Shares in a Bush win are trading around 58-59 at Tradesports but only 53-54 at the Iowa markets. Could some of you please arbitrage this to prevent the gang at Crooked Timber from crowing about inefficient markets? Thanks.
Addendum: Many thanks to all the sharp MR readers who remind me that the Iowa market is for the popular vote share while the Tradesports markets is for the actual winner. I’m still a little surprised that the spread has widened recently but it is true that the price difference does not necessarily represent an arbitrage opportunity. Long Term Capital Management anyone?