A new essay from Clay Shirky is almost always blogworthy. Recently he offered up his treatment of VOIP. Here is his entree into the topic:
“When” could still be a very long time, however. The incumbent local phone companies — Verizon, SBC, BellSouth and Qwest — have various degrees of interest in VoIP, but are loathe to embrace it quickly or completely, because doing so means admitting to everyone — shareholders, regulators, customers — that both monopoly control and artificially high voice revenues are going away. (The fact that this is true does not much lessen the pain of saying so.) As a result, they will likely try to convince regulatory agencies, both the FCC and the states’, to burden competitive VoIP firms like Vonage with additional costs and rules, while delaying their own offerings.
Complicating this de facto Plan A, however, is the fact that VoIP isn’t a service, it’s just a set of protocols, meaning that competitors don’t have to set themselves up as upstart phone companies to deploy VoIP. If Plan A is “Replace the phone system slowly and from within,” Plan B is far more radical: “Replace the phone system. Period.”
Here are two excellent paragraphs:
The official tradeoff in current telecom regulation is service guarantees in return for monopoly control. Over the decades, though, a third part of the bargain has arisen. Phone companies tolerated high taxation as well, in part because it guaranteed continued freedom from competition. As a result, telephony is treated as a vice instead of an essential service — the taxes and surcharges on a phone bill are more in line with the markup on alcohol and tobacco than with gas or air travel.
However, monopoly control, essential for the current bargain, is ending. The cumulative threats of competitive local phone companies, the decrease of second lines due to DSL and cellphone use, and now VoIP have made the old deal unsustainable. The rise of a competitive market seems conceptually simple, but most parts of the US have had a phone monopoly for longer than they’ve had indoor plumbing, so the possibility of phone service without the incumbent phone company is hard for many observers to understand.
The bottom line:
I can’t do better than to quote Clay:
With railroad bankruptcies in the 1940s, no one thought that the tracks would be ripped up and sold for scrap. Similarly, the question of whether the incumbent phone companies can survive if VoIP pops the bubble of voice revenues is separate from the question of whether the wires in the ground will continue to exist. Someone will sell data transmission over copper wires, but there’s no reason it has to be the existing phone companies, in the same way that someone still runs trains from St. Louis to Chicago, but it isn’t the B&O Railroad anymore.
Clay makes blogging easy, though arguably less fun. Just quote him and say yup, yup, and yup.