The forthcoming rate of economic growth?

With the current pace of development in AI and as demos turn into full featured products and services, I can see the overall US GDP growth rising from recent avg 2-3% to 20+% in 10 years This is a seismic shift, which is really hard to think and reason about…

That is from Mohammad Bavarian.  Somehow I do not think that will be the case, even in my most technologically optimistic moments.  As Brad DeLong stresses, the second Industrial Revolution starting about 1870 was the true one, and we woke up fifty years later to an entirely different world, based on electricity and consumer society and extreme physical mobility.  Yet I am not aware of any extreme gdp or productivity stats during the intermediate period.  In fact the numbers I have seen seem a little….mediocre.  I say side with the reality, not with the numbers, but this is one of the questions I wish was studied much more.  Is it simply the case that stringing together a series of qualitatively discrete changes inevitably will outrace our ability to measure it?

By the way, it seems the new malaria vaccine works pretty well.


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