What is the rosy scenario?

Econbrowser assembles some bits of good economic news and the NYT offers a related report.  Is there any chance the worst is over?

The rosy scenario is that in a highly connected, internet-intensive world, the bad news travels far more quickly and far more convincingly than before.  The early stages of the downturn are like falling off a cliff.  We bottomed out maybe two weeks ago.  That said, the rebound also comes much more quickly.  Wages are more flexible than before.  Bad inventory policies are avoided through information technology.  The Fed responds to changing conditions ever more quickly.  Overall, economic time accelerates on both the downswing and the upswing.

I do not believe the rosy scenario, as I think there are still other "shoes to drop," most of all internationally.  I also think we will see a double-dip or triple-dip recession, as the Fed must eventually withdraw some of new money from the system.  Good news is then, in fact, simply a sign that some bad news is on the way, sooner or later.

Still, if you are looking for something to believe in, I offer you the rosy scenario.


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