Prediction Markets: Some assorted news

  1. Wrap-up of an interesting conference run by Consensus Point (HT: Midas Oracle;  Disclosure: I’m an occasional advisor to Consensus Point).  Robin Hanson tells me that he is now (back to) bullish on prediction markets – he saw real evidence of real firms implementing prediction markets and taking them seriously.
    UPDATE: Another nice summary available here.
  2. How to bet real money, in a country in which real money markets are illegal? www.bet2give.com allows you to bet your charitable donations against mine.  You win the bet?  My donations go to your charity.  I win the bet?  Your donations go to my preferred charity.  Brilliant.  Incentives, charitable donations, and legal protection – all good things.  A longer description here.  (HT: Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures)
  3. The ’08 race at InTrade: Latest trading suggest Hillary is a strong favorite to win the Democratic nomination (66% chance).   The Republican primary is a true three horse race.  Most puzzling (to me): How is Obama only a 16% chance?  Some say he is really running for VP, but the markets suggest he is only a 27% chance to win the second spot on the ticket.  My tip: Buy Obama for Prez at 8%.

    [Full disclosure: I’m an occasional advisor to both Consensus Point and NewsFutures]

Comments

Thoughts on the New York prediction market conference, part 1
http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2007/10/01/thoughts-on-the-new-york-prediction-market-conference-part-1/

Justin, delighted to find your blog and through it your writings on prediction markets. I realized my Consensus Point NY event notes ommitted specific mention of the regulatory landscape in limiting PM adoption. I hadn't appreciated until reading the Brookings paper to which you contributed the extent of the issue and concern. I'll be following your progress.

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