by Tyler Cowen
on December 5, 2013 at 11:24 am
in Data Source, Law
They are mostly in the Midwest, some South Carolina too.
For the pointer I thank Craig Richardson.
Is there a common denominator for these neighborhoods other than being black and poor?
Basically, the list appears to be variations of Detriot, Chicago and lots of red states inner cities. I do wonder how much of the housing bubble created “Our prices discriminate so we don’t have to” (Simpsons) reaity here.
Considering 13 of the 25 aren’t in traditional “red states”, it sure was constructive to get that jab in there.
If you mean ‘civil war’ era you’re right, 5 of the 10 states are secessionist; an even split.
But looking at the last 4 elections 8/10 states were red.
Gee, I wonder how many of these neighborhoods voted 95+% for Obama.
Ha! Based on your comment there’s a 95% chance you live in a suburb or exurb.
Most look somewhat deserted. They might also hold disputed drug markets I think.
Odd, I used to drive past the intersection in Nashville (#18 on the list) all the time, and while it wasn’t the best neighborhood, it didn’t feel especially unsafe, nor did it have that reputation compared to other places in the city. This was in the 1990s. On the list of Nashville’s worst neighborhoods, this wouldn’t make it in the top 10. Possible conclusions:
1) The neighborhood has gone was downhill in 20 years–I find this unlikely as it is near Vanderbilt and just north of a fairly ritzy area.
2) The date here is from 2011, maybe there was a brief spate of crime temporarily lifting this location in the rankings.
3) The study’s methodology is flawed somehow, leading to unlikely outcomes.
4) Intuition is a poor way of determining what areas are really safe.
there is a FAQ at the link on the methodology, which seems quite legit…read it once and see if it works with what you know..
actually, Tyler’s headline threw you off; it’s the 25 most dangerous census tracts, or neighborhoods of up to 8000 pop…
I was curious about that to. So I cross compared it with the Nashville PD Crime map. The results don’t match up, it’s not the worst part of Nashville and it seems highly unlikely that it’s got over twice the crime rate of the city average. So, I’m inclined to think the results bogus.
It’s possible that it’s a statistical fluke and the area had a spike in crimes and those sent it to the top of the list.
Maintain a low profile. Keep moving.
Here is a dominant theme that is seldom spoken.
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I used to live in #17. I did have to pull a firearm on someone once, so maybe it was a bad neighborhood.
But you were robbing him so that does not count.
Can we really make an estimate on your odds of being a victim at a specific intersection without conditioning on daytime versus night, as well as what you’re doing there? I know the latter is pretty close to unobservable, but I doubt most people don’t get stabbed or shot just for fun (disagreement welcomed – would love to see some data on that).
Can we really make an estimate on your odds of being a victim at a specific intersection without conditioning on daytime versus night, as well as what you’re doing there?
I don’t think it’s literally the intersection. I think it’s the area around that particular intersection. The highlighted area for Nashville was a block of several square miles.
None are in the LA metro area? Where is Compton, Inglewood, south LA? Maybe things aren’t so bad there.
Those areas in LA hispanics have largely displaced blacks. Ron Unz had a pretty in-depth article on how hispanics do not appear to have any higher crime rates than whites.
Speaking for Detroit (#1, 2, 3, 7), most / all of these neighborhoods are severely depopulated and feature large numbers of abandoned homes where squatters can take up residence. Most anyone with the wherewithal to move – or with interests other than street crime – has already left.
This means not only a large numerator for these neighborhoods – lots of crime and criminals – but a low denominator – lots of vacant houses, empty lots, few services.
That said, these are very dangerous neighborhoods for outsiders. The only reason for an outsider to be there is to buy drugs – either a potential customer or a potential crime victim, as you clearly have enough money to buy drugs – or to take over territory and sell drugs yourself – a rival.
Here’s where one would post the usual disclaimers about generalizing, stereotypes etc, and while there are probably some people there struggling to get by and improve their neighborhood, these statements require few qualifiers.
Speaking for Detroit (#1, 2, 3, 7), most / all of these neighborhoods are severely depopulated and feature large numbers of abandoned homes where squatters can take up residence. Most anyone with the wherewithal to move – or with interests other than street crime – has already left. – See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/12/the-25-most-dangerous-street-corners-in-the-united-states.html#comments
I think that’s key. A lot of these cities have seen major falls in population — between 1950 and 2010, the population of Chicago fell by 26%, Detroit by 61% and St Louis by 63%, meaning there are entire ghost neighborhoods. Not only do areas full of boarded-up deserted houses invite squatters and criminals, but it decreases the denominator, making the crime rate higher (aside from the effects of a shrunken tax base etc.). That is the reason that so many of these places are in the midwest — the coasts and sun-belt haven’t had that kind of depopulation (i.e., even though the core cities have grown much more slowly than the metro areas, city populations have generally not shrunk in absolute terms).
As an interesting confirmation, both tracts in Houston are also largely abandoned, one is actually a deindustralized area. They are both pretty bad but the actually worse areas are adjacent. I wonder if this is a statistical artifact or whether semi vacant areas next to high crime districts really are more dangerous. I would be happy with both answers.
This might also explain why they are all in the midwest and south, those are the places with the vacant land.
Your title is misleading. Delmar and Euclid in St. Louis, while not completely safe, isn’t a live fire zone like the neighborhood to the north of it.
It is at the sweet spot where crime pays: you will still get traffic from the Central West End and the University Loop, while being far enough away from the almost constant police presence at those. Anyone that studied in the area knew that straying a little bit from the most traveled roads was asking to get mugged.
Everybody that signs a W-4 form is getting mugged.
A couple of generations from now, African Americans are going to be amazed when they think about all the desirable place where their ancestors had lived in 1975: Manhattan, the south shore of Chicago, in San Francisco and Oakland, near the beach in L.A., and so forth.
What do the top four have in common? They are in cities where my wife has lived. Sometimes correlation is causation!
One word, Africans
Chances of becoming a victim: 1 in 15. 1 in 15 what?
If you go to 15 of these street corners, you’ll get run over or shot once.
I love bad neighbourhoods. You always meet the most interesting people and stories there.
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