Finding the predictive geniuses

James Acevedo is a "genius," though he admits no one at the
elementary school in Ridgewood, N.J., where he teaches third grade,
knows it.

But the Web site where he competes nightly,, was so taken by his record at forecasting sporting events
that it included him last month in a newly compiled list of 30
super-achievers culled from about 100,000 members and began selling
their "genius picks" to the public.

The obvious critical rejoinder is that someone from the group has the lucky touch, but only for a while.

"I go with my gut," he said. "It doesn’t feel like I’m a genius."

James is reluctant to take his wisdom to Las Vegas.  Here is the story, and thanks to Robin Hanson for the pointer.


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