Nobel Prize predictions

The Economics prize will be announced October 9.  Here are speculations from last year.  Here are further plausible picks.  Gordon Tullock deserves it.  I predict Eugene Fama and Richard Thaler as deserving co-winners for their work in empirical finance.  Fama will win it for first proving (1972) and then disproving (1992) CAPM, the Capital Asset Pricing Model.  Thaler will win it for developing behavioral finance and a better account of how irrationalities manifest themselves in asset markets.  Kenneth French, a co-author of Fama’s, might be a third pick.  My greatest fear is that they pick Lars Svensson (I believe he is Norwegian, but still that is not a bad name for winning a Swedish prize), and somebody asks me to explain his work.

I believe I have never once predicted this prize correctly.  Last year I said Thomas Schelling, the co-winner with Bob Aumann, deserved the prize but might not ever get it.  What do you all think?

Addendum: Chris Masse points me to bookie odds on the Peace Prize.


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