Who is Greener?

There is a new InTrade.com contract, this one on whether oil futures and the Democratic President contract move in the same direction on Election Day.  Right now it’s running at about 50 percent, which means an Obama victory won’t on average bring a higher price of energy.  Mark Thoma directs us to this interesting article on the bursting of the Green bubble, most of all among the Democrats.


I just got half way through An Inconvenient Truth and had to stop because my 1 year old was clapping. Now, of course, he was clapping because the throngs were cheering Al and he always claps when others clap (I wonder if this is the same reason for many in the throng).

I was disappointed if you can call it that. The first half anyway struck me as more of a "don't you wish Al Gore was elected" stroking than a serious documentary. I might even care about a history of the environmental movement, but I don't care to hear about Al Gore's movement.

Person, "move in the same direction" is a very weak requirement. I assume that the Obama contract won't be at 1.0 the day before the election.

Long time reader, first comment post. In reading this and other blogs - I have a general question I would be excited to see you address:

When I read what I view as more libertarian or republican economics blogs (this blog and Greg Mankiw's, for example), I generally get tasteful discussion of people who consider alternatives fairly and don't bash the other party, even when disagreeing. On economics blogs by liberals (e.g. Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman), you tend to get a lot of hate and vile spewed towards approximately half the population (anyone who dares vote Republican).

Why the difference in tone across blogs with different viewpoints? Why are liberal bloggers so bitter?

Tyler_Cowen: It doesn't matter if it's a weak requirement if its fulfillment has 50/50 odds regardless.

I'm not worried that Obama will be trading at 100.0 before election day. The problem, rather, is that the price change on election day due to resolution of the remaining uncertainty will very likely be small relative to the magnitude of the changes due to other factors, including and especially manipulation. Say oil is down a little just before close on election day. I overbid on it and reverse the sign.

Or let's say I'm betting on the contract and I believe Obama will cause higher oil prices. But then, I have to discount for the possibility that some other event will dwarf the change. Then I find that the probability of this is high enough to make the election-day correlation depend on random factors.

This is Matt of 5:39, not the Matt of 5:45:

Person, be careful about what you're proposing. You should make it clear that you want to derive a correlation coefficient from multiple data points (say the movement in the closing prices across each day) not simply the movement across the entire time period (one measurement today and one measurement after election day). The former should do what you want it to, while the latter actually might do the opposite (it depends how price movements of Obama are time-correlated to each other relative to how price movements of oil futures are time-correlated to each other).

Also, could we please stick to a discussion of the topic at hand, not whether/why liberal bloggers are more shrill than conservative bloggers...

Matt_M: Here's what I said:

As I previously suggested, it would have made MUCH more sense to bet on the correlation of the changes over all of election season, not just election day. In other words, find out if oil gets more expensive whenever Obama's chances of winning go up.

Pay particular attention to the bolded parts. That explanation gave sufficient reason to indicate I meant to take multiple such data points.

The Climate Security Act is the baby of sometime-Democratic Party Member, McCain-supporter Joe "It's My Own Party" Lieberman and Republican John Warner - hardly the Democrat power structure.

Nordhaus and Schellenberger pretend to suggest novel ideas that haven't already been put forth by green business, environmentalists and others. They trade in shock to gullible right wingers who are ignorant about what is going on in green business and the environment.

That is, of course, if the underlying contract is the oil contract listed on Intrade. If it's a real oil future, then you're fucked. the link to the contract you provided didn't take me to the right place.

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