Will China revalue the yuan?

The US Treasury, in its twice-yearly report to Congress on exchange rates and trade, stopped short on Tuesday of accusing China of currency manipulation but made clear it expected revaluation within six months.

That is the FT, read more here.  What does the betting market say (scroll down all the way)?  With a deadline of December 2005, the chance of revaluation is running in the 58 to 76 percent range.  Thanks to Chris Masse for the pointer.

Brad Setser offers an excellent analysis of whether revaluation would be good.


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