Nobel predictions

by on October 9, 2008 at 9:17 am in Economics | Permalink

I used to always predict Fama but I can’t this year.  Thomas Sargent is worthy and he has done much more than "rational expectations" but that moniker will hurt his chances for now.  Shiller is a possibility but maybe that looks like pandering to current events.  And I don’t think they will pick anyone who was on the board of A.I.G., at least not this year.

Here are my old picks.  This still wouldn’t be a bad year for Tirole, Williamson, or anyone else who worked on agency problems.  It seems those problems matter.  And there is still environmental economics.  Or the "surprising European who is undervalued by Americans" pick, a’la Maurice Allais or Trygve Haavelmo.

What do you predict?  Please tell us in the comments.

1 pants October 9, 2008 at 9:27 am

I dunno, my money is still on Feldstein, even with AIG.

Or maybe Paul Romer

2 Anonymous October 9, 2008 at 9:38 am

Holmstrom, Tirole, Milgrom

3 Andrew John October 9, 2008 at 9:50 am

I think that every year around this time I mention Peter Diamond’s name.

4 dave smith October 9, 2008 at 10:06 am

Feldstein, Barro, Tirole, Romer

Barro is most deserving of the prize today among those who have not won it.

The person I’d really like to see win it is Tullock, but I doubt he ever will.

5 Neel October 9, 2008 at 10:26 am

I’ll be happy if Jagdish Bhagwati wins it.

6 gabe October 9, 2008 at 10:53 am

Bill Bonner has been more impressive than any of the PHD’s over the last few years…here is one of his proteges. His explantion of what is going is interesting.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/stansberry/oct072008.html

7 Dimitrios Diamantaras October 9, 2008 at 11:24 am

Trygve Haavelmo won the prize in 1989.

I also think Lionel McKenzie has been unjustly overlooked. But I don’t feel confident in predicting he will now be honored… Paul Romer is another strong candidate, I think.

8 DK October 9, 2008 at 11:30 am

Fama, definitely, your capitulation is the signal that’s it’s his time.

9 GVV October 9, 2008 at 11:54 am

I know 99 percent of readers will object.This year give it to a post-Keynesian who has studied well financial instability,liquidity,expectations,uncertainty and the macroeconomy-Harcourt,Davidson,Kregel,Chick.I also epect the names like Baumol, Williamson,Bhagvathi,Dixit from the micro side.

10 Jar Jar Binks October 9, 2008 at 12:22 pm

If Sargent wins it does he get paired with Lars Hansen?

11 jason voorhees October 9, 2008 at 1:31 pm

First pick is Barro. I’ll pick Barro every year til he gets it – I’m afraid that the one year I do’nt he’ll win and I want the bragging rights!

My dark horse picks are Dixit and Krugman, though.

How far in advance does the committee pick? The meltdown began last year, so presumably even if they decided earlier this year it could be affected by current events, but have they historically shown to be sensitive to even broadly defined current events?

12 Barkley Rosser October 9, 2008 at 3:54 pm

I’ll repeat my comments from earlier, just
the main picks, which I put up on econospeak
weeks ago. Five sets of likelies for this year.

1) Bhagwati and Dixit with somebody else
for trade

2) Baumol, for lots of stuff

3) Tullock and Krueger, possibly with a third,
maybe Kornai, for rent seeking

4) Fama with Thaler and or Mandelbrot for
finance. No way Fama gets it alone this year.

5) Easterlin for happiness studies.

13 izzy October 9, 2008 at 4:05 pm

Lars Peter Hansen for GMM.

14 o2 October 9, 2008 at 5:35 pm

Or the “surprising European who is undervalued by Americans” pick, a’la Maurice Allais or Trygve Haavelmo.

Bruno Frey?!

15 Jay October 9, 2008 at 5:58 pm

Krugman! For his work on the differences between the “Bush economy” and the “Clinton economy”!

16 Talin October 9, 2008 at 8:34 pm

If we are serious, this year the Nobel should be deserted.

17 Alper October 9, 2008 at 10:53 pm

Easy pick– Tyler Cowen

18 somebody October 10, 2008 at 12:31 am

The Nobel is now about as credible an international institution as is the U.N.

19 Barkley Rosser October 10, 2008 at 10:21 am

Oh, and if it is Bhagwati and Dixit for trade with a third, that third will not be Krugman.

20 experimenter October 10, 2008 at 11:39 am

Michael Kremer and Esther Duflo won’t win it this year, but their research programs are the stuff of future Nobel prizes.

21 Chris October 10, 2008 at 2:00 pm

Europeans (and Americans) like to give awards as proxy attacks on or critiques of George W. Bush. That helps Krugman.

22 Barkley Rosser October 10, 2008 at 7:09 pm

Kornai is a long shot possibility by himself, but might
be more likely as a combo with Tullock and Krueger. Corruption
is hot, and rent seeking and the soft budget constraint are both
ways of looking at this. Plus, the soft budget constraint looks
very relevant to all the financial bailouts we are seeing. Kornai
is probably the leading candidate for a European all by his or
herself for one this year.

23 JLS October 12, 2008 at 7:41 am

I would like to see in no particular order: Diwert, Jorgenson, Barro,

24 hellen May 14, 2009 at 8:57 pm

It is enlightening!

25 valence May 14, 2009 at 8:59 pm

it is not true for all the things

26 zejly November 17, 2009 at 7:29 pm

Edmond Malinvaud deserves it strongly.

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