Eight reasons to be optimistic about today’s economy

From Charles Calomiris, via Mark Thoma.  Here is my edited version of the list, without the (very good) explanations:

1. Housing prices may not be falling by as much as some economists say they are.
2. Although the inventory of homes for sale has risen, housing construction
activity has fallen substantially [which will support future prices].
3. The shock to the availability of credit has been concentrated primarily in
securitisations rather than in credit markets defined more broadly.
4. Aggregate financial market indicators improved substantially in September and
5. …nonfinancial firms are highly liquid and not overleveraged.
6. …households’ wealth is at an all-time high and continues to grow.
7. Of central importance is the healthy condition of banks.
8. Banks hold much more diversified portfolios today than they used to.

I find 3-8 more convincing than 1-2, noting of course that #7 is a relative judgment.  Here is a longer version of the Calomiris paper.


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