ngdp minimalism

Could we circulate this as a petition and have the whole world sign it, paw prints and all?:

Ken Duda sent me some ideas that form a useful second step, still falling well short of NGDP targeting (an idea rapidly gaining popularity among the elite.)  Here’s Ken’s still extremely modest second set of steps:

1) publishing an NGDP forecast

2) publishing a forecast of how policy instrument settings would affect NGDP (“if we were to raise interest rates, we’d expect the NGDP level to be X% lower than if we hold interest rates at zero”).

3) forecasting what are desirable levels of NGDP, i.e., what NGDP level-path would be most consistent with the dual mandate, or what NGDP level-path would be consistent with what level of unemployment or inflation

4) operating a prediction market for any of the three above

I can’t even imagine how anyone could oppose any of those 4 steps, even if they were 100% opposed to NGDP targeting.  How would that information not be useful?

That is from Scott Sumner, the full post is here.


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