I used to always predict Fama but I can’t this year. Thomas Sargent is worthy and he has done much more than "rational expectations" but that moniker will hurt his chances for now. Shiller is a possibility but maybe that looks like pandering to current events. And I don’t think they will pick anyone who was on the board of A.I.G., at least not this year.
Here are my old picks. This still wouldn’t be a bad year for Tirole, Williamson, or anyone else who worked on agency problems. It seems those problems matter. And there is still environmental economics. Or the "surprising European who is undervalued by Americans" pick, a’la Maurice Allais or Trygve Haavelmo.
What do you predict? Please tell us in the comments.