesn’t meet one of your
prejudices. I think that is what he meant by not judging a model by
its assumptions. Falsifiability is a chimera, but did Friedman really
seek or advocate that as a standard? Most of all he wanted propositions with empirical content. He understood that no single fact can refute a theory, and that many tests are of frameworks, not single propositions. Data should and indeed must be viewed through the lens of theory, and our goal should be to solve problems.
Was Milton closer to Quine than to Carnap? Here is his classic essay.
Moral Wiggle Room
If Bob and Alice prefer vanilla to chocolate ice cream then when given the choice we wouldn’t be surprised to see each of them choosing vanilla. Now suppose that Bob and Alice are given the following choice, if either chooses vanilla they both get vanilla only if both choose chocolate do they receive chocolate. If Bob and Alice prefer vanilla to chocolate it seems plausible that they will continue to choose vanilla. But suppose that we observe Bob and Alice choosing chocolate in the second experiment. How might we explain this?
Imagine that chocolate is considered sinful and vanilla is thought to be nice. Bob and Alice might want to be sinful but they choose nice in the first experiment to avoid social condemnation. In the second experiment, however, Bob and Alice are sinful only when both sin. True preferences are revealed only when no individual can be singled out for condemnation.
That’s the setup of one of the clever experiments in an excellent new paper, Exploiting Moral Wiggle Room, except the experiment isn’t about chocolate and vanilla ice cream it’s about fairness in a division game. In the first experiment Alice and Bob must each decide whether to choose $6 for themselves and $1 for a third party (Cindy) or $5 for themselves and $5 for Cindy. In this experiment most Alice and Bobs choose to be nice, they divide "fairly" with Cindy. Many researchers have concluded that Alice and Bob must have a preference for niceness.
But put Alice and Bob together in the second experiment and Alice and Bob are each much more likely to choose the sinful division, $6 and $1. Alice and Bob may prefer chocolate after all.
Read the paper for several other experiments along these lines. The implications for societal organization are profound.
Hat tip to Robin Hanson.
Joycean blogging
This paper, via Jorge, argues that a credit crunch, and an increase in contract non-enforceability, are major reasons why NAFTA did not benefit Mexico more. Each Beck album takes a longer time to appreciate than the last one; I’m finally coming around on The Information. Here is a further smackdown on the TV-autism study. Panama has voted to expand the Canal; after the Grand Canyon and Iguassu, it is the most impressive sight I have seen. Go. A New York Times article notes that Portuguese has 230 million speakers, far more than German or Japanese; yet it is still considered a minor language. Will Wilkinson, who has been busy lately, has a good post on positive-sum status games. The Wall Street Journal had a front page article today on the trend to pull the elderly out of nursing homes and pay their relatives, or in some cases their ex-wives, to care for them. The Business of Health and The Cure: How Capitalism Can Save American Health Care are two new market-oriented books on American health care; the latter has a blurb from Milton Friedman. Chutes and Ladders examines the upward mobility of (some of) the working poor; buy it here. Starbucks succeeds by helping customers feel good about themselves.
Guilt
She gets mad at me for things she dreams I do.
That is from Justin, via Sacramento. A few weeks ago Alex and I were discussing whether a person should feel guilty about his or her dreams. Or should enjoying one’s memories of others give grounds for jealousy? How about building a machine which will simulate a version of you who dreams of having enjoyed particular memories?
Frankly, I don’t see any clear ground here.
Philosophical journeys
As a young teen I wanted to start with all of Plato’s Dialogues (yes including Parmenides, which I loved, but I didn’t finish The Laws) plus the major works of modern philosophy. I used the old John Hospers text to identify Descartes, Leibniz, Spinoza, Hobbes, Locke, Berkeley, Hume, and Kant. I read some Aristotle too, although he bored me. Then I read lots of Karl Popper and Brand Blanshard, the old-fashioned defender of rationalism and critic of positivism. I gobbled up George Smith and Antony Flew on atheism. I was influenced by Ayn Rand’s moral defense of capitalism, though I was never impressed by her as a philosopher.
Much later I read Nozick, Rawls, and Parfit. Parfit made by far the biggest impression on me. The other two, however smart, seemed predictable.
In graduate school I read Quine avidly. George Romanos’s book on Quine I found more useful than any single Quine work, although Word and Object and the essay on "Two Dogmas of Empiricism" are the places to start. Quine remains a major influence, including on how I think about blog posts. Which thicket of assumptions might lead one to a possible conclusion? I took a class on philosophy of language with Hilary Putnam and developed interests in Kripke and others, but they never displaced Quine in my affections. I developed a fondness for William James. From Rorty I saw more value in the Continentals, although I prefer to misread them. I flirted with the early German romantics and their rejection of philosophy, at times mediated through J.S. Mill.
Later experience with Liberty Fund interested me in "deep" readings of Montesquieu, Tocqueville, Maimonides, and some of the other "Straussian" texts. I’ve never been a Straussian, though. I’ve made attempts to understand Heidegger but without any success.
Right now the philosophy journals I read are Ethics and Philosophy and Public Affairs. When it comes to metaphysics, mind-body problems, and the like, I prefer books, usually of a semi-popular nature. The academic debates on these topics are too rarified to interest me very much.
That is my path, in a nutshell. I don’t pretend it is an optimal sequence for others.
The bottom line: I have learned to focus on the philosophy which clicked with me at the time. The rest was just so much blah blah blah. Philosophy books are more like self-help tomes, or fun record albums, than they let on.
Any suggestions for how our reader should choose a path?
What do we have reason to be uncertain about?
I can understand not wanting kids. I can understand wanting kids. What I cannot understand is not knowing whether you want kids. Having kids and not having kids are not alike. Not even close. The choices are not remotely equivalent. How do you answer the question with “Eh. You know, whichever.” How do you not know?
Here is more explanation, and here is a follow-up post, both from my current favorite theorist of rational choice. From another direction, the newly unattached Jacqueline Passey is unsure where to live, yet she is sure about not wanting children.
I find it easier to be certain when comparing two similar items or courses of action. I am sure that I prefer the Beatles to The Rolling Stones. Both are British popular music groups from roughly the same period of time. It is tougher to rank Charlie Parker relative to Dvorak. I reluctantly opt for Parker.
Some uncertainty about children may stem from the difference between ex ante and ex post preferences. You’re very happy having the kid when he or she comes but you did not care about that particular kid "in advance." Some of the "uncertainty" therefore is faux; it represents a confusion about which perspective to report.
Then there is the margin. How many kids should you have? I doubt if anyone is, ex ante, certain about this, although a few people may pretend to be ("Three is the number for me."). But one extra kid is a huge, huge difference at the margin, especially if you are moving from one kid to two (or so I hear). So it must be allowed that we can be uncertain about very drastic changes in our lives.
Most fundamentally, are indeed many people uncertain about having kids? How might we define such uncertainty? Surely we cannot trust our self-deceiving subjects to report their true intentions. Medical issues and "finding a mate" issues aside, for most of us isn’t it "in the cards" whether we will have kids, no matter how much we hem and haw in advance? (What is the function of the feigned uncertainty? Does it make the later decision "easier to live with" if we first pretend to put up a fight? Do we create an illusion of autonomy to feel in control?) Would small changes in our lives lead to big changes in the outcome here? I wonder.
What is personal uncertainty anyway?
Most of all, I am uncertain what we have reason to be uncertain about.
Climbing the Mountain
Here is Derek Parfit’s new book manuscript, on-line. Thanks to Robin Hanson for the pointer.
Addendum: Parfit’s 1984 Reasons and Persons remains my favorite contemporary work in moral philosophy. He is also the most important thinker on social choice paradoxes since Kenneth Arrow. Since that time Parfit has been working on multiple volumes on the major problems of philosophy. Many people who have seen advance drafts of Climbing the Mountain claim to be disappointed. I will read it soon.
Nozick’s experience machine
Robert Nozick, in Anarchy, State and Utopia, offers an interesting hypothetical; I don’t have a copy of the book ready to hand so will give you my version:
Someone invents an experience machine; get into it and you will have a fully convincing illusion of experience. Somehow, the inventor figures out about what your life is going to be like and makes you the following offer:
Get into my experience machine, spend the rest of your life there, and I will give you the illusion of a life slightly better than the one you would otherwise live. Your average income in the illusion will be a few thousand dollars higher than it would have been in reality, your wife a little prettier, your children slightly better behaved, your promotions just a little prompter. Your illusory summers won’t be quite as hot, or winters quite as cold.
As I (and Wikipedia) remember the thought experiment, your life [sic] is much better, a bit like the Hollywood movie of your choice, at the very least.
This thought question is supposed to refute utilitarianism, or at least its hedonistic version. Pleasure isn’t everything, and authenticity counts too.
But for an economist, Friedman is oddly non-interested in the marginal questions. At what age should you opt for the experience machine? If it can give you eighty more years of subjectively perceived time on your deathbed, that is a no-brainer. At what per capita income level should you prefer the machine?
Or say you don’t want the machine, but your acceptance will save five other people’s lives. Would you proceed without guilt? And how many lives should be needed to push you over the edge?
Is the experience machine example so compelling as a refutation of hedonism? I think it puts pleasure squarely on the map as one value which matters and which is even undervalued in many circumstances. Many of us are too reluctant to step into the machine rather than too ready. Isn’t our general tendency to overvalue the illusion of control?
Mistakes in moral arithmetic
1. For reasons of practicality and cost, nations should in many cases devote more resources to their own citizens than to foreigners.
2. Once the costs mentioned in #1 are taken into account, foreigners are still "worth less" than citizens.
#2 does not follow from #1, that is a mistake in moral arithmetic. #2 is false.
Theories of urban renewal
If you could change one thing about NYC/Russia, what would it be?
New York: End the mall-ification of the city. Throw out many rich
people and replace with adorable starving artists. Make Manhattan much
poorer.Petersburg: Start the mall-ification of the city. Throw out the
nationalist punks and replace with normal middle class folks. Make the
city much more prosperous.
Ali G interviews Noam Chomsky
Here is the video link.
In which I lecture 25 federal judges on Heidegger’s theory of technology
Seriously. That is tomorrow, for Frank Buckley’s Law and Economics Program. Fortunately, no one will be running a tape recorder. And yes, it is that Heidegger. But is "theory" the right word?
Greg Mankiw lets out his moralist
Ten percent of Greg disapproves of gambling. More than anything I am baffled by gambling; to me it would be as fun as paying to count pennies. I genuinely cannot understand the adrenalin rush but I don’t enjoy driving really fast either. If I let out my moralist (who is more than ten percent, I might add), I would disapprove of people who are usually late, people who smoke cigars in restaurants, people who play loud music late at night, and people who are not curious. Call me a prude if you want, but might these people be, in some fundamental sense, partly evil? Seriously.
What is new and essential in political philosophy?
That is for the last 25 to 30 years; here is the collective wisdom of CrookedTimber commentators. The picks are good ones, but I’ll predict the lasting work for (if not in) political philosophy will come from some other direction entirely. How about neuroscience, experiments, or evolutionary psychology?
I’ll run a similar query soon about economics, with open comments of course. Get your thoughts ready. If you leave a comment today, restrict yourself to political philosophy.
The Ethics of Economists
I have an article in TCS today on why economists tend to be more in favor of immigration than the typical person. Surprisingly, the ethics of economists may be part of the answer! Here’s an excerpt:
Economists…tend not to distinguish between us
and them. We look instead for policies that at least in principle make
everyone better off. Policies that make us better off at the price of
making them even worse off are for politicians, not economists.Immigration makes immigrants much better off. In the normal debate
this fact is not considered to be of great importance — who cares
about them? But economists tend not to count some people as worth more
than others, especially not if the difference is something so random as
where a person was born.Economists do sometimes distinguish between the rich and the poor,
but high school dropouts in the United States are rich compared to
low-skilled immigrants from Mexico. It’s a peculiar kind of ethics that
says we should greatly penalize very poor immigrants in order to
marginally benefit relatively rich Americans (peculiar at least if one
is not stuck in the Robbers Cave).