Canada projection of the day

by on March 10, 2013 at 5:27 pm in Books, Current Affairs, Law | Permalink

In Toronto, 63 percent of the population will be foreign born by 2031…In Vancouver, the foreign-born population will be 59 percent.

That is from the quite interesting The Big Shift: The Seismic Change in Canadian Politics, Business, and Culture and What it Means for Our Future, by Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson.  If you are into the “how should the Republican Party reinvent itself?” question, this book is a must-read.  That’s not so much my thing, but it’s also a fascinating introduction to the new ethnic politics in Canada and why so many Canadian immigrants have seen fit to vote for the conservatives.

Beans March 10, 2013 at 5:40 pm

Canada seems to allow foreign born and first generation children to carry on their culture at their own pace. There’s less forced harmonization, but the result nonetheless is the same after one to two generations.

Politically, the conservatives are the equivalent of liberal democrats in the US, but with a better approach to tax policy. The conservative provinces of Alberta and to a lesser extend Saskatchewan benefit from this political leaning with a tax burden that is very competitive or better than US equivalents (factoring total tax expense)

derek March 10, 2013 at 9:12 pm

I don’t think it has anything to do with allow. It is sheer numbers that typically end up in a few of the larger cities.

Beans March 11, 2013 at 2:29 am

There isn’t as much of an expectation to conform as there is in America, it happens of it’s own accord, typically in response to economic pressure.

So Much for Subtlety March 10, 2013 at 6:32 pm

Cherry picking Hong Kong millionaires and Indian doctors is a very different immigration strategy to America’s of letting in anyone who wants to cut grass for a living. If Canada had also let in a vast emerging underclass, to join the embittered underclass already there, I am not sure that the Conservatives would be doing so well in the polls.

But we will see.

Certainly the more extreme liberalism of Canada’s liberals probably doesn’t help with communities that think gays ought to be stoned to death.

Beans March 10, 2013 at 6:35 pm

In fairness, letting in the best and brightest is a no-brainer. Most parties implicitly concede this, despite what they might claim.

Michael March 10, 2013 at 7:51 pm

I’m actually one-half of a US/Canadian marriage and we’ve lived in both countries and done the immigration process both ways (before we were married). Have you ever tried to immigrate into the US? Saying, “I want to come in and cut grass” won’t get you very far.

maguro March 10, 2013 at 7:52 pm

It will if you have a relative in the US.

Matt March 10, 2013 at 8:20 pm

That depends heavily on the relative, and where you’re from. Not every type of relative counts, and many sorts will make you eligible for a visa only after 10 years or more, or, if you’re from Mexico, China, India, or The Philippines, perhaps more than 20 years. Only “immediate relatives”, and only of US citizens (not permanent residents) are relatively quick (less than a year, if you’re lucky). (“Immediate relatives” are spouses, unmarried children under 21, and parents of citizens over 21.) There are other requirements, too. The US family-based immigration system is more generous than most countries, but not nearly as generous as most people think.

RR March 10, 2013 at 9:24 pm

Very valid points. Even for parents of Citizens from the countrie s mentioned can take very long. The whle process is relatively difficult.

So Much For Subtlety March 10, 2013 at 9:14 pm

Someone asks you? I thought you just jumped the fence?

The fact is the liberal Left and the pro-Big Business Right worked together to make sure anyone could cross the Rio Grande and provide cheap labor. The Right wanting the workers, the Left wanting the voting block and ending “White hegemony”. The problem is that people are not fungible. You have Mexican origin voters and you will have a Mexican-style economy with Mexican-style politicians. Look at California.

The actual immigration system is for suckers who want a real job that pays a real wage.

Actually Mexico is probably the best outcome about now. Chavezismo looks more likely.

Nyongesa March 11, 2013 at 12:20 am

What rubbish all round, what about California do you want us to look at, it resembles Mexican politics in not one single way. Chavezismo???, is hyperbole a substitute for argument here now?

mrpinto March 11, 2013 at 2:18 pm

If you think that CA politics resemble Mexico, then you understand neither?

Chris March 10, 2013 at 6:46 pm

It’s easy to get a conservative-leaning pool of immigrants. All you need to do is move your country 1000 miles away from the third world.

Nyongesa March 11, 2013 at 12:29 am

Third worlder’s are very conservative, this is what rich westerners don’t grasp. Go to any African village and spend some quality time with the locals, and you’ll find all the conservative values so prized by the have’s in full force. Small government, self sufficient, traditional values etc. the whole buffet. The challenge for conservatives is the tribalism they demonstrate hits ta the most basic organizing principles of Human societies, that is values are trumped by group affiliation, because when push comes to shove, you will shove for your group and not your values. When conservatives here, like the Tories did in the U.K. show immigrant groups that they are included in the group, they will join them, almost every African I know is a natural republican voter, but will vote Obama every time, as they know White racism in visceral ways, but hey, like most immigrants they are not race obsessed, i.e it’s not black and white to them as perceived by native African American, it’s just tribal politics to them, and they know that game well from birth onward, and will switch allegiances if it benefits their tribe. Republican need to learn the tribal coalition game to win.

Cliff March 11, 2013 at 11:11 am

Thanks for weighing in with your expertise, I guess that is why Africa is dominated by pro-market governments and not socialism. If the Republicans could just get African immigrants on their side, the sky would be the limit.

mrpinto March 11, 2013 at 2:19 pm

He’s talking about social conservatism, not economic.

Careless March 12, 2013 at 1:53 pm

I don’t know about African immigrants to the US, but Hispanic Americans are to the left of the average American on pretty much every social issue, even including abortion at this point.

Brett March 10, 2013 at 6:59 pm

This doesn’t surprise me. The Canadians have been very open-armed towards rich and/or skilled/educated immigrants for a long time. That’s going to give them both a highly diverse, heavily foreign-born population, as well as a fiscally conservative population since so many of them are going to be middle- and upper-middle-class folks.

If that book was available in the US, I’d read it.

Paul Blumenthal March 10, 2013 at 7:14 pm

I’m an American immigrant that has always leaned more towards Republicans too. I think that if you focus mainly on the immigrants of European descend in the US, there’ll be plenty Republicans among them as well.

Millian March 10, 2013 at 7:45 pm

But that’s the opposite of the Canadian experience. The Canadian Conservatives are stronger among non-European immigrants and their descendants than many major European ethnic groups, not least French-Canadians.

Mike March 10, 2013 at 9:13 pm

It’s quite a stretch to conflate French-Canadians with modern immigrants from Europe (who are more likely to be from other places).

Dave Barnes March 10, 2013 at 7:26 pm

But, what does it mean for hockey?
And, poutine?
And, Tim Hornton’s?

Careless March 10, 2013 at 10:24 pm

If Vancouver riots are anything to go by, I think hockey will be ok

derek March 10, 2013 at 11:50 pm

So is the poutine. I had a greek poutine the other day. I’m certain that I could find a thai flavored on if I really looked. Poutine by the way is french fries with cheese curds and gravy.

Careless March 11, 2013 at 5:53 pm

Didn’t see a lot of poutine in the riots.

Vanya March 11, 2013 at 4:50 am

Poutine is a part of Quebec culture, not Canadian.

Michael March 10, 2013 at 7:59 pm

With this comes an increasing xenophobia though. 10 years ago, most Canadians I knew spoke glowingly of their country’s “tossed salad” philosophy (their version of our melting pot), and loved the idea of Canada as a country that offered people a new start but allowed them to carry on their culture. But increasingly, I hear more and more derogatory remarks regarding the growing minority populations. I now get the same anti-Muslim and xenophobic email forwards from my Canadian relatives that were once unique to the ones sent to me by my Texan cousin.

Even my most liberal multicultural-loving hippie friends in BC now regularly say some pretty harsh stuff regarding the ever-growing Asian populations in Vancouver. From BC to Toronto I hear more and more Canadians talk fearfully about their culture being overrun.

Beans March 10, 2013 at 8:19 pm

This sentiment is typically reserved to the economically stagnant as well as the self-reflective artistic classes.

The prairies tend to be less self-infatuated.

Cliff March 10, 2013 at 8:32 pm

Um, what?

Thor March 10, 2013 at 9:09 pm

Maybe they’ve experienced selfish street racing brats?

So Much For Subtlety March 10, 2013 at 9:10 pm

A conservative is just a liberal mugged by reality. So your relatives have woken up to the bullsh!t that is multiculturalism. It hardly matters as it is probably too late for Canada. Your future is Lebanon. Folllowed by Egypt. Followed by Turkey.

Given how Asian immigration has brought high crime to Vancouver and even worse among Muslim communities, I am not surprised.

Andrew Edwards March 10, 2013 at 10:32 pm

So obviously I have no interest in debating this loser but it does astonish me how quickly the naked racism shows up.

I try to keep stuff like this in mind when I hear non-white friends talk about experiencing racism – here it is! Not hard to find! Maybe they applied for a job one time and a guy like this was reading resumes….

Nyongesa March 11, 2013 at 12:35 am

This is MR now days, it used to be an economics driven, discussion orientated site, but post financial crises, more “so much For Subtlety’s” have floated in looking for validation of their preconceived biases.

asdf March 11, 2013 at 1:54 am

The site sponsor chooses these topics at a fairly regular frequency, enough to be intentional. I assume he will probably stop after some incident causes the internet world to intersect with his real world. Progressives don’t take kindly to crimethink, even though I doubt the author actually experiences crimethink (rather, I see someone desperately trying to refute crimethink and failing. The true solution to eliminating crimethink in oneself is not to think at all). At some point his career will be threatened or someone he’s engaged in a status competition with will undercut him at some chattering class function and that will be the end of it.

jim March 11, 2013 at 1:30 am

I’ve experienced 2x more racism as a white in America than any black has. But anti-white racism is ignored by the progressive trash ruling class.

affenkopf March 11, 2013 at 5:00 am

Sure you have, twice as much.

prior_approval March 11, 2013 at 6:20 am

And twice as much sexism as any woman, undoubtedly.

Marie March 11, 2013 at 7:51 am

I imagine people just don’t like you and are searching for the quickest way to insult you and make you go away.

Seriously, dude, it’s a pretty quick method that plenty of people use.

Andrew Edwards March 10, 2013 at 10:28 pm

Maybe your friends are just assholes?

(I live in downtown Toronto and me and my friends are just excited about Korean-French fusion restaurants)

asdff March 11, 2013 at 12:22 am

People are definately afraid of Koreans and French moving into their neighboorhoods. Those are some tough characters.

And don’t even get me started on what fusion restaurants do to property values.

Careless March 11, 2013 at 5:56 pm

Is this an attempt at parody?

Dismalist March 10, 2013 at 8:09 pm

I don’t buy the “let in the high class” immigrants story or policy. It’ll work with low class immigrants: Just look at us!

ThomasH March 10, 2013 at 8:35 pm

If Republicans adoped the policies of Canadian Conservatives they would be Democrats.

Thor March 10, 2013 at 10:17 pm

Blue Dog Democrats?

derek March 10, 2013 at 9:19 pm

The Conservatives didn’t do anything out of the ordinary. They simply ignored what they were told (you are racist) and started campaigning in ethnic areas. They started showing up at the ethnic celebrations. Essentially just started asking these folks for their vote. Oddly enough a large number gave it to them.

The apoplectic reaction from the left has been a source of entertainment while hockey was out on strike.

David March 10, 2013 at 10:29 pm

Ideally I would read the book, but can I get a better summary of why Canadian immigrants vote conservative? I can’t believe it’s as simple as they “just stated asking these folks for their vote”.

At least, I don’t think it’s a very helpful book for reinventing the Republican Party, if the thesis is that Republicans just need to start asking hispanics for their votes.

derek March 10, 2013 at 11:41 pm

http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/11/29/harper%E2%80%99s-secret-weapon/

This is by Paul Wells, a guy worth reading about Canadian politics.

Imagine if when Rick Perry in debate said what he did about education for immigrants that Romney and the others hadn’t jumped down his throat, and that Romney hadn’t gone on about self deportation. And that Republican politicians showed up and partied at the various hispanic festivals. Something akin to Giuliani cross dressing for a parade. As the article describes, the canadian Conservatives walk out if the rhetoric is extreme, which probably wins a few votes in itself from more reasonable people from that ethic group. There were african american groups really upset about Obama’s gay marriage switch last year, did any conservative Republican get on the phone and take sides publicly with those folks?

The Conservatives started from a base in a western prairie province (singular) and had to piece by piece build a coalition, win over one group after another, including the old Red Tories in the east. This took over a decade and multiple either election losses or minority parliaments. The base red meat was the regular and quite entertaining kick in the hind end of the Liberals, who had the knack of leaning over and painting a large target on their nether regions. They took advantage of the fights on the left, the fights within the Liberal Party, the end result that Harper has been one of the longest serving prime ministers in Canada.

The old Liberal Party, or as they self describe, the Natural Ruling Party has fallen apart for reasons similar to what has happened to the Republicans. They gradually lost one constituency after another until they moved themselves out of the game. They first lost Quebec, which they used to own. They have almost no presence in Western Canada, and the seats they do hold are open to challenge from the NDP. Aided and abetted by an opportunistic opposition as well. I think the solution for the Republicans is to manage states well, and get the municipal electoral machines working so that they run some cities. They could hardly do worse than the Democrats.

The Conservatives also have the advantage of being the only party that fully supports the only bright spot in the Canadian economy.

Chip March 10, 2013 at 11:32 pm

Only some 18% or so of immigrants to Canada are actually skilled. Most are family members and this explains why immigrants are an edtimated net annual cost to the country if around $23 billion.

The number one source if immigrants is the Philippines.

That SOME immigrants identify with the Conservatives is largely due to social issues or the happy accident that we get many from Asian countries where a work and education ethic still exists.

And if the Conseratives are in power it’s because we have multiple parties that split the left vote among the 65% or so who oppose Harper, and I don’t have the stats handy but I would bet a crisp $100 note that immigrants – who are disproportionately poor- tend to vote for parties propping up the welfare state.

derek March 10, 2013 at 11:45 pm

It is worth noting that in the parliamentary system, first past the post electoral structure, that if you get a hair over 40% of the popular vote you run a good chance of having a majority. Chretien who served for 13 years (from memory) never got over 50%, in fact the 1993 election where the Progressive Conservatives were wiped out he got 41.3%, his high water mark.

derek March 10, 2013 at 11:46 pm

The Conservatives won 39.6% last election and won a majority.

asdf March 11, 2013 at 12:19 am

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/who-really-won-the-%E2%80%9Cethnic%E2%80%9D-vote-in-the-may-election/

“Darrell Bricker told the LISPOP seminar in Toronto earlier this week that this group of immigrant Conservative supporters was composed of more established Italian, Greek, Portugese and older South Asian immigrant communities, amongst whom the Conservatives were now winning decisively. This group of voters has been in Canada long enough to have moved out to the suburbs, and has then increasingly taken on the middle class values of their neighbours (whether born in Canada or not), he said.”

“The data seem to show that the NDP is winning amongst newer Canadians and visible minorities, with the Liberals also drawing relatively more of their votes from this group as well; while the Conservatives are overwhelmingly winning amongst immigrants of much longer standing, primarily from European origins, and narrowly beating the NDP amongst those born in Canada.”

“So, this gives another clue as to the profile of the likely remaining Liberal immigrant supporters, inasmuch as a larger number of them would be expected to be Muslims, though the Liberals are facing a stiff challenge from the NDP for that group as well.”

The NDP and Liberals both appear to be leftist parties, though I will plead ignorance here. I also have no clue how that French Canadian nonsense effects it.

The bottom line seems to be this:

1) The same groups we would expect to vote leftists do (the low IQ ethnic lumpenproleteriate) . Thus Canada has the same Muslim problem that Europe has.

2) White people who are immigrants are still white people (shocker) and vote like it.

3) Canada doesn’t share a border with Mexico (shocker) which means there aren’t a lot of Mexicans. Which means nearly all comparisons are totally useless for our purposes.

Chip March 11, 2013 at 12:20 am

Worth mentioning too that while the Conservatives have been picking up some immigrant votes they are also starting to tighten the screw on immigration policy. A very delicate proposition.

While I favor immigration in principal I think it’s difficult to balance a generous welfare state and ‘free’ healthcare with open immigration that depends on family members of the initial skilled worker.

I prefer Singapore’s system in which high skills and income are prerequisites, with little recourse to government benefits.

It’s all about incentives as usual.

derek March 11, 2013 at 12:50 am
George March 11, 2013 at 12:59 am

I’m an immigrant to Canada (but I did attend an American university). My family came here some sixty years ago, from Europe. I’m very grateful to them for their decision.

Labels such as left and right don’t really describe what goes on here. By and large, this is a very tolerant country, with one peculiar exception. It is very fortunate in having been endowed with a wealth of natural resources. This greases the wheels and reduces frictions — when people are doing well, they tend to be more easy-going and tolerant.

There is some anti-immigrant sentiment, but then, there always has been. No main-stream political party would dare exploit it. As the proportion of immigrants grows, it would be futile anyway.

Quebec and the French remain a problem. French Quebeckers like a large nanny state. At the same time they are quite intolerant of groups that try to maintain a separate identity, such as Moslems, or indeed the English. (Before anyone calls me a racist — er, linguist? — my mother tongue is French.)

Andrew March 11, 2013 at 1:22 am

The Liberal party is weak. That’s the entire story. If the Liberals hadn’t elected three incompetent leaders in a row, and if the party hadn’t wasted a decade resting on it’s laurels when it was comfortably in power, one of this would be an issue. The whole situation is a result of the kind of incompetence that would result in Michael Ignatieff becoming Liberal leader.

Steve Sailer March 11, 2013 at 2:17 am

Here’s the story of my failed attempt to qualify to immigrate to Canada:

“Canada Doesn’t Want Me”

http://www.isteve.com/Canada_Doesnt_Want_Me.htm

affenkopf March 11, 2013 at 5:12 am

Can’t blame ‘em.

Steve Sailer March 11, 2013 at 8:05 am

Neither could I.

Mike March 11, 2013 at 10:40 am

My wife and I are both descendants of Asian immigrants on the prairies. We moved from a largely white and perpetually Liberal (and high-income) area, to a new development heavily populated by Asians and Nigerians. I’ve been very surprised by the prevalence of Conservative campaign signs during elections, and in general the large margins by which they win. Interestingly, the left parties also field cannon fodder for candidates (the last NDP candidate was about 19 years old).

I think the left-wing meme of dismissing the Conservatives as really just moderate Democrats (and therefore not really conservative) doesn’t wash. The fact is that, in this country, they own the right, and they still get the vote. How good their policies are is a separate question, but I don’t think there’s any doubt that immigrants know they’re voting for the right-wing option.

Abelard Lindsey March 11, 2013 at 8:41 pm

So, Canadian immigrants vote conservative but American ones do not. This suggests either a difference in the immigrants into the respective countries or a difference between Canadian and American conservatives. The article provides a hint. Canadian conservatives focus on economic issue, presumably free-market economics. American conservatives are often religious psychos.

Kristin Spears March 11, 2013 at 11:51 pm

I found this fact from “The Big Shift: The Seismic Change in Canadian Politics, Business, and Culture and What it Means for Our Future”, by Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson to be very interesting. I am not very educated upon the break down of the population of Canada, but 63% is a very high number, especially when it is describing the future population of a country. It is bizarre to me that a country’s population could be 63% foreign, that is over half. This makes me curious of Canada’s current population break up? It also makes me wonder what ethnicities will make up this 63% in 2031? From my minimal knowledge of Canada I never thought of it as a country that contained multiple ethnicities. I thought most of the people who lived in Canada were mainly Canadian, however this assumption of mine is obviously very wrong.
The second portion of this statement says that the population of Vancouver, a city in Canada, will be 59% foreign. After doing a little reading about Vancouver I realized that it was a coastal seaport city on the mainland of British Columbia, Canada. This fact makes this above statement a little less surprising. If Vancouver is a British Columbian city it makes since for it’s population to be split between British and Canadian ethnicities, however I wonder if these are the only two ethnicities making up the future, 59% foreign-born, population of Vancouver in 2031.
After thinking so in depth about the population break down of Vancouver and Canada as whole it makes me wonder what the population break down of America is and how it may change by 2031. It seems that the population change in Canada may be due to the fact that more British people will be making up their population rather than Canadian people. America does not necessarily have a particular country that it is tied to like Canada is with Britain, therefore I wonder if our population was to drastically change what country/ethnicity would most of the people be from. This topic really is very interesting to me. I wonder if in one hundred years or so, if the world will no longer be segregated like it is today? I wonder if there will be all sorts of different ethnicities in every country? I’m sure it would take longer than one hundred years for this to happen, however I am curious as to if it will ever happen? This blog really made me think about the logistics of our society. Why do certain ethnicities make up America? How have they changed over the past hundred years? This blog has most definitely inspired me to research the future of America’s population, just like the above authors researched Canada’s population.

Pithlord March 12, 2013 at 7:21 pm

I have been Canadian all my life, and I have never noticed any polarization between consumers of coffee and energy drinks, as Ibbitson claims. Quite the reverse.

It is true that for a long time, non-white immigrants voted overwhelmingly for the Liberal Party (which is in the middle and not on the left of Canadian politics), and that this loyalty has declined as the Liberal coalition has had less reason to exist. Much of the rest of the claims in this book are total nonsense.

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