Nobel predictions

I used to always predict Fama but I can’t this year.  Thomas Sargent is worthy and he has done much more than "rational expectations" but that moniker will hurt his chances for now.  Shiller is a possibility but maybe that looks like pandering to current events.  And I don’t think they will pick anyone who was on the board of A.I.G., at least not this year.

Here are my old picks.  This still wouldn’t be a bad year for Tirole, Williamson, or anyone else who worked on agency problems.  It seems those problems matter.  And there is still environmental economics.  Or the "surprising European who is undervalued by Americans" pick, a’la Maurice Allais or Trygve Haavelmo.

What do you predict?  Please tell us in the comments.


I dunno, my money is still on Feldstein, even with AIG.

Or maybe Paul Romer

Holmstrom, Tirole, Milgrom

I think that every year around this time I mention Peter Diamond's name.

Feldstein, Barro, Tirole, Romer

Barro is most deserving of the prize today among those who have not won it.

The person I'd really like to see win it is Tullock, but I doubt he ever will.

I'll be happy if Jagdish Bhagwati wins it.

Bill Bonner has been more impressive than any of the PHD's over the last few is one of his proteges. His explantion of what is going is interesting.

Trygve Haavelmo won the prize in 1989.

I also think Lionel McKenzie has been unjustly overlooked. But I don't feel confident in predicting he will now be honored... Paul Romer is another strong candidate, I think.

Fama, definitely, your capitulation is the signal that's it's his time.

I know 99 percent of readers will object.This year give it to a post-Keynesian who has studied well financial instability,liquidity,expectations,uncertainty and the macroeconomy-Harcourt,Davidson,Kregel,Chick.I also epect the names like Baumol, Williamson,Bhagvathi,Dixit from the micro side.

If Sargent wins it does he get paired with Lars Hansen?

First pick is Barro. I'll pick Barro every year til he gets it - I'm afraid that the one year I do'nt he'll win and I want the bragging rights!

My dark horse picks are Dixit and Krugman, though.

How far in advance does the committee pick? The meltdown began last year, so presumably even if they decided earlier this year it could be affected by current events, but have they historically shown to be sensitive to even broadly defined current events?

I'll repeat my comments from earlier, just
the main picks, which I put up on econospeak
weeks ago. Five sets of likelies for this year.

1) Bhagwati and Dixit with somebody else
for trade

2) Baumol, for lots of stuff

3) Tullock and Krueger, possibly with a third,
maybe Kornai, for rent seeking

4) Fama with Thaler and or Mandelbrot for
finance. No way Fama gets it alone this year.

5) Easterlin for happiness studies.

Lars Peter Hansen for GMM.

Or the "surprising European who is undervalued by Americans" pick, a'la Maurice Allais or Trygve Haavelmo.

Bruno Frey?!

Krugman! For his work on the differences between the "Bush economy" and the "Clinton economy"!

If we are serious, this year the Nobel should be deserted.

Easy pick-- Tyler Cowen

The Nobel is now about as credible an international institution as is the U.N.

Oh, and if it is Bhagwati and Dixit for trade with a third, that third will not be Krugman.

Michael Kremer and Esther Duflo won't win it this year, but their research programs are the stuff of future Nobel prizes.

Europeans (and Americans) like to give awards as proxy attacks on or critiques of George W. Bush. That helps Krugman.

Kornai is a long shot possibility by himself, but might
be more likely as a combo with Tullock and Krueger. Corruption
is hot, and rent seeking and the soft budget constraint are both
ways of looking at this. Plus, the soft budget constraint looks
very relevant to all the financial bailouts we are seeing. Kornai
is probably the leading candidate for a European all by his or
herself for one this year.

I would like to see in no particular order: Diwert, Jorgenson, Barro,

It is enlightening!

it is not true for all the things

Edmond Malinvaud deserves it strongly.

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