AGI and the division of powers within government

I’m not sure the AGI concept is entirely well-defined, but let’s put aside the more dramatic scenarios and assume that AI can perform at least some of the following functions:

1. Evaluate many policies and regulations better than human analysts can.

2. Sometimes outperform and outguess asset price markets.

3. Formulate the most effective campaign strategies for politicians.

4. Understand and manage geopolitics better than humans can.

5. Write better Supreme Court opinions and, for a given ethical point of view, produce a better ruling.

You could add to that list, but you get the point.  These are a big stretch beyond current models, but not on the super-brain level.

One option, of course, is simply that everyone can use this service, like the current GPT-4, and then few questions arise about differential political access.  But what if the service is expensive, and/or access is restricted for reasons of law, regulation, and national security?  Exactly who or what in government allocates use of the service within government?

Can any member of the House of Representatives pay the service a visit and ask away?  Do incumbents then end up with a major new advantage over challengers?

How do you stop the nuttier Reps from giving away the information they can access, perhaps to unsalubrious parties or foreign powers?  Don’t national security issues suddenly become much tougher, as if all Reps suddenly are on the Senate Intelligence Committee?

Surely the President can claim it is a weapon of sorts and access it at will?  Can he or she veto the access of other individuals?  Will the rival running for President, from the other party, have any access at all?

Can the national security establishment veto the access of individuals within the political establishment?  If so, does the Executive Branch and national security establishment gain greatly in power?

Have we now created a kind of “fourth branch” of government?

Do we ask the AI who or what should get access?

Say the Republicans or Democrats win a trifecta?  Do they now have a kind of monopoly access over the AI?

Can the technically non-governmental Fed access it?  If so, just the chair, the whole FOMC, or the staff as well?  If the staff cannot access it, what good are they?

We haven’t even talked about federalism yet — what if a governor has a pressing query?  Will Texas build its own model?

Let’s say this is the UK — does the party in opposition have equal access to the AI?  Exactly which legal entity with which governance mechanism counts as “the party in opposition”?  Can you start a small party, opposing the national government, just to get access?

Say some Brits are in a coalition with one of those tiny parties from Northern Ireland.  Can the coalition partner demand access on equal terms?  (How about Sinn Fein?)  How about in PR systems?

Doesn’t this make all political coalitions higher stakes, more fraught, and more fragile?  And more suffused with security risks?

Inquiring minds wish to know.

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