Robin Hanson is forming a forecasting team, Kling and Schulz have a new edition

In response to the Philip Tetlock forecasting challenge, Robin is responding:

Today I can announce that GMU hosts one of the five teams, please join us! Active participants will earn $50 a month, for about two hours of forecasting work. You can sign up here, and start forecasting as soon as you are accepted.

There is more detail at the link.  Let’s see if he turns away the zero marginal product workers.

There is also a new paperback edition out of the excellent Arnold Kling and Nick Schulz book out, now entitled Invisible Wealth: The Hidden Story of How Markets Work.  The book has new forecasts…


It made zero news other than a few google+ posts and some angry comment, but we recently had a major failure of Intrade.

Gaddafi contract was at about ~67% once it became clear Gaddafi totally lost, because 1/3 of traders had no trust in Intrade's sanity. If traders don't trust prediction market for something as simple as Gaddafi, long term complex issues will never work on prediction markets.

Here's the problematic contract -

We need a lot more tools than prediction markets.

The contract just needed more specific terms.

And what would that specification be like? It was a very simple contract. How would you specify more interesting contracts for decades ahead?

Information markets have some value if each participant has some private information that they use and therefore place a more informed bet. How they can bet on Gaddafi or Santa Claus being spotted is beyond me.

Unfortunately, what I've seen in some cases is merely people signalling their identity or belief system by placing a low value bet that that tells the world who they are and what they belief in, regardless of whether they have any specific information.

Re the Kling book, blurbs are useless. We need blurbs that say things like "By being so exactly wrong, Kling and Schultz show the clear advantages of traditional econ!" Would that make me more likely to get the book? Possibly. Zizek has taken blurbing to obvious reductio by blurbing every book as the next Phenomenology of Spirit.

Dang! I already signed up for the Tetlock team but these guys look like they pay better. Clearly a forecasting failure on my part not to wait.

Same here. The dashboard & analyst's academy also look pretty solid.

Right. I'm on the Tetlock team aka Team Good Judgement also. I would have much preferred the 50 bucks a month, but hey! It's for science. Since it seems there are a bunch of Team Good Judgement people on this board, we should stay in contact. Maybe we should:
a.) choose a mascot for our team.
b.) choose our team colors.
c.) choose our fight song.
d.) compare notes with the better forecasters on our team, to improve all team member forecasting.
e.) kick Team Daggres' ass!

If you Team Good Judgement folks want to get organized, my e-mail address is egould2 [at] toromail [d0t] csudh [d0+] edu .

Me too - signed up for the Tetlock team. Can we switch teams?

Even if we could I find myself incapable of ignoring the sunk cost in the registration/training I did for the Tetlock team.

The fact that you want to switch teams is market information telling me something about your current time.

Quick, I want to make a prediction.

team, not time

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