Month: August 2011
The weirdness is still there. Menzie Chinn does the hard work and reports back:
Formal statistical tests indicate that the relationship between GDP growth and private employment growth has experienced breaks at each of the past two recessions, and strongly rejected stability (using 1-step-ahead recursive residual tests) in the last recession. This remains true regardless of whether one uses the pre-revision or post-revision data, although the rejection of stability is slightly less marked using the revised data.