What’s the chance the financial crisis was welfare-improving?

The price of corn, for example, is down 56 percent since July 2008 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Here is more.  I don't in fact think that the financial crisis has improved global welfare.  But we are trained to think probabilistically.  What is the chance that the gains from lower commodity prices — most of all for poor people who buy food — outweigh the losses from the collapse of world trade and lower overall growth?

Just wondering.

Addendum: Here are some related queries.


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