Vix is up 16% today, a sign that a Trump presidency is now seen as having a much more uncertain future. I agree with Charles Cooke that the 25th amendment is not really an option, nonetheless investigations will be proceeding, with the FBI and many Republicans not really on Trump’s side. It is not obvious that Trump will handle himself well during that process. The chances for tax and health care reform are dwindling. Many Republican leaders are pondering the logic of Timur Kuran, namely when they should flip out of their preference falsification and state their real views.
I think also that Trump’s instructions to Comey to halt the Flynn prosecution are significant. I view much of the press coverage as overstated or sometimes even hysterical, including for the Russia leaks, but the Comey business fits into the category of “impeachable offense.” A normal president would not be impeached for it, but Trump is not a normal president. The instructions to Comey would not be the actual reason he would be impeached, but they create a path along which an impeachment inquiry could proceed, nudged along by other “non-impeachable but unpopular and objectionable actions” Trump might take in the meantime, and what information might be revealed in the meantime. There are many shoes yet to drop. So my estimate of the chances of a Trump impeachment or resignation have gone up from about 5% to about 25%, in less than a two-day span.
Addendum: Do consider the remarks of Philip Wallach.