- Wrap-up of an interesting conference run by Consensus Point (HT: Midas Oracle; Disclosure: I’m an occasional advisor to Consensus Point). Robin Hanson tells me that he is now (back to) bullish on prediction markets – he saw real evidence of real firms implementing prediction markets and taking them seriously.
UPDATE: Another nice summary available here.
- How to bet real money, in a country in which real money markets are illegal? www.bet2give.com allows you to bet your charitable donations against mine. You win the bet? My donations go to your charity. I win the bet? Your donations go to my preferred charity. Brilliant. Incentives, charitable donations, and legal protection – all good things. A longer description here. (HT: Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures)
- The ’08 race at InTrade: Latest trading suggest Hillary is a strong favorite to win the Democratic nomination (66% chance). The Republican primary is a true three horse race. Most puzzling (to me): How is Obama only a 16% chance? Some say he is really running for VP, but the markets suggest he is only a 27% chance to win the second spot on the ticket. My tip: Buy Obama for Prez at 8%.
[Full disclosure: I’m an occasional advisor to both Consensus Point and NewsFutures]