I can't get Don to bet that real oil prices will return to the energy cornucopian feast levels that they were at in the first post-World War II generation.
The most that he will bet is that the average price of some index of five resources will decline. That's not a good bet for me to take.
…It is somewhat odd: given that we have different beliefs about the world, there ought to be a bet we can make where we both think we have an edge.
(Update: Read Brad's post, it now turns out that Don has not refused the bet and Brad's original statement was in error.)
Note that if each already has bet optimally (relative to forecasts) in extant liquid markets, each should not wish to make an additional bet with the other at what are presumably above-average transactions costs. The real question here is which market bets the two already have made, or not, and thus we still do not know if they are jointly Hansonian, or not. We do know that the blogosphere does not threaten to displace the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.